A ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest was slowly pulling moisture into the region from the west with several shortwave disturbances moving across the north. This along with diurnal heating resulted in a few thunderstorms with strong gusty winds as the low levels remain very dry.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest was slowly pulling moisture into the region from the west with several shortwave disturbances moving across the north. This along with diurnal heating resulted in a few thunderstorms with strong gusty winds as the low levels remain very dry. One particular storm over the Eastern Uinta Mountains produced outflow winds up to 59 mph at Vernal Regional Airport.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 2:07 PM MST, 23 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 307 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above-normal temperatures remain status quo through the seven- day forecast though a slight downward trend is expected after midweek. - Gusty outflow winds, lightning, and storms with little rainfall remain threats through midweek. - The trend for increased moisture by the end of the week continues to boost confidence that storms will transition from dry to wet. Storm coverage should increase as a result of the moisture as well from late week into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 242 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the region. Traffic cameras show that some precipitation is actually making it to the ground, but considering how dry our lower atmosphere is, virga is still anticipated with many of the showers and storms. As a result, the main concerns with thunderstorms are gusty outflow winds and lightning. Small hail is also possible, particularly with the stronger storms near our southern mountains. CAMs show most storm activity ending after sunset, but lingering showers may persist into the overnight hours. Tomorrow moisture advection will increase shower and storm coverage across the region, and increase chances of precipitation making it to the ground. With moisture moving in dryness should subside a bit over the coming days, but today and tomorrow afternoon relative humidity values will still drop below 15% in many areas, particularly in desert valleys. As a result, localized Red Flag conditions are possible through the short term where gusts exceed critical fire weather thresholds. High temperatures will remain above average, but tomorrows highs are expected to be a few degrees cooler than today. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 242 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 On Thursday, the high pressure begins to migrate towards the Southern Plains allowing for southerly flow over us. This should advect better moisture into the area so expect another round of afternoon convection with the highest chances across the south. On Friday and Saturday a weak low pressure moving northward over the Baja may help to enhance the southerly flow and moisture advection. Therefore the coverage of showers and storms looks to increase across the area. The potential for moderate to heavy rainfall looks to increase during this period as well as PWAT values approach 0.75- 1.0 in, 700 mb mixing ratios around 7 k/kg and dew points above 40 F. One factor working against heavy rain for the lower valleys is the warm conditions supporting sub-cloud evaporation. Although it is not out of the question given the moisture. The higher terrain may end up being primed for heavy rain, rock slides and debris flows. Eventually perhaps late in the weekend the northern jet stream sinks southward causing drier air to filter in from the west. This could change the afternoon convection coverage and intensity. With increasing moisture and cloud cover, high temperatures begin a steady decline towards more seasonable temperatures by the time the weekend arrives. However, this will also prevent overnight lows from cooling off as much. Lows are projected to be 5-10 degrees above normal through much of the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1132 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Showers and storms are possible this afternoon and evening. The main impact will be wind gusts of 30-50 mph mainly in the late afternoon into the evening. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...GF LONG TERM...KJS AVIATION...DB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 428 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-161030- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-Upper Gunnison River Valley- Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-Northwest San Juan Mountains- Southwest San Juan Mountains-Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 428 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Colorado, southwest Colorado, west central Colorado, east central Utah, northeast Utah and southeast Utah. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hot and dry conditions keep temperatures trending 5 degrees above average. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on the terrain increase this afternoon with dry lightning and gusty outflows possible under collapsing storms. Wildfire smoke will remain visible across the central and southern areas of the CWA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Hot and dry conditions will continue through the week. Afternoon showers and storms on terrain will remain in the forecast, increasing in coverage through the latter half of the week. Increasing moisture will limit chances for dry lightning later in the week and bring increased chances for wetting rain across the higher terrain. Wildfire smoke will remain visible for much of eastern Utah and western Colorado though the wetting rains later in the week could help diminish smoke. Conditions dry out Sunday into early next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
140 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0103 PM Tornado 4 NNE La Sal 38.38N 109.14W
07/12/2025 San Juan UT Other Federal
Fire induced tornado at the Deer Creek
wildfire.
&&
KAAThe Grand Junction radar (KGJX), 189 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:32 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A strong thunderstorm over the Eastern Uinta Mountains produced outflow winds up to 59 mph, which was a measured peak wind gust at the Vernal Regional Airport at 1444 MST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Utah in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Utah, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1285748.