Texas, 2025

Drought in Texas, November 11 to 30, 2025

November 11 to 30, 2025 · NWS EWX · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

Nearly all of South-Central Texas received less than normal precipitation during November. Most of the area saw less than 25% of normal.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.

Nearly all of South-Central Texas received less than normal precipitation during November. Most of the area saw less than 25% of normal. This worsened the drought in some locations and maintained it most other places. However, Fayette and Gonzales Counties received enough rain to improve one category from Extreme (D3) Drought to Severe (D2) Drought. The largest negative change was Maverick County which went from Abnormally Dry (D0) to D2. Comal County went from D2 to D3. De Witt and Zavala went from Moderate (D1) Drought to D2. Bexar and Medina remained in D3; Atascosa, Bastrop, Caldwell, Dimmit, Frio, Guadalupe, Hays, Karnes, Lavaca, Travis, and Wilson all stayed in D2. At the end of the month, the seven-day average streamflow was much below (<10%) normal on the Lavaca, San Marcos, lower Guadalupe, and Atascosa Rivers and below normal (10%-24%) on the lower Colorado, San Antonio, lower Nueces, and Frio Rivers. The Edwards Aquifer actually rose 1.6 feet but was still 38.0 feet below normal. Medina Lake dropped 1.5 feet and was 84.2 feet below conservation elevation. Lake Travis dropped 1.0 foot and was 13.0 feet below normal. Canyon Lake dropped 1.1 feet and was 20.1 feet below normal. Most water providers encouraged conservation while San Antonio and Universal City imposed stage 3 restrictions and New Braunfels and Austin had stage 2. Of the counties in D2 or worse drought, Atascosa, Bastrop, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, De Witt, Dimmit, Fayette, Frio, Gonzales, Guadalupe, Hays, Karnes, Lavaca, Medina, and Zavala had outdoor burn bans in effect at the end of the month.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 11, 5:21 AM CST, 39 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

  • Light freezes could be possible Tuesday morning within low-lying valleys and rural areas near the escarpment, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Prairies
  • Critical fire weather conditions over all of South Central Texas Tuesday
  • Warming trend ahead of a weekend storm system that brings low to medium (20-40%) rain and storm chances
Area forecast discussion, Nov 11, 5:21 AM CST, 39 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
521 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light freezes could be possible Tuesday morning within low-lying
  valleys and rural areas near the escarpment, I-35 corridor, and
  Coastal Prairies

- Critical fire weather conditions over all of South Central
  Texas Tuesday

- Warming trend ahead of a weekend storm system that brings low to
  medium (20-40%) rain and storm chances

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1204 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

This morning will start off quite chilly across the area with many
locations waking up in the mid to upper 30s. We elected not to issue
a freeze warning as southerly winds look to start increasing towards
sunrise thus limiting just how cold temperatures could get. However,
some locations may approach freezing but felt The freeze potential
is too limited to where majority of the area in each county will not
reach freezing criteria. Speaking of winds, the return of upper
level ridging building to our west and low level southerly flow
should help promote and increase our fire danger as moisture will be
slow to increase. As such, we have elected to issue a Red flag
warning due to the critical fire weather conditions developing
throughout the day (see Fire Weather below). Highs Tuesday with the
increased southerly winds should rebound nicely into the 70s. As
moisture continues to increase over the area as southerly flow
continues, expect lows to be much warmer with many staying in the
50s and upper 40s. As high pressure and upper level ridging
continues over the area, Highs Wednesday will also be warmer with
upper 70s over the Southern Edwards Plateau to low 80s over the
Coastal Plains and I-35 Corridor being common.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1204 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

The warming trend continues through the work week with many areas
seeing above normal temperatures in the 80s once again before
another polar trough brings the next weather change. Several long
term global models and ensemble members are hinting at this
possibility of a deep upper level trough trying to swing through our
area. It remains to be seen just how far south this trough digs and
what impacts we may see locally here. Of note, the most recent model
runs have really slowed down this upcoming system with only light
rain chances possible late Saturday night before a bit of a lull as
the upper level storm system and it's associated cold front advances
across the region. Models have recently trended slower with this
system staying over the desert southwest for a few days before
pushing across our area. For now kept low end pops (20-40%) to
account for this uncertainty as its still a ways out. Will wait for
more consistency in the models before increasing rain/storm chances.
However, its certainly possible rain chances could linger into
Monday if trends continue to hold. Things can and likely will change
but confidence continues increasing that we will remain in an active
zonal pattern for the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions today under clear skies. Patchy, broken low
stratus and fog may develop early Wednesday morning near and south
of San Antonio. Variable winds less than 5KT early this morning
across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains, E to
SE 5-10KT closer to the Rio Grande. A S to SW wind (SE near the
Rio Grande) around 15 KT is forecast to develop 15Z-18Z, gusting
to around 25KT through the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1204 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Southerly flow resumes early this morning and continues increasing
throughout the day, however the moisture return will be slower
keeping minimum humidities in the upper teens to 20s. The surface
high slides east, with the returning and increasing southerly flow.
Speeds during this afternoon will reach 10 to 20 mph with gusts up
to 30 mph. These wind speeds, combined with the low humidity and
cry to critically dry fuel moisture, will result in critical fire
weather conditions across all of South-Central Texas. As a result
a Red Flag Warning has been issued from 9 AM through 6 PM today.

