High Wind in Texas, March 18, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
559 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 555 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

- Critical to extreme fire weather conditions from now through
  late tonight.

- Damaging wind gusts are possible this evening through Wednesday
  afternoon.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions each afternoon
  through Friday for at least portions of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Volatile fire/wind setup continues across our area not just for the
rest of this afternoon, but well into tonight. Current surface
observations show an extremely well-defined low-level thermal ridge
(LLTR) from the southern Texas Caprock north toward the far
northeastern Panhandles. On the windward side of the LLTR on the
LLano Estacado, extreme fire behavior has already been noted early
this afternoon. Across most of our area, we have seen modest return
flow with dewpoints in the mid-40s and low 50s. This is keeping RHs
in the 30s this afternoon east of the dryline, so despite the breezy
conditions (15-25 mph with some gusts up to 35 mph), fire weather is
only Elevated for much of the area.

This will change, and already is changing in northwest Oklahoma. The
dryline is mixing eastward during the day, and temperatures have
already soared into the mid-80s in spots just west of it where the
LLTR is impinging. This has caused RH to tumble, and by late
afternoon when the dryline is situated from roughly Alva to Quanah
we should start matching what WTM sites across the Panhandle are
showing (RHs in the 5-9 percent range with maximum wind gusts of 40-
50 mph). This will cause a rapid deterioration of fire conditions.

Normally, we look to the onset of night as a chance for RH to
recover and fire conditions to lessen. This won't happen tonight.
Instead, the approach of an upper-level trough will cause a Pacific
front to sweep off of the Rockies. It will collide with the dryline
around 03Z and will kick out to the east. The ensuing downsloped air
will remain every bit as dry (almost all 12Z guidance is showing
single-digit dewpoints streaming eastward into the area).
Furthermore, the LLTR will be ejected eastward ahead of the Pacific
front, putting our area on the windward side beginning about 05Z and
remaining until an Arctic front pushes through early tomorrow
morning. The concerns with this environment will be twofold:

-The potential for strong westerly winds with gusts in excess of 50
mph.
-The potential for extremely critical fire weather overnight, with
winds shifting broadside to the alignment of current fires.

Further complicating factors will be the Arctic front, which will
cause a second wind shift to northwesterly. Winds behind the front
won't slacken - if anything, the period late tonight into early
Wednesday morning will see the strongest wind gust potential, with
60+ mph wind gusts possible in northern Oklahoma.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Winds will be the main story during the day tomorrow as a powerful
cyclone ejects eastward through the Central Plains. Nearer to the
low, blizzard conditions are expected across parts of Nebraska and
potentially down into Kansas, but our area will be too far south to
receive air that cold or heavier precipitation. There is a low (20
percent) chance that the wraparound "commahead" rain grazes far
northern Oklahoma tomorrow morning, which could bring with it a 2-3
hour period of moderate rain. Otherwise, wouldn't be surprised to
see some sprinkles south of the commahead as is common with these
types of storm systems.

More impactful will be the continuation of a howling northwest wind.
High wind warning/wind advisory products are in effect until 7:00
pm, when our latest wind storm will begin to wind down. Until then,
40-55 mph wind gusts will be frequent.

High pressure will settle in across the High Plains tomorrow night,
with lighter northwest winds and clear skies expected across much of
our area. Temperatures will drop down to near-freezing along I-44
and get below freezing to the northwest of it. Mercifully, Thursday
looks to be much calmer across the area with highs in the low-to-mid
60s and lighter winds.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

A shortwave trough is expected to skirt the southern Plains
on Friday.  This will help push a weak cold front through Oklahoma
and northern Texas before stalling to our south. Overall, little
to no cooling is expected behind the frontal boundary, so more of
a wind shift. Southerly surface winds will return on Saturday
which will result in modest moisture return especially into parts
of southern and central Oklahoma. Saturday night, elevated
thunderstorms may develop along and north of a developing frontal
wave/warm front. Most of this convection is expected mainly to our
north and south. By Sunday afternoon, thunderstorms may develop
across south central and southeastern Oklahoma, as a cold front
moves into the Arklatex region. Instability and shear appear
sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. Dry condition are
expected behind the front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Very strong, gusty winds and LLWS are expected tonight. As a front
moves through the western sites, winds shift NW with gusts to 55
or higher, particularly near KCSM during the early morning hours
on Wednesday. This front moves through central Oklahoma around 12Z
and strong winds are expected to continue throughout the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  44  54  33 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         86  42  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  88  49  60  33 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           88  34  51  25 /   0  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     81  41  53  29 /   0   0  20   0
Durant OK         79  54  62  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ004>030-033>040-
     044>046-050.

     High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ004>018-
     021>024-033>036-038.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ019-020-025>032-
     037-039>048-050>052.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083>090.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083>090.

&&

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...01