Drought in Oklahoma, March 18 to 31, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
621 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

- Critical to extreme fire weather conditions this afternoon and
  evening.

- Damaging wind gusts are possible this evening through Wednesday
  morning.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions each afternoon
  through Friday for at least portions of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Early this morning, relative humidity values across far northwest
Oklahoma are still in the teens with a breezy southwest wind.
Needless to say, the humidity recovery across this part of the state
has been abysmal.

A surface low will deepen across western Kansas this afternoon, as a
shortwave trough approaches from the west. Although mid-level winds
will be rather strong by mid to late afternoon, a stronger core of
winds will likely remain over parts of the Texas Panhandle during
peak heating. Deeper mixing is expected across the western two-
tier of counties in western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north
Texas. Very warm to almost hot temperatures will lower humidity
values into the single digits and southwest winds will gust over
40-45 mph. Given the fuelscape, critical to extreme fire weather
conditions are likely. Farther east (generally along and east of
highway 81, better moisture return will result in higher humidity
values, but still in the 25 to 35 percent range. Despite lower
mixing heights east of a dryline, stronger low level winds should
result in occasional gusts to 40+ mph.

Late this evening and mainly during the overnight hours, a cold
front will move across the northwestern third/half of Oklahoma.
Strong, damaging winds may develop behind the front with gusts of 65
to perhaps 70 mph.  A High Wind Watch has been issued for parts of
west central/north central and northwestern Oklahoma where these
winds are most likely to develop.  Although the wind shift with the
cold front is not expected to be abrupt, any ongoing wildfires will
certainly be impacted by the increase in wind speed and direction.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Very strong winds are expected to continue behind the front on
Wednesday, so a Wind Advisory has been issued for areas along and
south of the High Wind Watch.  Humidity will improve behind the
front as much cooler temperatures are expected.  However, at least
near-critical fire weather conditions can be expected by Wednesday
afternoon as humidity drops into the 25 to 35 percent range.
Surface winds should quickly diminish Wednesday night and will remain
out of the northwest.

Decent humidity recovery is finally expected by Thursday morning.
Although a southerly wind will return by Thursday afternoon, it
certainly appears to be a day to regroup after several days of fire
weather and strong winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

A shortwave trough is expected to skirt the southern Plains
on Friday.  This will help push a weak cold front through Oklahoma
and northern Texas before stalling to our south. Overall, little
to no cooling is expected behind the frontal boundary, so more of
a wind shift. Southerly surface winds will return on Saturday
which will result in modest moisture return especially into parts
of southern and central Oklahoma. Saturday night, elevated
thunderstorms may develop along and north of a developing frontal
wave/warm front. Most of this convection is expected mainly to our
north and south. By Sunday afternoon, thunderstorms may develop
across south central and southeastern Oklahoma, as a cold front
moves into the Arklatex region. Instability and shear appear
sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. Dry condition are
expected behind the front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Gusty south winds are expected today across the area, with a shift
to westerly and then northwesterly behind a cold front after
midnight. Winds gusts near or over 50 knots are possible behind
the front across northwest and northern Oklahoma. Scattered to
broken cirrus will continue across the area through much of the
day before clearing tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  44  54  33 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         86  43  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  88  50  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           86  35  52  26 /   0  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     81  41  53  30 /   0   0  10   0
Durant OK         79  54  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ004>030-033>040-044>046-050.

     High Wind Watch from this evening through Wednesday afternoon
     for OKZ004>017-021-022.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     OKZ018>020-023>048-050>052.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ083>090.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...08