Drought in Texas, May 1 to 12, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1240 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

The short term period will feature generally rain-free conditions,
near to slightly above normal temperatures, and breezy southeasterly
winds. An upper level system translating across the Plains tonight
will maintain gusty southeasterly winds for several hours tonight,
mainly along the Gulf waters and immediate coast. The pressure
gradient will slacken late tonight into tomorrow, which should
result in lower winds speeds and gusts for Thursday. Another warm
day is expected on Thursday with highs ranging from the lower 80s
along the Lower Texas beaches to mid to upper 90s across the Rio
Grande Plains. Guidance indicates a shortwave will translate from
west to east tomorrow into tomorrow night, which may result in the
development of showers and thunderstorms along the Sierra Madre.
This activity may approach the Rio Grande Plains and portions of the
upper RGV Thursday night.

For the Lower Texas beaches, a high risk of rip currents will
continue through at least Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Due to a series of upper-level shortwave disturbances coming off the
Sierra Madre, there will be an increased chance of precipitation for
the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas through the middle of
next week. The greatest chances will be on Saturday due to a stalled
frontal boundary over the area combined with a robustly moist
atmosphere favorable for showers and thunderstorms.

Rain chances will be low on Friday (less than 20%) but will rapidly
increase to 40-60% Friday night as the frontal boundary makes its
way into the area, creating surface convergence.  This frontal
boundary is expected to stall, resulting in a 70-80% chance of
widespread showers and thunderstorms developing in the region on
Saturday.

In addition to very high PWAT values indicating a richly
moist atmosphere conducive to convective development, current DESI
guidance suggests that there is a 50-60% chance that some areas
could see as much as 2 inches, and a 30-40% chance that some areas
could see as much as 4 inches.  The current worst case scenario that
DESI probability guidance is showing (less than a 10% chance) is
that a few areas could see rainfall as high as 7 inches. Because
this is still considered early guidance, predicted rainfall totals
could trend upward or downward as we move closer to Saturday.  It is
also too soon to pinpoint exactly which areas will receive the
highest precipitation amounts.  However, localized flash flooding
could be possible on Saturday in whichever areas receive the most
precipitation.

Once the front lifts out of the area on Sunday into Monday,
precipitation chances will rapidly decrease to around 20-30% from
Sunday through Wednesday due to the continued presence of upper
level shortwave disturbances over the area.

Winds are expected to be southeasterly through early next week,
briefly turning easterly on Saturday as the frontal boundary stalls
over the area. Wind speeds will increase towards the beginning of
next week as a tighter pressure gradient sets up ahead of an
approaching trough from the West. Skies should be partly cloudy to
mostly cloudy, with the highest cloud cover expected on Friday
night and Saturday as the frontal boundary stalls over the area.
Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy during this period.

Friday's temperatures are expected to be seasonal with high in the
upper 80s/lower 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s.  Saturday's
frontal boundary will take temperatures slightly below normal with
highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.
These below-seasonal temperatures will hang around a few days before
gradually warming to the mid-to-upper 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Low temperatures will warm strictly into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

MVFR to VFR will continue to be the rule at the aerodromes through
the next 24 hours. Generally moderate to breezy winds and mostly
cloudy skies with no chance of precipitation will occur.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Tonight through Thursday night...Small Craft Exercise Caution
conditions will prevail through tomorrow over the Laguna Madre and
Gulf waters in response to an enhanced pressure gradient. Expect
moderate winds and seas to prevail through Thursday night.

Friday through Wednesday...Favorable to slightly adverse conditions
are expected through the weekend into early next week, though
conditions could temporarily deteriorate in and around any
localized showers or thunderstorms. By next Monday night into
Tuesday, Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions may develop as a
pressure gradient sets up ahead of an approaching Pacific trough.
Winds will be light to moderate and southeasterly, excepting
Friday night into Saturday when the winds turn more easterly as
the frontal boundary stalls over Deep South Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             75  87  74  83 /  10   0  30  80
HARLINGEN               73  90  72  84 /  10   0  40  80
MCALLEN                 75  92  74  86 /  10  10  50  80
RIO GRANDE CITY         73  92  72  83 /  10  10  60  80
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      75  82  74  80 /  10   0  30  70
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     73  86  72  82 /  10   0  40  80

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&