Higher moisture levels will be returning Wednesday through Friday
with the moderate to breezy southerly flow. An upper level storm
system arriving towards the weekend could bring some chances for
wetting rain but also the arrival of another front that could
result in fire weather concerns early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  55  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  52  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  51  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            70  51  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  48  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  52  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             73  47  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  51  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  53  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  52  81  59 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           74  52  83  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
for TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228.

&&

SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...76

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Maverick

When
November 11, 6:00 AM CST to November 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Maverick forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
28.743, -100.314 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Nearly all of South-Central Texas received less than normal precipitation during November. Most of the area saw less than 25% of normal. This worsened the drought in some locations and maintained it most other places. However, Fayette and Gonzales Counties received enough rain to improve one category from Extreme (D3) Drought to Severe (D2) Drought. The largest negative change was Maverick County which went from Abnormally Dry (D0) to D2. Comal County went from D2 to D3. De Witt and Zavala went from Moderate (D1) Drought to D2. Bexar and Medina remained in D3; Atascosa, Bastrop, Caldwell, Dimmit, Frio, Guadalupe, Hays, Karnes, Lavaca, Travis, and Wilson all stayed in D2. At the end of the month, the seven-day average streamflow was much below (<10%) normal on the Lavaca, San Marcos, lower Guadalupe, and Atascosa Rivers and below normal (10%-24%) on the lower Colorado, San Antonio, lower Nueces, and Frio Rivers. The Edwards Aquifer actually rose 1.6 feet but was still 38.0 feet below normal. Medina Lake dropped 1.5 feet and was 84.2 feet below conservation elevation. Lake Travis dropped 1.0 foot and was 13.0 feet below normal. Canyon Lake dropped 1.1 feet and was 20.1 feet below normal. Most water providers encouraged conservation while San Antonio and Universal City imposed stage 3 restrictions and New Braunfels and Austin had stage 2. Of the counties in D2 or worse drought, Atascosa, Bastrop, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, De Witt, Dimmit, Fayette, Frio, Gonzales, Guadalupe, Hays, Karnes, Lavaca, Medina, and Zavala had outdoor burn bans in effect at the end of the month.

Drought, Zavala

When
November 11, 6:00 AM CST to November 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Zavala forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
28.866, -99.761 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Nearly all of South-Central Texas received less than normal precipitation during November. Most of the area saw less than 25% of normal. This worsened the drought in some locations and maintained it most other places. However, Fayette and Gonzales Counties received enough rain to improve one category from Extreme (D3) Drought to Severe (D2) Drought. The largest negative change was Maverick County which went from Abnormally Dry (D0) to D2. Comal County went from D2 to D3. De Witt and Zavala went from Moderate (D1) Drought to D2. Bexar and Medina remained in D3; Atascosa, Bastrop, Caldwell, Dimmit, Frio, Guadalupe, Hays, Karnes, Lavaca, Travis, and Wilson all stayed in D2. At the end of the month, the seven-day average streamflow was much below (<10%) normal on the Lavaca, San Marcos, lower Guadalupe, and Atascosa Rivers and below normal (10%-24%) on the lower Colorado, San Antonio, lower Nueces, and Frio Rivers. The Edwards Aquifer actually rose 1.6 feet but was still 38.0 feet below normal. Medina Lake dropped 1.5 feet and was 84.2 feet below conservation elevation. Lake Travis dropped 1.0 foot and was 13.0 feet below normal. Canyon Lake dropped 1.1 feet and was 20.1 feet below normal. Most water providers encouraged conservation while San Antonio and Universal City imposed stage 3 restrictions and New Braunfels and Austin had stage 2. Of the counties in D2 or worse drought, Atascosa, Bastrop, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, De Witt, Dimmit, Fayette, Frio, Gonzales, Guadalupe, Hays, Karnes, Lavaca, Medina, and Zavala had outdoor burn bans in effect at the end of the month.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, November 2025

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1300626, 1300627.