NWS Salt Lake City, UT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 17, 3:12 AM MST, 8 hours 48 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Dec 17, 3:12 AM MST, 8 hours 48 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
312 AM MST Wed Dec 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong westerly winds develop early Wednesday across northern
Utah and southwest Wyoming, peaking with a frontal passage in
the afternoon. Strongest winds in excess of 60 mph are expected
across northwest Utah and Uinta County, WY.
- Expect valley rain and high elevation snow on Wednesday,
associated with increased moisture from an atmospheric river.
- Another warm storm brings increased winds and another shot of
rain and high elevation snow to northern Utah Friday into
Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/5AM Friday)...An enhanced Pacific jet
squeezed between broad high pressure extending through the east
Pacific and a strong low in the Gulf of Alaska is resulting in
increasingly strong moisture advection into the western United
States. Local area radars are just starting to pick up on
precipitation shifting into the area, and will likely see this
trend continue across northern portions of the area as we push
closer to sunrise and synoptic forcing for ascent increases within
the increasingly moist environment (PWATs around 200-250% of
normal).
Given how strong the upper level winds (250 mb jet in excess of
150 kts) and lower level winds are (700 mb ~50-65 kts), strong
surface wind gusts are expected to be a potential issue Wednesday.
This will be particularly true across northern Utah, southwestern
Wyoming, and high northern terrain where this flow is maximized.
Strong westerly gusts will start to develop as mixing increases
pushing into the daytime, and then likely become maximized late
morning into mid afternoon ahead of and along an advancing
frontal boundary. Models have not changed significantly between
forecast cycles, so thoughts on gust magnitudes remain largely
unchanged. For most northern Utah valleys, gusts in the 40-55 mph
range are expected. In areas that will downslope off of nearby
terrain, gusts in excess of 60 mph will become more likely. Models
continue to highlight southwest Wyoming as the most likely area
to see frequent gusts in excess of 60 mph, with around a 10-20%
chance of a few gusts exceeding 70 mph. Given the exceptionally
strong jet flow many mountain ridgelines will see gusts to 80 mph,
and the highest elevation ridgelines will have potential to see
gusts over 100 mph. Given limited changes, will opt to maintain
the ongoing wind headlines. If you haven't already, securing any
outdoor decorations or otherwise wind sensitive items early in the
morning may be a good idea. Those planning on travel (especially
with high profile vehicles) should be prepared for strong gusts.
While not rising to headline level, south to southwest Utah will
also see some modest gusts in the 20-40 mph range.
Precipitation potential will also increase as a strong mid level
impulse shifts by, and an associated frontal boundary pushes
southward into the region. As such, the northern half of the
forecast region, especially higher terrain and nearer the ID
border, will see increasing precip chances through the morning
becoming maximized along the aforementioned frontal boundary late
morning through the afternoon. Snow levels ahead of the boundary
will start around 8500-9000 ft, quickly dropping to below 5000 ft
late Wednesday evening as cold air within the more post-frontal
northwesterly flow kicks in. That said, moisture will also be
quickly scouring out, minimizing the window for any low elevation
snow. In any case, accumulating (or even measurable) valley snow
remains highly unlikely. Mountain snow, dense in nature given the
mild conditions, will likely accumulate to some extent. Current
forecast supports a general 2-4" for much of the northern
mountains (higher amounts in favored areas such as upper
Cottonwoods, Bear River Range, etc.), with amounts more in the
4-7" range for portions of the high Uintas (generally above 9000
ft).
One additional note for Wednesday is the potential for some
isolated thunderstorms along the frontal boundary. HREF mean shows
SBCAPE of around 50-100 J/kg (90th percentile with pockets up to
~200 J/kg), which would be sufficient for this, and the strong jet
flow will yield ample shear. While the threat of organized severe
weather is unlikely, any updraft even modestly strong may be able
to mix some of those enhanced jet winds downward to the surface.
In any case, some people may hear a rumble of thunder or two.
After a relative break Wednesday night into early Thursday,
moisture and precipitation chances will once again start to
increase across the north mid morning into the afternoon. Snow
levels will start out fairly low given the prior intrusion of
colder 700 mb temps, potentially allowing for some low elevation
flakes to mix in initially, but temps warm quickly through the day
pushing snow levels up with it. May see some very light (T to
0.3" or so) amounts in more northern areas such as the Cache and
Bear River Valley, but most low elevation locations will not see
measurable amounts. Even northern mountains won't squeeze much out
of this, with forecast carrying a broad 0.5-1", with closer to
1-4" in the Bear River Range.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/5AM Friday)...There will be largely dry
conditions throughout southwest Wyoming and Utah to start Friday,
excluding far northern Utah, where there will remain sufficient
moisture and forcing as the atmospheric river (AR) event from
Thursday lifts north. Snow levels will be around 7000 feet, with
minimal accumulation. There will be another surge of wind,
especially for southwest Wyoming and northern Utah, ahead of
another AR event. Winds will be from the west to southwest,
associated with warm air advection and valley high temperatures in
the 50s to low 60s, around 20F warmer than normal.
The AR event that will track into the PacNW Thursday will slide
south through Friday. That will bring moisture advection and
forcing associated with a jet streak in already impressive
westerly flow. Precipitation probability will increase from north
to south through Friday afternoon, with valley rain and mountain
snow for southwest Wyoming and much of northern Utah Friday night
through Saturday. Snow levels through late Friday will be around
7000 feet near the Idaho border and 7500 feet for the Cottonwoods.
Despite strong forcing, there won't be strong cold air advection
as the baroclinic zone pushes through into Saturday because of the
warmer source of the AR. Snow levels will lower to around 5500
feet near the Idaho border and 7000 feet for the Cottonwoods as
precipitation tapers significantly later Saturday. Water content
will range from 0.75- 1.50" for the Bear River Range and from
0.50-1.00" for the Uintas and Cottonwoods. Snow ratios will range
from 5-10:1 most of the event. Snow accumulation will be
influenced by how far north and the elevation of a location, with
the most accumulation around ridgelines in far northern Utah.
Nearby valleys, including the urban corridor of northern Utah,
will have rainfall ranging from 0.10- 0.50". Weak cold air
advection will lower valley high temperatures Saturday to around
50F for northern Utah.
Another surge of AR moisture will track into the western U.S. for
the end of the weekend. The main difference will be that this
will have a more southern track, which will bring downslope flow
from the Sierra Nevada Mountains. The track would result in the
majority of precipitation north of Utah.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Southeast winds will increase, with gusts around
20 knots, from 12-15Z and 25 knots from 15-19Z. A west crosswind,
with gusts around 30 knots, will be in place from roughly 19-21Z
as a cold front pushes through. Winds will transition to northwest
around 21Z, with gusts around 25 knots. Broken to overcast low
clouds and rain showers will prevail much of that time, with a
range of MVFR conditions with rain to VFR.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...A cold front will track
across southwest Wyoming and northern Utah. Ahead of that,
southeast to southwest winds will gust from 20-30 knots for
northern Utah and from 30-40 knots, with peaks in excess of 50
knots, for southwest Wyoming. Broken to overcast low clouds with
rain showers will result in a range from MVFR to VFR conditions
from roughly 12-00Z. Throughout southern Utah, there will be
mostly clear conditions with southwest winds gusting around 25
knots at KCDC from 18-00Z.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
afternoon for UTZ101.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon
for UTZ102>105-107-109-110.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this evening
for UTZ114.
WY...High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
evening for WYZ021.
&&
SHORT TERM...Warthen
LONG TERM...Wilson
AVIATION...Wilson
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