NWS Salt Lake City, UT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 13, 2:57 AM MST, 3 hours 4 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 13, 2:57 AM MST, 3 hours 4 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
357 AM MDT Thu Mar 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A broad Pacific storm system will bring a potent cold
front across Utah and southwest Wyoming late Thursday afternoon
through early Friday. This will result in significant snow for the
mountains of Utah with some travel impacts for some valley
locations as well. A weaker storm will follow quickly on the heels
of this system for late Friday into Saturday, with an active
pattern continuing thereafter.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Sunday)...A large Pacific storm system is
making its way into the Great Basin this morning. Out ahead of it,
southwest flow has increased over Utah and southwest Wyoming,
particularly over western Utah where some gusts in excess of 40
mph continue to be observed, despite a relative lack of mixing
overnight. Moisture from the system is already advecting into the
area, resulting in the development of some light precipitation in
a warm advection regime. Radar and satellite data indicate this is
most numerous over northern Utah, particularly over the higher
terrain and north of I-80, and over southwest Utah, which is a bit
closer to the best energy from the system at this time.
For much of the day, the majority of the area will see mild and at
least breezy conditions, with precipitation continuing to become
more widespread in roughly the areas currently seeing
precipitation, as the system approaches. Snow levels will
initially be on the high side, around 6500 feet or so. Big changes
will come with the arrival of the front edge of the system and
associated potent cold front late this afternoon and into the
evening. Anticipating a banded feature with the boundary which
will bring the heaviest precipitation with the event, and the
associated cold air will allow snow levels to fall to most valley
floors. This will be the time for not just the heaviest
precipitation rates, but the greatest travel difficulties as
well. Given the late season nature of the system and guidance
indicating some modest CAPE, would not be surprised to see some
embedded thunderstorms and graupel for some areas. Going
headlines cover the travel impacts for the mountains and some
adjacent valleys well.
The storm system is expected to move quickly out of the area,
mostly exiting by mid-Friday morning. The wildcard will the the
potential development of lake effect or lake enhanced snow, which
current guidance indicates has a high chance of happening given
the unseasonably cold nature of the system as well as lingering
moisture and instability. Should a band develop, it would most
likely be positioned southeast of the GSL, which would put the
Bountiful Bench, eastern Salt Lake Valley, and the Cottonwoods in
its vicinity. Regardless, Utah and southwest Wyoming should see a
break, or at least relative lull, in precipitation Friday
afternoon into the evening. The break will be short lived,
however, with another system, albeit weaker, following for late
Friday into Saturday. Associated dynamics are less impressive, but
the system does have notable jet support and a good amount of
moisture with it. The precipitation will be primarily focused over
the mountains of northern Utah.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z Sunday)...By Sunday morning, an upper-
level ridge will be pushing into the western US, bringing drier
conditions and strong warm-air advection to the region. Temperatures
will rebound pretty quickly, rising back to near normal on Sunday
afternoon. Most areas will remain dry, though some moisture
filtering in over the top of the ridge could produce a few showers
across extreme northern Utah.
Heading into Monday, the pattern feels a bit like deja vu. Model
guidance suggests another highly-amplified longwave trough taking a
similar track to Thursday's system, with a similarly strong cold
front and gusty southwesterly winds ahead of the trough. With 700-mb
temperatures plummeting once again to -11C to -13C, minor valley
snow accumulations are possible once again. However, there are a
couple key differences from the last system. There is likely less
moisture to work with, especially across southern Utah, ultimately
limiting QPF. While there is still lower confidence in the track of
this trough, the main dynamics of the storm could track a little
further north than the last system, perhaps favoring northern areas
a bit more.
The pattern is likely to remain active, with the potential for a
couple (or a few) shortwave troughs after a brief ridge mid week.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Gusty southerly winds will continue until an
abrupt shift to northwesterly with a cold front around 02-03z. Rain
showers will begin to overspread the area after 13z, becoming more
widespread after 18-19z. There is a 10% chance of thunderstorms
during the afternoon, increasing to a 15% chance with the cold
front. Rain will likely transition quickly to snow with the cold
front, with the potential for IFR-LIFR conditions around 02-05z (75%
chance for IFR).
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Showers currently located over
KCDC-KBCE will continue to overspread the state during the early
morning hours, becoming more widespread after roughly 18z in most
areas. Most valley sites will experience rain to start, the
exceptions being KBCE and KEVW. Gusty southerly to southwesterly
winds will continue, likely peaking in the early afternoon. These
southwest winds will abruptly transition to northwesterly behind a
strong cold front later this afternoon/evening, reaching KENV around
22-23z, and many Wasatch Front sites between 01-04z. Sites are
likely to transition to snow with a brief period of IFR conditions
with this frontal passage. There is even a 10-15% chance of
thunderstorms along this frontal passage (a 10% chance in some areas
during the afternoon ahead of the front).
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for UTZ101-102-115-122.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT
Friday for UTZ104-105-108.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Friday for UTZ110.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for UTZ111.
Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday for UTZ112-113-117-
125.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT
Friday for UTZ116.
WY...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Cunningham
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