Remnant tropical moisture along with an upper level area of low pressure resulted in showers and thunderstorms across portions of the northwest Hill Country, which produced flash flooding on July 7th. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms developed across portions of the Concho Valley and Big Country on July 8th and July 9th, producing severe wind gusts.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJT wrote it up.
Remnant tropical moisture along with an upper level area of low pressure resulted in showers and thunderstorms across portions of the northwest Hill Country, which produced flash flooding on July 7th. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms developed across portions of the Concho Valley and Big Country on July 8th and July 9th, producing severe wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 7, 4:46 AM CST, 6 hours 14 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 546 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Flash Flood Watch in effect today until 7 PM for central, eastern and southeastern parts of the area. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms anticipated this morning through the afternoon, some with locally heavy rainfall. - Warmer temperatures by the latter part of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 The WV satellite imagery early this morning is showing a slow moving/weak disturbance just southeast of the Northwest Hill Country slowly drifting northwest. Also, PW axis (2 to 2.2 inches) is located along the I-35 corridor over central and south Texas. Across our area, PW values were greater than 1.5 inches east of a Sweetwater to Mertzon to Ozona line. Also, elevated instability(1500 to 2500 J/kg)covered much of our area. Current radar trends only showing a few showers at this time. Conditions( due to tropical thermodynamics/weak steering flow aloft/backbuilding convection) are favorable for another flash flood event at least locally today. It may start as early as 08Z across the San Saba, Mason and Kimble counties. The weak disturbance will drift west and combine with moderate elevated instability this morning to fire a few thunderstorms. The high end PW values environment will mean rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour with any slow moving thunderstorms, before 12Z. Again, there is a lot uncertainty on location of storms and even if they develop, and will watch radar trends closely. There is current MPD out from WPC for the above mention counties. For this afternoon, more diurnal showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly south of a Sterling City to Brownwood line with coverage being scattered to numerous, per Hi-Res models. The main hazards will be flash flooding due to very high rainfall rates, dangerous lightning and gusty winds. Will keep the Flood Watch going until 7 PM this evening for the Heartland, Northwest Hill Country, eastern 2/3 of the Concho Valley and Schleicher County. Please keep up with the latest weather information and have many ways to receive warnings. looks like mainly quiet weather tonight, besides a few showers. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 107 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 An upper level high will be centered over Arizona/New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday, and our area will be on its eastern periphery. Our northern and eastern counties will have a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday, mainly in the afternoon as a weak disturbance rotates around the east side of the high. Some of our eastern and southeastern counties have a low chance (20-30 percent) for showers and storms Wednesday afternoon. With precipitable water values forecast to be 1.5 to 1.7 inches, brief heavy rain will be possible with any showers/storms. Daily highs Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to remain below normal for early July and mostly in the upper 80s to lower 90s. By late week the upper high is progged to retrograde over the Desert Southwest, and our area will be under a weakness in the height field aloft. With a gradual increase in 850mb temperatures, the daily highs will trend upward as well and highs will be mostly in the lower to mid 90s Thursday and Friday. A shear axis aloft is forecast to be over our area next weekend. A few showers and storms will be possible over portions of the Big Country Saturday, and over our eastern counties Sunday. Little change in temperatures is indicated. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Expect a few hours of MVFR/IFR ceilings at most of the terminals this morning. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions this afternoon and evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this morning and afternoon and have PROB30 groups for the terminals, besides KABI. In addition, a few storms may move into the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country after 12Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 87 73 91 73 / 40 0 20 10 San Angelo 86 72 90 72 / 50 0 10 10 Junction 86 70 89 70 / 60 10 10 10 Brownwood 84 72 89 71 / 60 10 10 10 Sweetwater 90 73 92 73 / 20 0 10 10 Ozona 86 71 89 71 / 40 0 0 0 Brady 82 70 87 70 / 60 10 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for Brown-Coke-Coleman-Concho- Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Tom Green. && SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...21
The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 124 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:59 UTC.
4 flash flood, 4 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Fire Department reported a high water rescue at the intersection of FM 765 and County Road 450 due to flooding.
Public reported flooding south of Brownwood near US Highway 377 and FM 1176. Parts of the road had water up the doors of an SUV.
Law enforcement reported flood waters getting into homes in Menard. In addition, the flow at the San Saba River was elevated and producing flooding across a low water crossing.
A mesonet observation station reported a 62 mph wind gust.
A mesonet observation station reported a 67 mph wind gust.
A mesonet observation station reported a 59 mph wind gust.
The ASOS at the San Angelo Mathis Field Regional Airport recorded a wind gust of 59 mph.
The McCulloch County Sheriff's Office reported widespread street flooding in the city of Brady, with several roads closed due to high flood waters.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1286314, 1287883, 1286315, 1286329, 1286319, 1286320, 1286331, 1286325.