A strong and progressive westerly jet stream over the southern United States, with a quickly developing low pressure over Oklahoma, resulted in high winds and a dust storm along a developing front.
Every event with a place to put it; 8 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A strong and progressive westerly jet stream over the southern United States, with a quickly developing low pressure over Oklahoma, resulted in high winds and a dust storm along a developing front.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 12, 3:01 AM CST, 6 hours 37 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
401 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 400 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
- High Wind hazards and a Red Flag Warning are in effect areawide
today as a storm system brings winds and heightened fire
weather concerns. Critical fire weather conditions and reduced
visibility due to blowing dust remain the main impacts through
this evening.
- A more potent system is set to arrive Friday, once again
bringing strong to very strong winds and critical to extreme
fire weather concerns to the area. Temperatures take a slight
dip behind the cold front.
- A warming trend begins heading into next week before another
system makes its way in around Tuesday/Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
WV imagery this morning shows the upper trough over SoCal/Baja del
Norte, resulting in progressive southwest flow aloft over West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico and portending a very windy day for the
region.
According to the latest NAM, a mountain wave signature is already
developing over the Guadalupes, although this is not yet evident in
observations. 700mb height gradients are still forecast to
tighten up to 60m/200nm or better today, and the track of the
trough suggests current warnings/advisories are generally on
track, accompanied by a heaping helping of BLDU. RFTIs are already
on the increase, suggesting a critical fire wx day area-wide. See
Fire Wx Discussion below for further details. Unfortunately, a
Pac front will accompany the trough, shaving 6-7 F off yesterday's
highs and bringing them down closer to normal.
Tonight, in the wake of the exiting trough, winds will decouple
after sundown, but remain somewhat elevated. This will combine with
increasing high clouds after midnight to keep overnight lows very
similar to this morning's...5-6 F above normal.
Thursday morning, a secondary trough is forecast to make landfall on
the west coast. Leeside surface troughing on the Front Range will
begin increasing southwest winds in the Guadalupes/Delawares,
with high winds possibly developing during the afternoon, and
we've issued a watch for that. Downslope warming will augment
increasing thicknesses to rebound highs to near where they ended
up yesterday...~ 9-10 F above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
An upper-level ridge quickly moves off to our east as another storm
system becomes negatively tilted overnight Thursday. All the while,
a surface low develops off the lee of the Rockies in the Central
Great Plains, then rapidly intensifies. The result will be a windbag
containing strong to very strong winds, blowing dust, and critical
to extreme fire weather conditions. NBM90 seems to reflect similar
wind speeds to MOS guidance fairly well; therefore, expect winds
sustained over 30 kts for much of the area, with gusts over 40 kts
by Friday afternoon.
Highs drop a bit behind the front Friday, topping out in the 60s for
most, while the 70s and 80s hang around in the Big Bend and Lower
Trans Pecos. Highs in the 50s and 60s spread in coverage on
Saturday. By Sunday, the trough progresses eastward and upper
ridging returns, setting the stage for a warming trend that lasts
through Tuesday. However, another trough looks to be on the horizon
by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
Westerly surface winds will increase and become gusty before or by
late morning, with a few high clouds. BLDU is a given, but we'll
keep visibilities MVFR for the time being. Winds will decouple
somewhat after sundown.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
A Red Flag Warning has been issued for today across the entire region.
Strong winds associated with a storm system combined with ERC values
well into the 90th percentile will provide favorable conditions for
rapid wildfire growth and spread. MinRH values will range from the
single digits to the teens this afternoon. The most critical conditions
will be in the higher elevations west of the Pecos River and adjacent
plains
Thursday will see a brief lull in winds, though the Guadalupe Mountains
may still see near critical to low end critical red flag conditions. A
more potent system arrives Friday, bringing very windy conditions to the
entire area. Despite cooler temperatures behind the cold front, very dry
fuels and strong winds mean more critical fire weather conditions are
expected, even worse than what will be seen today. Conditions improve
Saturday, though will remain elevated before light winds arrive
Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 77 45 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 71 45 76 42 / 0 0 0 20
Dryden 82 49 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 74 48 85 52 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 61 45 68 37 / 0 0 0 30
Hobbs 72 41 75 40 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 66 40 77 44 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 74 46 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 74 46 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 74 42 82 46 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ this morning to 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Davis Mountains-Davis
Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains
Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Reeves
County Plains.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-Central
Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis
Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern
Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above
7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-
Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-
Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
Delaware Mountains.
Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-
Chisos Basin-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
NM...High Wind Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
evening for Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
County.
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening
for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
Guadalupe Mountains.
High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening
for Central Lea-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.
&&
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...44The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 high wind, 4 dust storm. Local standard time, as filed.
A maximum wind gust of 70 MPH was observed at the RAWS station, GDBT2, The Bowl.
A maximum wind gust of 60 MPH was observed at the RAWS site, PSGT2 Pinery.
A maximum wind gust of 71 MPH was recorded at the West Texas Mesonet site, Guadalupe Mountains National Park, near Guadalupe Pass.
A report of near zero visibility from blowing dust was received from the Chihuahuan Desert Research Institute. Wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph were reported in the region.
A maximum wind gust of 67 MPH was observed with a virga shower along a strong front at the West Texas Mesonet site, 5NW Colorado City.
The Pecos County Emergency Manager reports near zero visibility along FM 1776 between FM 1450 and the Pecos River. Multiple vehicle accidents were reported. Wind gusts up to 40 MPH were observed in the region during this time. No information on possible injuries was received. The property damage cost is an estimation.
The Upton County Sheriff reported a road closure due to an accident near Midkiff between State Highway 349 and State Highway 137. This was due to near-zero visibility due to blowing dust. Wind gusts up to 40 mph were observed in the area during this time. No information on injuries was received. The property damage cost is an estimation.
A public report of less than a quarter mile visibility near Garden City along Ranch Road 33 and State Highway 158. Wind gusts of around 40 MPH were observed in the region.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1242962, 1242963, 1242961, 1242958, 1242960, 1242957, 1242956, 1242959.