A short wave trough moving southeastward across the Central Plains combined with low level upslope flow into New Mexico creating scattered thunderstorms on the afternoon of the 23rd. These storms marched across central and eastern New Mexico through the late afternoon and evening hours crossing into West Texas late in the evening.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
A short wave trough moving southeastward across the Central Plains combined with low level upslope flow into New Mexico creating scattered thunderstorms on the afternoon of the 23rd. These storms marched across central and eastern New Mexico through the late afternoon and evening hours crossing into West Texas late in the evening. This cluster of thunderstorms produced a severe wind gust near Plains (Yoakum County).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 23, 5:01 PM CST, 5 hours 22 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 601 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 557 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 - Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move across West Texas during the overnight hours. - Conditions dry out Wednesday, with much cooler temperatures. - Dry and warm conditions are forecast through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 A few changes have been made to the short-term forecast, but the synoptic theme remains on track. In the mid/upper-levels, an intense shortwave trough, with an embedded closed low, was digging into the Sawatch and Mosquito Ranges. A pair of 300-200 mb jet streaks near 75 kt were phasing at the apex of the subtropical ridge, the latter of which was centered over central Mexico, and will remain amplified as the shortwave trough begins to eject into the Great Plains. The intensity of the cross-barrier flow continues to generate mountain waves, and these waves are evident on recent water-vapor imagery and via the formation of cirrocumulus lenticularis observed yesterday, which demarcate the intense, westerly, high-level flow. The vortex embedded within the shortwave trough extends through 250 mb, but it will open as the system emerges over western KS by sunset. Farther west, a closed low offshore SoCal has since become cut-off, as it lags behind the semi-progressive wave train over the Lower 48 and well to the south of the jet stream. This cut-off low will meander offshore SoCal for the next 24-36 hours, as the development of a pseudo-Rex Block was observed on the 12Z objectively analyzed UA charts over the Cascade and Klamath Mountains. At the surface, the cold front has moved into the Permian Basin up on the Caprock, and bends northeastward across the Rolling Plains to the west of SPS. The front will temporarily become quasi-stationary in the far southeastern Rolling Plains this afternoon, but it will still progress to the south and east of the CWA. Storm chances have been removed for this afternoon across the southeastern zones, as the brisk, post-frontal winds will persist area-wide and keep any convergence out of the CWA. Currently, there is a 25 degrees temperature gradient across the CWA, with a temperature of 64 degrees in Dimmitt and 90 degrees in Aspermont. Highs for this afternoon were tweaked, but will still range from near 80 degrees in the far southwestern TX PH to the middle 90s in the southeastern Rolling Plains. Thunderstorm chances will increase late tonight as the shortwave trough ejects into the central Great Plains, with its base translating over the CWA. Several fast-moving clusters of storms are expected to move eastward from eastern NM and across the southern half of the CWA tonight, followed by an eventual movement towards the southeast during the early morning hours Wednesday. These convective elements will be elevated, which will mitigate the potential for damaging winds, but a couple of instances of small hail mixed with heavy rainfall will be possible as the mid-levels cool. The severe weather threat is low tonight into early Wednesday morning. Due to the progressiveness of this shortwave trough, any residual showers will finally exit the CWA shortly after sunrise Wednesday, and flash flooding is not expected despite the potential for multiple swaths of heavy rainfall. NBM PoPs were adjusted to reflect the best timing. Fair weather will follow, with mild temperatures and a northerly breeze expected Wednesday. Sincavage && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Benign weather is forecast Thursday into Friday, as the shortwave trough pivots into the Mississippi River Valley and the cut-off low previously located offshore SoCal moves inland, shifting the center of a low-amplitude ridge over the region. A gradual warming trend will follow, with return flow becoming established by Friday as large-scale, leeward pressure falls are restored across the entire Great Plains via the northern-stream troughing. Global NWP guidance is in agreement with a block-like pattern over the Lower 48, with the northern-stream trough translating near and over the Medicine Line/49th parallel. The cut-off low will eventually lose its barotropy this weekend, as geopotential height falls are induced by the right-exit region to a shortwave trough upstream over the far northeastern Pacific Ocean, but the low will still remain closed as it phases with the southern-stream split in the flow. NBM PoPs may be a bit generous for the western zones, as storm chances will be contingent on the position of the closed low until it dissolves into an open wave and ejects eastward into the Great Plains. Very warm temperatures are otherwise forecast this weekend as the shortwave ridge gradually moves over the region. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 557 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 A cluster of thunderstorms is expected to move into the region from New Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. These storms could affect the KLBB terminal during this time period. The cold front that moved through early this morning will get a reinforcing push on Wednesday morning bringing breezy northerly winds to all TAF sites. Also, a brief period of low CIGS is possible at KLBB and KPVW, mostly before sunrise. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...01
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1216 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 TXZ021>044-241730- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 1216 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move through West Texas after sunset and into early Wednesday morning. The severe weather threat is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. The probability for hazardous weather is low.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 106 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:23 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Plains measured a severe wind gust of 59 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1286091.