Flood in Florida, July 15, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1027 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

- An area of low pressure and associated deep moisture moves over
  central Florida today and into tonight. Above-normal lightning
  storm chances and locally heavy rainfall will be the primary
  impacts.

- Daily rain chances remain high, up to around 80% through
  midweek as the disturbance continues to pull deep moisture over
  the peninsula as it moves into the Gulf.

- A more seasonal pattern returns late week with rain chances
  returning closer to normal by Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1026 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Low pressure (designated Invest 93L) will push onshore the east
coast of Florida today and shift westward. North-northeast shear
on the system will continue to concentrate persistent banding of
heavier showers and isolated storms to the south-southwest of the
center. With deep tropical moisture in place this activity will
be efficient rainfall makers, easily producing 1-3 inches of
rainfall, with localized totals of 4-7 inches possible. Isolated
flash flooding may occur across locations that do see some of
these locally higher totals, mainly across Lake/Volusia counties
southward through Osceola and Brevard counties. Have therefore
issued a Flood Watch for this area through 8 PM this evening.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Today... IR satellite imagery shows a weak area of low pressure
offshore the central Florida Atlantic coast gradually becoming
better defined. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor
this feature, now highlighting a 40% chance for tropical depression
to form over the next two days. Regardless of tropical of
development, the low is expected to move westward across the Florida
peninsula today and tonight, before reaching the northeast Gulf into
Wednesday. Southwest of the low's center, a band of disorganized
showers and isolated storms is observed. This activity is expected
to slowly approach the area early this morning, reaching portions
of the east central Florida coastline before sunrise. Subsequent
shower and storm development is expected to move across the local
area through the day as the low passes central Florida. While
everywhere will not see continuous rain all day, forecast trends
expect widespread coverage of showers and storms (~80-90%) with
some areas seeing multiple rounds. HREF mean QPF generally
suggests widespread amounts near or less than 1", but localized
totals up to 4.5" will be possible across the eastern side of the
peninsula. Low lying and poor drainage areas which receive these
localized higher totals will be vulnerable to ponding of water and
minor flooding. In addition to a localized flood threat, RAP
model analysis indicates enough instability (CAPE ~ 2,000 J/kg) to
promote an isolated lightning storm threat. Stronger storms which
develop will be capable of water loaded down drafts producing
wind gusts of 40-50 mph. Temperatures are expected to be highly
influenced by cloud cover and increased rain chances with highs in
the mid to upper 80s. A tropical airmass will keep conditions
muggy with peak heat index values ranging the mid 90s to low
100s.

Wednesday-Thursday... The area of low pressure emerges into the
northeastern Gulf by Wednesday. As the low departs, the ridge axis
of the Atlantic high extends westward across central Florida,
establishing southerly flow. Tropical moisture remains in place on
Wednesday, becoming reinforced by a secondary wave of moisture off
the Bahamas on Thursday. Continued deep moisture and lingering waves
of vorticity aloft will keep a wet pattern in place each day with
peak rain chances between 70-80 percent. Decreasing cloud cover on
Wednesday should increase surface instability, fueling an
isolated storm threat. Stronger storms which develop Wednesday
will be capable of frequent lightning strikes, wind gust of 45-50
mph, and torrential downpours. Cloud cover looks to rebuild on
Thursday, at least across the south, and storm hazards remain a
tad more uncertain. Temperatures return closer to normal through
the period with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows in the low
to mid 70s Wednesday morning trend a few degrees warmer into
Thursday morning.

Friday-Monday... Broad mid level ridging slides over Florida late
week and through the weekend. At the surface, the western flank of
the Atlantic high extends across central Florida and into the Gulf.
A more summerlike pattern of scattered afternoon showers and storms
returns, guided by the sea breeze circulation. High temperatures
warm into the low to mid 90s each day, with peak heat index values
forecast to range 100-106 degrees.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1026 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

(Modified Previous Discussion) Low pressure across the local
Atlantic waters this morning will move onshore and across the
Florida peninsula today. Variable winds are expected in vicinity
of the low before becoming southerly as the low pushes onshore.
Poor boating conditions are forecast, mainly north of Sebastian
Inlet where winds will be up to 15 to 20 knots. Have added small
craft exercise caution headlines across this portion of the
waters for today.

Southerly flow becomes further reinforced into mid week as high
pressure builds across the waters, and small craft should exercise
caution tonight and into Wednesday as winds increase to 15-20
kts. Seas build to 2-3 ft. High coverage of showers and storms
(70-90%) is forecast to continue through Thursday with a more
summerlike pattern returning late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 649 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Unsettled conditions continue with an area of low pressure just
off of the east FL coast. This feature is forecast to reach the
coast by late morning/early afternoon and continue a slow westward
motion across the peninsula during the day and evening. One of
the biggest challenges early remains the forecasted prevailing IFR
CIGs (local LIFR) for some TAF sites, mainly near KMLB northward.
With deep moisture in place expect a higher than normal showery
threat with embedded lighting storms as well. CAMs continue to
struggle with placement, timing and coverage of activity. Will
handle in TAFs with "Vicinity" wording, TEMPO groups as necessary,
and prevailing when possible esp along the coast early this
morning, with activity spreading further inland during daylight
hours and increasing in coverage with limited heating. With
uncertainty regarding the low's track, directional wind component
remains tricky, though wind speeds typically below 15 kts. Expect
MVFR CIGs/VSBYs invof convection. Primary heavy shower or storm
impacts include locally gusty winds, torrential downpours, and
lightning strikes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  74  90  76 /  90  30  80  10
MCO  88  74  91  76 /  90  40  80  20
MLB  87  76  89  78 /  90  40  80  20
VRB  88  72  90  75 /  90  40  80  20
LEE  86  74  90  76 /  90  40  80  20
SFB  87  75  91  76 /  90  30  80  10
ORL  88  75  91  76 /  90  40  80  20
FPR  87  73  89  75 /  90  40  80  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Sedlock