On the afternoon of the 29th, a cold front was slowly sagging southward across the South Plains of West Texas. Very cool temperatures were observed north of the front, however, south of the front, a very moist and warm atmosphere existed.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
On the afternoon of the 29th, a cold front was slowly sagging southward across the South Plains of West Texas. Very cool temperatures were observed north of the front, however, south of the front, a very moist and warm atmosphere existed. As thunderstorms initially developed over Hockley County, several landspout tornadoes were observed in vicinity of the southward moving cold front. Despite minimal large scale ascent, thunderstorms were able to rapidly intensity underneath a very unstable atmosphere. Hail became as large as 3.50 inches in diameter with these thunderstorms over Terry County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 29, 1:01 PM CST, 1 hour 14 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 201 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms expected to develop tonight along a frontal boundary mostly across the southern South Plains and track over the southern Rolling Plains. - Daily chances for thunderstorms, some severe, are forecast this weekend through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025 The main focus for this afternoon and evening are the thunderstorm chances along the frontal boundary. The long awaited cold front has finally pushed into the CWA. At the moment, the boundary is beginning to push into Lubbock. Winds ahead of the front remain southeasterly and breezy north to northeasterly winds follow the front. The front should get another boost towards southern portions of the CWA as a surface trough tracks through the Midwest. Location of initial thunderstorm development will be dependent on where the front stalls later this afternoon. Any lift associated with thunderstorm development will be from strong low level convergence along the frontal boundary. Subsidence is expected for the mid to upper levels as a shortwave ridge builds overhead between a trough over the Midwest and a low off the coast of Baja California. Models indicate the frontal boundary will stall over southern portions of the FA later this afternoon therefore, greatest chances for thunderstorms will be over the southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains. Severe thunderstorms are possible with any storms that do develop. Thermodynamic parameters ahead of the front are sufficient for severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two are possible. Ahead of the front, models indicate a decent layer of instability with CAPE values up to 2800 J/kg and daytime heating eroding any capping by the afternoon. Deep layer shear will also increase through the afternoon. Convergence along the front in combination with the unstable environment ahead of the front will be capable of producing supercells. Supercells that form closest to the frontal boundary have the highest probability of producing a tornado with model guidance showing decent helicity values close to the front with effective STP values around 6 later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form over southwest Southern Plains along the boundary and move southeast and are capable of hail up to softball size, damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph, and tornadoes. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025 Models are still delaying the breakdown of the blocking pattern until late weekend. The axis of the upper ridge moves overhead by late Sunday as it is kicked eastward by an amplifying upper low over British Columbia/Alberta. The upper ridge will help to warm highs into the 90s on Sunday and Monday. The upper low off the coast of Baja will phase with the main flow Monday as a second upper low develops off the southern coast of California. The shortwave trough resulting from the phased upper low will push a dryline through the region late Monday. Models are diverging with the convective chances along the dryline. The GFS dryslot the FA while the ECMWF is more generous with precip chances. Models are in better agreement with increased rain chances mid week as an upper trough pushes eastward across the Northern Plains and pushes a cold front southward through the region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025 Low ceilings have hit all three TAF sites. Currently, IFR ceilings at KPVW and MVFR ceilings at KCDS. KLBB currently has VFR ceilings but could bounce between VFR and MVFR the rest of today. A cold front is currently stalled between KPVW and KLBB. Once the front finally pushed past KLBB, expect north to northeasterly winds at all three TAF sites for this TAF period. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon close to KLBB. There is a chance for some thunderstorm development near KPVW but probability is too low for TAF mention. Low clouds are expected to return early tomorrow morning with chances of patchy fog at KPVW and KLBB. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...10
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1139 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025 TXZ021>044-301645- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 1139 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop over the southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains this afternoon. These supercell thunderstorms will be capable of producing hail up to softball size, damaging wind gusts to 80 mph, and a tornado or two are possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Daily chances for thunderstorms, some severe, are forecast this weekend through next week. The highest potential for severe storms are forecast this Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 49 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:15 UTC.
3 strong wind, 3 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
LANDSPOUT. Location: 33.559N/102.381W. A video on social media showed a brief landspout tornado over an open field.
A hail research team reported ping pong ball size hail northwest of Ropesville. Additionally, a trained weather spotter reported quarter size hail to the west of Ropesville.
Numerous reports from storm chasers indicated a swath of hail from approximately six miles north of Brownfield to nine miles west-northwest of Brownfield. Hail ranged in size from tennis ball size to 3.50 inches in diameter. No damage was reported at the time.
LANDSPOUT. Location: 33.133N/102.338W points. Photographs on social media showed a brief landspout tornado southwest of Brownfield.
Local broadcast media relayed a report of hail in Brownfield ranging in size from half dollar to ping pong ball size. Additional reports of golf ball size hail were received along Texas State Highway 137 between Brownfield and Union.
LANDSPOUT. Location: 33.499N/102.152W points. Several photographs were posted on social media of a landspout tornado that lasted several minutes approximately six miles north of Ropesville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1254561, 1254581, 1254601, 1254605, 1254603, 1254565.