Flash Flood in Texas, September 28, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1233 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1223 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop
  this afternoon and evening across locations west of the Pecos
  River.

- Showers and storms could produce heavy rainfall, which may lead
  to instances of flash flooding over portions of southeast New
  Mexico, the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, Van Horn Corridor,
  and Marfa Plateau, especially during the afternoon and evening
  hours.

- A warmer and drier pattern sets up next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

An upper-level low that has moved little over the vicinity of
southern California during the past 24 hours is forecast to open
into a trough today and slowly advance toward the Four Corners
today and tonight. Southwesterly flow aloft will increase across
western portions of our forecast area in advance of this system
today, with the flow pattern also becoming increasingly difluent
over these locations this afternoon into this evening. A very
moist airmass will remain in place across locations west of the
Pecos River Valley with precipitable water values up to 1.1 to 1.3
inches. Ascent will also spread over these areas within the
increasingly difluent flow aloft this afternoon and evening, and
we expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to
develop especially along and west of an Artesia, Carlsbad,
Balmorhea, Alpine/Marfa line by this afternoon and evening, and we
will keep rain chances very high between 50-80 percent over these
areas. A few of the CAMs, including the 00z/06z HRRR and the 00z
ARW have been consistently showing potential for heavy rainfall
producing storms over western portions of the forecast area this
afternoon and evening considering the anomalously moist PWAT
airmass that is in place. Showers and thunderstorms will have the
potential to be efficient rainfall producers, potentially dropping
around or just above 1" of rainfall in some areas within a short
amount of time which could lead to flash flooding. We have opted
to issue a Flood Watch for the Eddy County NM plains (the western
half of this zone in particular), the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains, Van Horn Corridor/Culberson County, and the Marfa
Plateau region this afternoon where pockets of very heavy rainfall
will be possible with showers/storms this afternoon and evening.
A few storms may be capable of producing strong/gusty winds, small
hail, and frequent lightning strikes. Rain chances decrease
considerably over central/eastern portions of the forecast area
today and tonight. Will keep lower rain chances (20-30%) intact as
far east as the far western Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos
region, and the Big Bend, while dry conditions are anticipated
over the central/eastern Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Rain chances
should drop off by late tonight, though we will keep low POPs
(20-30 percent) in place through the night over western portions
of the area ahead of the approaching upper-level trough.

The upper-level trough axis will lift across southeast New Mexico
and much of west Texas during the day Monday. Residual moisture
and lift associated with this system will support keeping a
continued low (20-40 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast for the western half of the area, while the
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos looks to remain dry for the
most part (POPs 10 percent or less). Highs today and Monday will
be coolest over western portions of the CWA, where readings will
range in the 70s (60s higher elevations) given the extensive
cloud cover/rain chances. Highs over the remainder of the area
will mostly range in the 80s, except for 90s along the Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Rain chances come to an end by Monday night as the upper-level
trough moves to the east of our region. Upper-level ridging will
build back into the forecast area through the rest of the upcoming
week, so expect a warming trend with a return to dry weather
conditions Tuesday through Friday. Temperatures will average
above normal each day, especially during the middle to latter part
of the week when highs reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s over
much of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

TS is developing this afternoon in southeastern New Mexico and the
Trans Pecos. Currently only expect TS to affect CNM with storms in
the flying area around PEQ and HOB but not in the immediate
vicinity. The threat will remain for the next 6-12 hours before
diminishing after 06Z. Otherwise VFR conditions and light
southeast winds will be dominant.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               86  62  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 77  61  80  57 /  50  40  30   0
Dryden                   89  65  86  61 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            87  65  83  59 /  10  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           68  57  71  56 /  80  50  30   0
Hobbs                    81  61  79  56 /  20  20  20   0
Marfa                    77  56  76  50 /  50  50  30   0
Midland Intl Airport     87  65  83  60 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                   86  65  82  60 /  10  10  10   0
Wink                     86  63  83  58 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for Chinati Mountains-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch through this evening for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...10