Typical summertime pulse thunderstorms developed during the afternoon and evening hours of September 14-17. While most storms remained below severe limits, a few storms did produce localized damaging downburst winds and large hail.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
Typical summertime pulse thunderstorms developed during the afternoon and evening hours of September 14-17. While most storms remained below severe limits, a few storms did produce localized damaging downburst winds and large hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 14, 1:32 PM CST, 2 hours 28 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 232 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot weather to continue into the start of the week coupled with isolated to scattered afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances (15-40%). Isolated instances of downburst wind gusts up to 40-50 mph could occur with any isolated stronger storm, especially Monday afternoon. - A mid-week pattern change will initiate a cooling trend with better rain chances (30-60%) Wednesday into Thursday. Lingering low rain chances continue into the weekend. - Despite the daily chances of rain...overall rainfall will be modest this week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Our first beautiful comma-head midlatitude cyclone of the season can be seen churning away across the west-central Plains on mid-level water vapor imagery, as a compact shortwave ejects off of the Rocky Mountains. Despite this development over the past 24 hours, the big picture synoptic pattern has largely remained the same with longwave, moisture-laden troughing over the west CONUS, rather steep and meridional, but drier troughing over the east CONUS, leaving a very long and steep ridge axis stretching from east TX up to Lake Superior and northward. The surface pattern also has remained static with the slightly deepened low pressure system over SD, a southward extending cold front, and an east-southeastward extending warm/stationary front across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Hot weather to continue into the start of the week: Thanks to the static pattern highs today are on track to meet yesterday's standards with temperatures in the lower to middle 90s. The same goes for Monday, though increased high cloud cover may keep highs a tad cooler. Lows will also be mild in the middle to upper 60s. 15-30% chance of showers and storms in the eastern Ozarks today: As of 2 PM CDT, an increasingly agitated cumulus field is present across the eastern Ozarks. Some light shower echoes have also been noted on radar imagery. The cumulus field is developing in an area of increased moisture along the aforementioned warm/stationary front. Areas westward across the Ozark Plateau have quickly mixed out to the upper 50s today. In fact, surface analysis seems to point to a local "Ozarks dryline" today, with the higher terrain of the Plateau quickly drying out, spreading eastward to the lower terrain of the eastern Ozarks. Surface observations even show light westerly winds interacting with light easterly winds where the moisture gradient is setup in a line from Eldon down to West Plains. The weak convergence along this line should be the focus for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon (15-30% chances) within the more moist and unstable air mass in the eastern Ozarks. While instability is higher in this area, RAP forecast soundings still show skinny CAPE profiles much like yesterday. Therefore, behavior of storms are expected to be largely the same with small pulse-like showers and a few thunderstorms. Yesterday, we saw a few 30-40 mph wind gusts as the cores of these storms collapsed, and with thermodynamic profiles largely matching yesterday, this can be expected today. The large majority of cells will be showers, though a few thunderstorms could develop with one or two becoming strong enough for 30-40 mph downburst wind gusts. Some short-term guidance like the RAP/HRRR/RRFS suggest that outflow chain forcing of storms along with a weak 700 mb front pushing west into the area may keep shower and thunderstorm chances around after sunset and into the early overnight hours. There's a bit of uncertainty in this scenario, but have kept 15-20% probability for precipitation through midnight in the eastern Ozarks. 15-40% chance of showers and storms across the region Monday: As the trough slowly approaches from the west, and the warm/stationary surface front slowly retrogrades westward into our area Monday, moisture--and as a result, instability--will slightly increase compared to today. Additionally, drier/cooler air from the approaching trough will steepen mid-level lapse rates above already steep low-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km from strong daytime heating/mixing. Due to the better thermodynamics and lift in place, chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms increase across the region Monday afternoon to 15-40%. Additionally, these parameters introduce a strong downburst potential as the Ozarks Pulse Severe Thunderstorm Index increases across the region. Therefore, some isolated thunderstorms may produce downburst wind gusts up to 40-50 mph Monday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Hot weather to continue Tuesday and some of the area Wednesday: Global models continue to prog the current pattern to be mostly static through Tuesday as the two troughs churn away in their respective locations. This leaves upper-level deformation and mid-level high pressure to remain over our area for this period. As previously mentioned, the static nature of the pattern is leading to very high confidence in temperatures with NBM spreads at less than 2-5 degrees. Therefore, highs