A weak disturbance within an intense, progressive westerly jet stream caused brief high winds across the Guadalupe Mountains.
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The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A weak disturbance within an intense, progressive westerly jet stream caused brief high winds across the Guadalupe Mountains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 13, 4:19 AM CST, 1 hour 31 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
519 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 518 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025
- A Red Flag Warning is in effect form late this morning through
this evening for southeast New Mexico, down toward the Marfa
Plateau, and the northwestern Permian Basin. Windy and dry
conditions create critical fire weather conditions for these
locations today.
- Strong to very strong winds and critical to extreme fire weather
conditions are expected tomorrow as a potent system pushes into
the area. Behind the cold front, temperatures take a slight
dip.
- Heading into next week, we begin a warming trend ahead of
another upper-level system that looks to arrive
Tuesday/Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025
WV imagery this morning shows yesterday's upper trough moving
through the ArklaTex, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under northwest flow aloft. This will be temporary, as a larger
trough approaching the west coast is pushing a weak ridge through
the region.
The trough is forecast to make landfall later this morning, around
15Z or so, pushing the ridge farther east and transitioning flow
aloft to progressive southwesterly. Leeside surface troughing on
the Front Range will begin increasing southwest winds over the
higher terrain, with downslope warming under partly cloudy skies
increasing thicknesses and yielding pleasant afternoon highs around
10 F above normal. The NAM develops a mountain wave signature over
the Guadalupes this afternoon, and high winds look likely, but these
don't look strong enough, widespread enough, or long enough in
duration to warrant a warning, especially in lieu of what's on the
way tonight and Friday. Thus, we've cancelled the High Wind Warning
for this afternoon.
Tonight, the west coast trough will push east, tilting negatively
and moving through the Four Corners 06-09Z Friday. As this occurs,
the mountain wave signature goes off the chart, and 700mb height
gradients tighten up to better than 60m/100nm! This portends one of
the strongest high wind events for West Texas and Southeast new
Mexico in some time. High winds will develop in the Guadalupes
during the evening, but mountain waves/pressure gradients/MOS
suggest high winds could spread east and south after midnight. For
brevity and to avoid sowing confusion, we're going to avoid
advisories in areas that will be upgraded to warnings Friday, and
just issue warnings early instead. These warnings will be extended
through Friday evening. Hurricane force winds are expected in the
Guadalupes. Mixing and a few clouds will keep overnight minimums 9-
10 F above normal. Isolated showers are possible in the Guadalupes,
but QPF looks to be negligible.
Friday, the trough ejects, from northeast New Mexico at around 12Z
to northeast Kansas by 00Z Saturday. Subsidence on the backside of
the trough will translate high winds to the surface, and we've
issued a High Wind Watch for everything east of the Pecos not
already in a warning. Attm, a wind advisory should cover the rest
of the zones. Widespread BLDU is a given, as well as critical fire
weather, the details of which are in the Fire Weather Discussion
below. Unfortunately, cooler air on the backside of the trough will
keep afternoon highs right at, to around 5 F below, climatology.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025
Friday's troublesome upper-level trough will continue to gradually
make its way through our area overnight and through the day
Saturday. Winds remain breezy out of the west and northwest Friday
night and Saturday. Lows Friday night range from the mid 20s in
southeast New Mexico, the 30s for most, and the 40s near the Rio
Grande. Saturday's highs reach into the 60s for the majority of the
area, with 50s in the higher elevations and 70s near the Rio Grande.
Although this system will be moisture deprived for most of us, the
western half of our area will see low (10-30%) precipitation chances
Saturday morning associated with instability from the upper low.
Accumulation looks to be very light, potentially indicating light
showers or virga.
The upper trough finally lifts northeast by Sunday morning, bringing
about the return of more settled weather and a warming trend under
upper ridging. Highs Sunday warm into the 60s and 70s, then 70s and
80s on Monday. On Tuesday, another storm system swings over the
western US, strengthening southwesterly winds aloft. Meanwhile, at
the surface, an area of high pressure near the southeastern US and
an area of low pressure over the Central Great Plains steer our
winds out of the southwest. These features work in tandem to provide
us with our warmest day in the period, as highs Tuesday look to
range in the 80s and 90s, with some spots along the Rio Grande
heating up to the century mark! Alas, a cold front associated with
the upper trough arrives sometime Tuesday night, leading to lows in
the 40s and 50s, then highs Wednesday in the 60s and 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025
VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours. Southwest-to-west
surface winds will increase by late morning and become gusty, but
not near as strong as yesterday. A few high clouds will be
possible. Winds will decouple after sundown for a few hours.
However, as an upper trough approaches overnight, surface winds
will begin increasing as mountain waves develop and pressure
gradients tighten. These winds look to develop at KCNM near the
end of the forecast period, and at other terminals after 06Z
Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025
MinRH values in the teens and single digits, dry to critically dry
fuels, and breezy winds combine this afternoon over the higher
elevations and much of the western half of our region. As such, we
have issued a Red Flag Warning for southeast New Mexico down toward
the Marfa Plateau, and the western Permian Basin this afternoon
through this evening.
Friday is still on track to be our biggest fire weather threat day.
Strong to very strong winds, minRH values in the teens and single
digits, and ERC values well over the 90th percentile are expected
areawide. The culmination of these factors will lead to critical to
extreme fire weather conditions.
By Saturday, winds gradually taper down as the upper trough
progresses eastward. However, breezy winds keep the fire weather
threat critical from southeast New Mexico down toward the Big Bend.
The upper-level system finally departs Sunday, taking the winds and
increased fire weather conditions with it.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 82 51 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 77 43 61 38 / 0 20 0 0
Dryden 88 59 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 86 53 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 68 37 51 34 / 0 30 10 10
Hobbs 76 42 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 76 44 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 80 49 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 80 49 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 82 47 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County Plains-Van
Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
High Wind Warning from 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening to 1 AM
CDT /midnight MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above
7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-
Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-
Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves
County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
High Wind Warning from 1 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for
Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-
Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54
Corridor.
High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
Andrews-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reagan-Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento
Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.
High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to midnight MDT Friday
night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
Guadalupe Mountains.
High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to midnight MDT Friday
night for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-
Southern Lea.
&&
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...44The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A maximum wind gust of 58 MPH was observed at the West Texas Mesonet site, Guadalupe Mountains National Park, near Guadalupe Pass.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1243409.