Isolated thunderstorms developed across the Rolling Plains and extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle on the afternoon of the 14th. Warm surface temperatures and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer contributed to one storm becoming severe near Memphis (Hall County).
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The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Isolated thunderstorms developed across the Rolling Plains and extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle on the afternoon of the 14th. Warm surface temperatures and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer contributed to one storm becoming severe near Memphis (Hall County). This storm produced severe thunderstorm wind gusts up to 74 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 14, 11:38 AM CST, 3 hours 49 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1238 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1235 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, primarily off the Caprock this afternoon and evening. - Daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the week with the best chances focused overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. - Temperatures to remain near seasonal normals through the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 A few remnant scattered showers continue to linger across portions of the far southeastern Texas Panhandle late this morning, from previous overnight convection. Much of the short term forecast remains on track with the previous, with an additional round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible once again this afternoon. As the upper level trough begins to eject northeast and we begin to lose supportive jet dynamics across the region, we will begin to see PoPs decrease through the late evening/early overnight period. However, PoPs will remain non-zero for areas along the southeastern Rolling Plains as a subtle disturbance in the flow through the overnight period, combined with the increased moisture in place, may be enough for a few isolated to scattered storms overnight. Due to the increased moisture in place, with dewpoints progged in the low to mid 60s, and relatively light winds, we could see areas of patchy fog development by the early morning hours, as depicted by forecast soundings. As for overnight lows, expect temperatures to remain similar to previous nights in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Headed into the beginning of the work week, the H5 synoptic pattern displays a pair of weak closed lows, wobbling across the Intermountain West, while an amplified upper ridge stretched from the Rockies into the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile off the east, a larger scale trough is parked across the Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures will remain similar to what we saw this weekend, thanks to near stationary thickness and height values across the region, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Although conditions are expected to remain dry for most, the moist upslope component to the wind along with subtle disturbances tracking through the NW flow aloft may provide enough moisture and lift for a few isolated to scattered storms to develop, primarily off the Caprock. The overall severe threat remains low given the lack of large scale forcing and instability in place, although a locally strong wind gust cannot be ruled out. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Main theme of the extended is the chance for daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with the best shot looking to be during the overnight Wednesday into Thursday time period. The upper level pattern remains tricky and congested through much of the extended period, as the pair of upper level lows across the Intermountain West continue to wobble into the Canadian provinces before shifting through the High Plains, where we will begin to see the breakdown of the already weak upper level ridge as it shifts east. Through the period, flow aloft over the FA looks to remain northwesterly at best, which will allow for those isolated to scattered storm chances to remain in tact Tuesday with similar temperatures to Monday expected. As the upper level trough begins to dig into the High Plains Wednesday, that is when it looks to bring some potentially wetter conditions to the FA as an H5 jet tracks into portions of the northern Texas Panhandle and an associated front attempts to make its way through the FA. Unfortunately, models are all over the place with the evolution of this system which leads to a pretty low confidence forecast. Although, ensembles are in agreement that this system could bring another round of beneficial rainfall and slightly cooler temperatures through mid-week. Therefore will opt to maintain NBM slight chance to chance PoPs at this time until we see some better agreement in the models. As this system shifts east through the end of the work week, we will see the return of the upper level ridge out west, which will likely lead to the return of warmer conditions through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 A broken deck of low clouds will remain in place through at least the next several hours with conditions likely to fluctuate between MVFR and VFR through most of the rest of the afternoon at both LBB and PVW. Conditions are then expected to improve to VFR across the entire region by about sunset this evening. Some isolated TS may develop mainly to the east of LBB/PVW and near CDS this afternoon, but confidence in direct convective impacts to any terminal is too low to add thunder mention at this time. Late tonight through early Monday morning, visibility restrictions from BR/FG will be possible along with a possibility of IFR CIGs especially at LBB and PVW, but confidence in timing and coverage of these conditions is still quite low. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...30
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1243 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 TXZ021>044-151745- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 1243 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible off the Caprock this afternoon and evening. Although the severe weather threat remains low, a few strong wind gusts to 60 mph, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Tonight, there is a chance for patchy fog development for areas across the Caprock through daybreak Monday. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible through much of the week with the highest chances expected overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning.
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 122 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:26 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Memphis measured severe wind gusts at 1527 and 1528 CST. A peak wind gust of 74 mph was measured at 1527 CST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1283133.