Dust Storm and High Wind in Texas, March 14, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
354 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 342 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

 - Dangerous high winds and extremely critical fire weather
   conditions are expected today, with wind gusts up to 80 mph.

 - Widespread blowing dust is expected this afternoon, with dust
   storm like conditions possible which may lead to extremely poor
   visibilities and hazardous travel.

 - A Red Flag Warning and High Wind Warning are both in effect
   for the entire forecast area through this evening.

 - Very warm, dry, and breezy to windy weather will return early
   next week with critical fire weather conditions expected again
   on Monday with extremely critical conditions possible on
   Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Water vapor imagery early this morning shows the upper level trough
centered over the Desert Southwest, where it is expected to
amplify through the early morning hours centering the associated
low over portions of northeastern New Mexico. This will position
the core of the 120+ knot mid-level jet right overhead of the CWA
by this afternoon. Additionally, the surface low over eastern
Colorado will deepen as it begins to traverse through the Southern
Plains with the cores of the 700mb 80+ knot jet streak and 850mb
60+ knot jet streak creeping into the FA by sunrise as the Pacific
front begins to move in tracking from west to east shifting winds
out of the west as they strengthen. NBM wind speeds continue to
look slightly underdone given MSLP changes around 5 to 6 mb every
3 hours in combination with the nearly 15 dam 700mb height
difference over 200nm, suggesting strong area-wide wind speeds
around 40 to 60 mph, with wind gusts up to 80 mph. Therefore, a
High Wind Warning is in effect from 6 AM CDT until 8 PM CDT. Wind
speeds will likely peak around noon when the core of the jets are
expected to be positioned directly overhead of the FA. With the
dry conditions out west, these stronger wind speeds will likely
lead to areas of blowing dust and/or dust storm like conditions
across much of the region. Low visibilities are expected with
widespread blowing dust, with significant visibility reductions
possible, but confidence in the magnitude of visibility reductions
remains low at this time. Not only will this system bring high
wind speeds today, but it will also bring extreme fire weather
conditions area-wide this afternoon, despite the slightly cooler
temperatures brought to us by the morning FROPA. Minimum RH values
are expected to be as low as 8% this afternoon and with ERC
values generally above the 50th and 75th percentiles and 20 foot
winds speeds around 40 to 50 mph, conditions will be favorable for
rapid spread of wildfires. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning is in
effect from 9 AM CDT through 10 PM CDT. Make sure to practice fire
weather safety and do your part and avoid activities that may
cause a spark this afternoon to help prevent wildfires.

This system is expected to eject quickly into the Central Plains by
this evening, which will therefore allow wind speeds to begin
diminishing around sunset. Where they will still remain elevated
around 25 to 20 mph overnight, as a surface trough located at the
base of the surface low to our north tracks through the DFW
metroplex tonight, ahead of the H5 longwave trough incoming from the
west on Saturday. Given these breezy wind speeds overnight,
overnight lows will remain on the milder side with lows in the 40s
off the Caprock and in the 30s on the Caprock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Much more tranquil weather will return to the region this weekend in
the wake of today's wind storm. After a breezy Saturday morning,
much calmer winds will return to the region on Saturday afternoon
as cool surface ridging builds into West Texas behind a weak cold
front. Although the potent upper low responsible for the high
winds today will be well to our northeast, longwave upper
troughing will still encompass most of the central CONUS on
Saturday, with models in good agreement depicting a few embedded
shortwave troughs passing overhead on Saturday. Combined with a
nearly saturated atmosphere above 700mb, the associated forcing
for ascent should be enough to generate some isolated to scattered
showers Saturday, although a very dry lower atmosphere (surface
T/Td spreads of 20-30F) will keep any precipitation very light.
Will nevertheless maintain blended SChc PoPs for areas on the
Caprock Saturday, and although any precipitation would mainly take
the form of rain with highs in the 50s to low 60s, a brief rain-
snow mix is possible early in the day across the SW TX Panhandle.

Upper level ridging will then build into the region on Sunday
resulting in a pleasant day with relatively light winds and mild
temperatures. Flow aloft will begin to turn more southwesterly on
Monday resulting in a return of persistent lee surface troughing to
our north and associated breezy and dry downslope surface flow.
Highs will consequently warm into the 80s on Monday, with critical
fire weather conditions also set to return area-wide. Looking
towards the middle of next week, there is good model consensus that
another potent mid/upper level storm system will track across the
CONUS in the Tue-Wed timeframe. Current model progs place a sub
990mb surface low over KS which would result in a fairly windy day
on Tuesday across West Texas, which combined with very warm and dry
conditions could bring widespread critical to perhaps extreme fire
danger to most of the region Tuesday. Cooler temperatures are then
likely to return Wednesday into Thursday behind the departing
system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

VFR conditions will begin to diminish through the early overnight
hours tonight as we begin to see wind speeds increase to around 20
knots, gusting to 30 knots through sunrise. Thereafter, a Pacific
front will cause a significant increase in wind speeds with gusts
upwards of 70 knots possible. KLBB and KPVW terminals will likely
see BLDU impact visibilities to low end MVFR late this morning and
possibly down to IFR late this afternoon. MVFR CIGS are likely at
KCDS where wind speeds will be lighter in comparison to KLBB and
KPVW. Wind speeds are expected to diminish by late this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop
this morning through the late evening hours as an upper level storm
system brings dangerous wind speeds to much of the region this
afternoon. Breezy southwesterly wind speeds are already occurring
across much of the Caprock early this morning, where they will veer
out of the west by daybreak as a Pacific Front quickly tracks
through the entire forecast area just after sunrise. Behind the
front, westerly wind speeds around 40 to 60 mph are expected to
occur with gusts up to 80 mph; with 20 foot wind speeds around 40 to
50 mph. Stronger wind speeds will be found across the Caprock,
specifically the far southwestern Texas Panhandle where isolated
extreme wind gusts up to 90 mph may be possible. Visibility
reductions, possibly significant, can be expected with widespread
blowing dust expected. Relative humidity values are expected to
be in the single digits across much of the South Plains and
Rolling Plains, with values in the lower teens across the far
southern Texas Panhandle. This in combination with the stronger
wind speeds and ERC values generally above the 50th and 75th
percentile will lead to conditions favorable of rapid wildfire
spread through much of the day. Wind speeds will begin to diminish
late this evening as the upper level system ejects to the
northeast around sunset. Wind speeds will still remain on the
breezy end overnight around 15 to 20 mph with overnight recoveries
in the 30th percentile across the Rolling Plains and around the
50th percentile across the South Plains and far southern Texas
Panhandle. Given these favorable conditions, a Red Flag Warning is
in effect from 9 AM CDT through 10 PM CDT today in addition to
the High Wind Warning in effect from 6 AM CDT until 8 PM CDT.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ021>044.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
412 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

TXZ021>044-150915-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
412 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A dangerous high wind event is expected today with sustained west
winds ranging from 40 to 55 mph with gusts up to 80 mph. Widespread
blowing dust will likely result in dust storm like conditions with
visibility potentially falling near zero at times. Hazardous travel
is expected area-wide today. A High Wind Warning is in effect until
8 PM CDT for the entire forecast area.

Extremely critical fire weather conditions will also occur today. Any
fires that develop today will spread rapidly and will have the
potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires that will be
difficult or impossible to control. A Red Flag Warning is in effect
until 10 PM CDT for the entire forecast area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Fire danger will increase once again early next week. Widespread
critical fire weather conditions are expected on Monday with
critical to extremely critical conditions expected on Tuesday.