NWS Salt Lake City, UT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 7, 4:19 AM MST, 21 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 7, 4:19 AM MST, 21 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
419 AM MST Fri Feb 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A quick moving system will bring impacts to the region
through Saturday morning. Drier and cooler air settle in behind this
system and linger into at least early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/5AM Sunday)...A somewhat compact shortwave
trough embedded within the longerwave pattern will pivot through
the region during the short term, along with a quick moving cold
front. Gusty winds will develop ahead of this frontal boundary, with
a more brief period of gusty post-frontal winds in its wake. In
addition to a period of upslope flow and orographic mountain
precipitation, a fairly narrow band of stronger precipitation will
accompany the front as it moves through the area.
Starting with winds, strong H7 winds of roughly 30-55 kts ahead of
the frontal boundary are already translating to gusty conditions at
the surface this morning. Fairly widespread 30-50 mph gusts have
already been observed across the previous Wind Advisory area, and
anticipate this will continue, if not increase, as we move past
sunrise. As such, went ahead and started the Wind Advisories early.
A greater than 70% chance of wind gusts up to 55 mph or so is still
noted. Stronger prefrontal gusts will be likely on a localized scale
in areas immediately downwind of terrain such as the Stansburys or
Oquirrhs. Additionally, HREF odds have further improved in similar
conditions across the Great Salt Lake Desert zone, and thus opted to
expand the ongoing Wind Advisory. This area in particular also tends
to do well when the post-frontal northwesterly winds kick in,
especially near the state line on I-80 where strong gusts downslope
off the terrain. With the strong winds, also continue to anticipate
periods of blowing dust. Finally, guidance continues to support a
period of very strong winds across Uinta County Wyoming, with gusts
to or in excess of 60 mph likely. The most favored period appears to
be roughly from 9am to 2pm or so, after which more modest
postfrontal winds develop. The High Wind Warning has been maintained
as-is. In general, winds will gradually decrease in the post-frontal
environment Friday night.
For the precipitation side of the front, the forecast hasn't changed
significantly. Ongoing west to southwesterly upslope flow will
continue for the northern mountains ahead of the front, with
precipitation chances continuing to increase accordingly. For lower
elevations, there remains some questions on the definition/breadth
of the front, though CAM guidance generally maintains it'll likely
be fairly narrow in nature, and quick moving in a northwest to
southeast manner. Timing shows rough consensus in this moving
through the northern Wasatch/Cache Valley area around 8am to noon,
Ogden/Salt Lake Valley/Tooele Valley around 11am to 3pm, and Utah
Valley around 3pm to 6pm or so. Definition appears to get a bit
looser as it spreads further southward thereafter into the evening.
With good PVA ahead of the shortwave impulse, strong upper jet
support, and a strong well defined baroclinic zone, the front will
likely carry a somewhat stronger band of precipitation and
associated rates. HREF even carries a small corridor of around 50-
100 J/kg CAPE ahead of the front, and as such wouldn't be entirely
shocked to see a few isolated lightning flashes.
For accumulations, all that said, lower levels still look to remain
too warm to see precip to fall as snow for lower northern valleys,
outside of maybe a narrow window before precip completely ceases
behind the front when snow levels will be rapidly falling. For
higher elevation mountain routes and mountain valleys, the period of
frontal passage would mark the most likely time to see some
accumulating snow and associated impacts. Accumulations overall have
also not changed significantly. For mountain valleys throughout the
Wasatch Back, a general 1-3" seems reasonable, though wouldn't be
surprised to see some higher areas such as around Park City do a bit
better. For the northern mountains themselves, a general 6-10" still
remains in the deterministic forecast, with locally higher amounts
in portions of the Upper Cottonwoods and high Uintas. With a lower
advisory threshold for snow accumulation in the western Uintas (and
given very gusty winds), opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory
there.
Increasing subsidence and intrusion of dry air will result in
lingering precipitation largely wrapping up Friday night into
Saturday morning, with the exception of some lighter mountain snow
showers persisting. Colder air will result in a noticeable drop in
temperatures as well, though even then afternoon highs Saturday
across the northern half of the forecast region will come in near
climatological normal, and highs across southern Utah likely will
remain above normal.
.LONG TERM...(After 12Z/5AM Sunday)...The long term period will
start with near normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions as
zonal flow dominates. A cold trough with limited moisture will drop
temperatures about 10 degrees below normal for Tuesday and
Wednesday. This will be followed by a more substantial moisture
laden trough towards the end of the week.
A broad trough centered over interior Canada will keep us positioned
on the southwestern periphery through the first half of the week.
This will keep a light westerly/southwesterly flow aloft through
early Tuesday that will result in near seasonal temperatures and
mostly dry conditions. A more robust lobe of this trough will dive
south out of northern Canada on Tuesday with a frontal passage some
time Tuesday afternoon. Ensemble members are in good agreement in
the origin of the trough, but there is some slight variability on
whether it dives further southwest or stays further northeast.
Regardless, the mostly continental origins of the airmass will limit
any moisture it's able to produce. The main impact from this will be
much colder air. H7 temperatures between -16 to -20 are advertised
amongst the ensemble members. This would translate to surface
temperatures about 10 degrees below normal. The best location to see
some moisture will be closer to the four corners region where
slightly better synoptic ascent will be located.
This trough quickly shifts to the east with southwesterly flow aloft
returning for Thursday. This will help to advect moisture back into
the region ahead of a trough moving into northern California. All
the ensemble members depict this signal, but ~50% of members are
more robust with widespread moisture by the end of the week. The
other 50% still have widespread moisture, but not as deep of a
trough with weaker dynamics. With southwesterly flow ahead of the
trough, prefrontal P-Type will need to be monitored. Right now
frontal passage looks to be some time late Friday. This will usher
in colder H7 temperatures near -10C that will aid in lowering snow
levels. The airmass following the frontal passage doesn't look
totally dry, so moisture could linger into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Southerly winds have begun and will continue
gusting throughout the day. Additionally, mid to high level cloud
coverage will continue to increase throughout the day with CIG
reductions expected in the late afternoon throughout the evening
hours. Some scattered -RA and BLDU is possible and may reduce vsbys
today with mountain obscurations possible. Following this, a wind
shift to northwesterly around 18-21z following the passage of a cold
front is expected with skies gradually clearing into Saturday in its
wake.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Gusty winds out of the south
will continue through the majority of the day today, subsiding early
Saturday morning. Our northern Utah and southwest Wyoming sites may
see scattered -RA and -SN starting in the afternoon with our
southern Utah sites seeing mostly scattered -RA, if at all. Winds
will shift to northwesterly in the evening hours following the
passage of a cold front.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for UTZ101-102.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for UTZ112.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for UTZ115-122.
WY...High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
afternoon for WYZ021.
&&
SHORT TERM...Warthen
LONG TERM...Mahan
AVIATION...Worster
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