are expected to continue to be in the lower to mid-90s through Tuesday, with lows in the middle to upper 60s. Highs in the lower to middle 90s are still expected Wednesday east of Highway 65 as the cold front approaches from the west. Lows Wednesday night will still be mild in the lower to middle 60s. 15-40% chances of showers and storms across the region Tuesday: Once again, since the pattern will be static, lingering moisture and instability along and southwest of the NW-SE oriented warm/stationary front along the Mississippi River Valley brings continued 15-40% chances for afternoon pop-up showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. The best chances are along and on either side of the Highway 65 corridor where better instability and surface convergence is forecast to be. Best rain chances with next system Wednesday and Thursday: The western trough is then forecast to finally make its way across the central Plains during the middle of next week. Cluster analysis still shows some uncertainty in shape, intensity, and timing, but the grand ensemble has trended to a bit slower progression. The greater forcing during this time period then brings better chances for more widespread rain and thunderstorms both Wednesday and Thursday (30-60% chance). There has been a very slight uptick in forecasted amounts from the NBM mean as global models begin to converge, however, QPF clusters are still not overly excited about any sort of "washouts", with the vast majority of models keeping amounts well below an inch through next week. Cooling trend into next weekend following the mid-week system: As lower heights enter the region following the system, NBM mean temperatures continue to show a decreasing trend to near normal. Though there is still quite a bit of spread as we get past the next system (for example, we could see highs as low as the upper 70s or as high as the upper 80s), the overall trend is a decrease into next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Medium-high confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the entire TAF period at all sites. The medium-low portion of the confidence comes from a very low chance for an isolated shower to develop at any of the sites between 19-02Z. The best chances are east of the sites, leaving a 10-20% chance of one occurring at SGF, BBG, and/or JLN, which is too low to include in the TAF. AMDs will be made if confidence increases. Otherwise, winds will be south-southwesterly today at 8-12 kts, becoming light and variable after 02-04Z. A shield of high cirrus clouds will dominate much of the period, with a sparse cu field also expected at 6-8 kft between 19-02Z. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Values listed below are for sites where the forecast is within 3 degrees of a record. Record High Temperatures: September 14: KVIH: 99/1971 September 15: KSGF: 98/1893 KUNO: 98/1954 September 16: KSGF: 95/2019 KVIH: 96/1954 Record High Minimum Temperatures: September 15: KSGF: 74/1936 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Price CLIMATE...Nelson
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Springfield MO 236 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-151945- Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon- St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 236 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Marginal thunderstorm wind damage risk. Limited lightning risk. Limited excessive heat risk. DISCUSSION... Another unseasonably hot day is occurring today. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are also ongoing east of Highway 65 into the eastern Ozarks, and will continue through the evening. Lightning will be the main hazard, though isolated instances of downburst wind gusts up to 40-50 mph are possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly during the afternoon this week. Severe weather is not expected and rainfall amounts will be modest, though isolated instances of downburst wind gusts up to 40-50 mph are possible, especially Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket This product in graphical format...along with other weather... hydrological and climate information...at http://www.weather.gov/sgf Price
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 128 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:01 UTC.
9 hail, 8 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds snapped a tree in a residence yard during a storm.
Thunderstorm wind gusts downed a powerline down west of State Highway 97 and State Route A.
Large hail to the size of quarters fell northeast of Republic.
Hail to the size of quarters fell east of Republic.
Hail to the size of half dollars fell east of Republic.
Thunderstorm wind gusts downed a few large trees near Table Rock.
Hail to the size of half dollars fell just south of Joplin.
Hail to the size of quarters fell east of Marionville.
A social media picture showed hail to the size of quarters in Willard.
Thunderstorm wind gusts snapped power poles and cause some structural damage near Bois d'Arc.
Several large tree limbs were brought down near Willard.
Several large tree limbs were brought down near Ash Grove.
Hail to the size of quarters fell to the east of Ash Grove.
Hail to the size of quarters fell south of Cole Camp.
Thunderstorm winds downed large tree limbs and took shingles off a building.
Hail up to the size of quarters was reported near Aldrich.
Several trees were reported down and a barn suffered minor roof damage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, September 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1287677, 1287678, 1287679, 1287680, 1287681, 1287682, 1287683, 1287684, 1287685, 1287686, 1287687, 1287688, 1287692, 1287695, 1287697, 1287698, 1287699.