Drought in Florida, September 23 to 30, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
706 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Low-level easterly flow will continue through Tuesday morning,
before turning a bit more southerly later Tuesday. Meanwhile,
satellite-derived PW imagery shows values ranging from 1.3 inches
in a drier pocket NW of Albany to 1.8 inches down around Cross
City. So the air mass is moist enough for afternoon and early
evening convection, with an isolated thunderstorm possible where
the PW exceeds 1.5 inches. On Tuesday afternoon, this will be
favored along the seabreeze from Bay County around to Dixie
County, with the most favored area inland of Apalachicola. Our
Alabama and Georgia counties on Tuesday should end up just a
little too dry to support PM convection. Considering the
spottiness of rainfall today and Tuesday, there will not be
drought relief through Tuesday.

Otherwise, above normal temperatures will continue, with inland
high temperatures in the 90-95 degree range.

&&

.SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

A moistening trend will characterize the middle of the week as low-
level flow gradually veers from the east to the southeast/south. A
slow-moving, positvely-tilted trough axis is set to push through
much of the eastern U.S. on Thursday/Friday, draping a cold front
across the SE. This feature will bring the first substantial
rainfall for the region in weeks, however it is unlikely to make a
dent in the current drought conditions, as mean QPF totals indicate
rainfall totals of around 0.5-1.0in. Even taking the upper-end of
probabilistic guidance (90th percentile), QPF totals are still
maxing out at around 1.5-2.0in. So, while the upcoming precipitation
totals will be very welcome, the region will likely still come out
of the event under prevailing drought conditions. Following frontal
passage by Saturday, drier and slightly cooler air will filter
through the region, bringing high and low temperatures down to the
mid-high 80s and mid-high 60s, respectively.

The forecast then becomes somewhat muddled due to possibility of a
cutoff low forming as the parent trough races NE. Both the
deterministic GFS and ECMWF model solutions show this occuring to
different degrees, with the GFS showing the cutoff low hugging the
Gulf coast as it meanders westward through early next week. The
ECMWF, on the other hand, shows this low meandering southward over
the FL peninsula before dissipating. Neither the GEFS or the EPS
explicitly show this cutoff low developing, though this could be a
result of diverging solutions from individual ensemble members
causing the finer details of the cutoff low to become washed out.
The inherent uncertainty in forecasting any cutoff low plus the wide
range of model solutions makes this an especially uncertain
forecast. For now, low-end afternoon rain chances are kept in the
forecast on Sunday and Monday afternoons to reflect the potential
for this feature to influence our pattern via some upper-level
support despite the drier post-frontal conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Light and variable winds are expected for the overnight hours
tonight. Patchy fog is likely to develop prior to daybreak
Tuesday; affecting VLD, ABY, and TLH terminals. IFR cigs are
possible with vsbys around 2-4 SM. The fog is expected to clear
around 14z, with cigs lifting soon afterwards. VFR conditions are
expected for the rest of the TAF period for all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Easterly winds continue one more day into Tuesday but they will
begin to weaken and turn southerly through the week. Given
easterly flow regime into Tuesday, a brief moderate easterly surge
is possible tonight off the northern Florida Peninsula into
Apalachee Bay. Seas will remain around 1 to 2 feet. Scattered
showers and storms are likely starting Thursday morning through
Saturday as a cold front pushes through the area. Despite this
approaching front, winds and seas are likely to remain below
cautionary levels through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Above normal temperatures will continue through Thursday. High
afternoon dispersion is expected through Thursday over inland
districts, mainly due to a deep mixed layer. A cold front will sag
into the region late this week, bringing the next regional-scale
chance of rain on Thursday on Friday. Many spots will get a wetting
rain in excess of 1/4 inch of rain, but amounts will generally stay
below 1 inch.

Patchy fog is likely along and east of the U.S. 19 corridor on
Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. In addition, patchy fog is
possible over the inland Florida Panhandle on Wednesday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.

The next regional-scale rain chance will come with the approach of
a cold front later this week on Thursday and Friday. Forecast
rainfall amounts are generally in the 1/2 to 1 inch range, with
localized amounts of 2 inches possible. Given the dry conditions
currently in place, this will not be enough to cause flash
flooding or riverine flooding. If the higher-end rains come
quickly beneath a heavy thunderstorms, then short-lived nuisance
runoff issues would become possible.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   71  93  71  94 /  10  10   0  10
Panama City   72  90  73  89 /  10  10   0  10
Dothan        68  94  69  94 /  10  10   0  10
Albany        69  94  71  96 /  10  10   0  10
Valdosta      70  93  71  95 /  10  10   0  10
Cross City    70  93  71  93 /  20  20   0  20
Apalachicola  72  87  72  87 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner