A mid-level shortwave trough developed an MCS that lifted east- northeastward through the day and across SE GA during peak heating. 75-2 inch range.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A mid-level shortwave trough developed an MCS that lifted east- northeastward through the day and across SE GA during peak heating. Continued SW flow increased moisture levels to above average with PWATs mainly in the 1.75-2 inch range. The combination of a moist, moderately unstable airmass and additional lift from the passing shortwave enhanced convection across SE GA and along the sea breeze merger along the Atlantic |coast. SPC had a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for SE GA. Strong to locally severe storm occurred during the afternoon into the evening with a confirmed tornado in St. Johns County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 29, 2:12 PM UTC, 3 hours 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1012 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1012 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Showers and storms continue to push through the FL panhandle into Georgia to our west. If these storms hold together, they may arrive towards our northern SE GA counties and the Suwannee Valley Region by the lunch hour today, with the potential for some strong to severe storms to develop as they pass through. By this afternoon, the continued southwesterly flow will keep the Atlantic sea breeze pinned along the coast, where strong to severe storms will likely see the highest chances for development. Main hazards being gusty winds, flooding rainfall, frequent lightning and small hail. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A mid-level shortwave trough has developed an MCS that is currently over the FL panhandle. This system is expected to lift east- northeastward through the day and likely pass through SE GA during peak heating. Continued SW flow has increased our moisture levels to be above average with PWATs mainly in the 1.75-2 in. range. The combination of a moist, moderately unstable airmass and additional lift from the passing shortwave will enhance convection across SE GA and along the sea breeze merger along the Atlantic coast. SPC has increased the threat of severe weather to a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) for SE GA for today. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into evening with the main hazards being gusty winds, flooding rainfall, frequent lightning and small hail. Convection shifts offshore later this evening. A few pre- frontal showers will move into I-75 corridor early Friday morning. With convection developing later in the day and the Atlantic sea breeze being pinned to the coast, highs will range from the upper 80s in SE GA to the mid 90s south of Gainesville. Without the relief of the sea breeze, heat indices will rise to the low 100s for coastal NE FL this afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025 A late-season amplified upper trough will pivot across the eastern US and drag a cool frontal boundary through the region Friday evening. Ahead of this front, strengthening southwesterly flow will mix down and lead to a breezy day outside of thunderstorm influences, with gusts up to 25 mph. This steering flow will keep the Atlantic sea breeze well offshore through the day as the prefrontal trough pushes in from the north during the late afternoon and evening. Convection will occur in waves on Friday. The first wave will be scattered storms developing in the moist and unstable southwest flow and on the Gulf breeze. This will be followed by a second wave of convection that could be quasi-linear in nature as it pushes through SE GA during the late afternoon and early evening and then across NE FL through the rest of the evening. Embedded strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. The main concerns will be strong wind gusts (40-60 mph) but there will be potential for hail, particularly with Round 2. Some training of convection or multiple rounds of rainfall will elevate a localized flood potential through the day and evening Friday. Though temperatures are expected to reach into the 90s again, early showers and storms may keep some spots from reaching the full heating potential. No relief in the hot and humid conditions Friday with heat index values into the 100s again. Thunderstorms should exit to the south shortly during the early morning hours Saturday as noticeably drier and cooler air filters in through the day Saturday. As moisture is scoured out, wall-to- wall sunshine and an overall seasonable day is to be expected Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025 A anomalously dry, deep northwesterly flow aloft will scour out any remaining deep moisture to end the weekend as weak high pressure positions to the north. This will lead to seasonable warmth and below normal rain chances on the first day of meteorological summer. Though guidance does diverge through the beginning of next, onshore flow should develop locally and a gradual moisture return; however, if a inverted coastal trough does indeed develop beneath an abnormal cutoff upper low, those onshore winds could be fairly breezy. Given the slow moisture return, below normal shower and thunderstorm chances will persist through the middle part of next week. The dry airmass and deep mixing will allow wider diurnal temperature ranges and above climo daytime highs, especially inland. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 658 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025 Sporadic low stratus and light fog this morning will lift quickly this morning, by 13z with cumulus VFR ceilings developing by the late morning rising. Showers and thunderstorms develop within the southwesterly flow this afternoon 17-19z with interaction with the pinned Atlantic sea breeze during the late afternoon and early evening 20z-24z. That said, TEMPO groups exist for all terminals adjacent to the I-95 corridor. Occasional impacts to visibility is expected, possible down to LIFR levels, along with MVFR ceiling drops. Activity will fade this evening with VFR ceilings continuing. Little chance for fog tonight but patches of low stratus may develop but confidence is too low to include with this forecast package. Coastal terminals will feel a sea breeze this afternoon but it is not likely to push beyond KJAX before convective interruption. && .MARINE... Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop along the pinned sea breeze this afternoon and shift eastward over the nearshore waters and weaken as they progress offshore. By Friday, west flow will strengthen to Exercise Caution levels offshore ahead of an approaching cool front. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front as it pushes across the waters Friday night. A drier airmass and a weak pressure pattern should allow a sea breeze dominant weather pattern to return and fair weather by Sunday. Rip Currents: With easterly swells with periods of 8-9 seconds, a moderate risk of rip currents is anticipated today. A downward trend appears for Friday with swells slightly lower and an offshore wind flow pattern. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025 Southwesterly flow pattern continues through Friday ahead of an approaching cool front that will pass across the region Friday night. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today along the I-95 corridor and again areawide Friday ahead of the front. Significant lightning activity, along with gusty outflow and hail will be possible Friday evening with thunderstorms along the front Friday. Strong prefrontal, southwesterly winds will develop Friday with gusts up to 25 mph. Winds turn northwesterly behind the front on Saturday as drier and slightly cooler air filters in. Areas of high dispersion today will become widespread Friday and Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025 Above average moisture levels (PWATs 1.75-2 in.), upper support and sea breeze mergers will result in localized flooding rainfall this afternoon into evening mainly along the coast and Altamaha river basin. More rounds of rainfall roll through on Friday ahead of a cool front but QPF amounts have decreased due to some drier air mixing in. WPC shows a marginal risk of excessive rain for parts of the area today and Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 88 68 87 63 / 70 40 60 30 SSI 88 72 89 69 / 70 70 60 60 JAX 93 71 91 67 / 60 60 60 60 SGJ 93 72 91 70 / 60 60 60 70 GNV 94 71 91 69 / 30 30 60 60 OCF 94 72 90 70 / 30 30 60 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1049 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0615 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 4 West of Ponte Vedra B 30.23N 81.45W
05/28/2025 Duval FL Public
Delayed report - public reported large tree
limbs down and dime-size hail. Time of event
based on radar data.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1053 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0745 PM Rain 4 west of Ponte Vedra B 30.24N 81.44W
05/28/2025 M3.50 Inch Duval FL Public
Delayed report - Heavy rainfall measured at
about 3.50 inches from 5:45 pm to 7:45 pm.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
120 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0505 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 W Saint Marys 30.75N 81.59W
05/28/2025 Camden GA Public
Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 2
W Saint Marys. Delayed report- A few trees
limbs reported down and dime size hail near
Kingsland St Marys Road and Shadowlawn
Drive. Time of event based on radar data.
0510 PM Lightning 2 W Saint Marys 30.75N 81.59W
05/28/2025 Camden GA Public
Lightning caused damage to electrical
equipment at a business along Shadowlawn
Drive.
&&The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 97 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:44 UTC.
10 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail, 1 wildfire, 1 funnel cloud, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
First Coast News reports that the Perchman | Wildfire, located along State Road 19 and | Forest Road 74 in southern Putnam County to | the northwest of Lake George that was | initially started by a lightning strike, | grew to 800 acres on Thursday afternoon.
Marion County Emergency Management reported one fatality resulting from a snapped tree at Matheny Fire & Emergency on SW 46th Ave. in Ocala. A lawncare working was working outside when the tree fell onto him. The event time was based on radar.
A trained spotter reported penny size hail and estimated wind gusts in excess of 50 mph along State Road 200 to the south of Ocala International Airport.
A trained spotter reported powerlines down to the south of Lake Asbury. Time of event | based on radar data.
The public reported a funnel cloud near U.S. Highway 17 just south of Green Cove Springs.
Emergency manager reported downed trees along | Walnut Street and a downed tree on powerlines along Leonard C Taylor Pkwy in Green Cove Springs. The time of | event based on radar data.
Trained spotter reports numerous trees down in the vicinity of Asbury Lake.
A tree fell on a house causing significant roof damage along Bartram Plantation and Greenbriar Rd. Time of event based on radar data.
Emergency Manager relayed a report of a tree | down across State Road 13 just east of the | Shands Bridge along the St. Johns River. | Time of event based on radar data.
Around 4:53 PM EDT, an EF0 tornado touched down at the Cimarrone |Golf Club in St. Johns County, FL along Seneca Dr and Sequoyah |Cir. As the tornado trekked northeastward across portions of the |golf course, it snapped large branches off softwood and hardwood |trees. The tornado overturned a storage shed and scattered its |contents before continuing across a wooded area and causing a few |trees to become slanted. The tornado emerged from the wooded area |along the St. Johns PKWY and SR-9B interchange, finally |dissipating over a retention pond along SR-9B.
St. Johns County Emergency Management | reports a tree downed along County Road 16-A | near the Shearwater neighborhood. Time of | event based on radar data.
Action News Jax relayed | photos of structural damage to the Loop | Restaurant in Nocatee. Also a separate | public report of a large maple tree downed | in a nearby neighborhood off Nocatee | Parkway. Time of damage based on radar data.
Public report of a large limb that fell down | on a house producing a large hole in the | roof. This was located along Russell Sampson | Road.
Action News Jax relayed a report of pea to | penny sized hail in the vicinity of Nocatee.
Weatherflow station near Fort Caroline | reported a peak wind gust of 65 mph as | thunderstorms moved across the area.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind, Marion | 2025-05-29 | 37 | Male | Outside/Open Areas | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Florida, 2025Warnings in Florida, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1260217, 1258921, 1258920, 1258925, 1258919, 1258924, 1258923, 1267434, 1260206, 1260222, 1260212, 1260194, 1260200, 1260208, 1260204.