On July 7, 2025, a lee surface trough pushed into western Nebraska and South Dakota during the afternoon, initiating scattered thunderstorms across the region. By evening, these storms consolidated into a larger mesoscale convective system (MCS) that tracked into northeast Nebraska before expanding southward across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa through the night.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OAX wrote it up.
On July 7, 2025, a lee surface trough pushed into western Nebraska and South Dakota during the afternoon, initiating scattered thunderstorms across the region. By evening, these storms consolidated into a larger mesoscale convective system (MCS) that tracked into northeast Nebraska before expanding southward across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa through the night.
Ahead of the main MCS, several discrete supercells developed in northeast Nebraska, producing significant hail. Notable reports included measured 3-inch diameter stones 3 miles west of Obert, NE; hail estimated near tennis-ball size 4 miles west-northwest of Winnetoon, NE; and a measured 1.75-inch stone 3 miles east-southeast of Wynot, NE. As the evening progressed, these initial cells were absorbed into the growing MCS, which transitioned into a primarily damaging wind threat. A swath of measured wind gusts ranging from 58 to 67 mph was reported across much of east-central Nebraska into southwest Iowa.
The convective complex gradually weakened as it approached the northern Kansas and Missouri border. However, widespread heavy rainfall persisted behind the system, leading to flooding concerns particularly in northeast Nebraska, where emergency management reported water over multiple highways and roadways in Antelope, Boone, and Platte Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Omaha, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 7, 12:37 PM CST, 4 hours 9 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 137 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Line of strong to severe storms expected this evening. Primary hazard: damaging winds (70+ mph). Hail, brief tornado, and heavy rainfall also possible. - Additional chances for storms through the rest of the work week, with Thursday night looking like our next best chance for severe weather. - Drier, milder weather possible next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 137 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Right now across our area we're seeing partly cloudy skies with hazy conditions aloft, likely from a high smoke layer out of western Canada. Vis satellite shows a fairly active cu field across our area indicating a significant amount of instability, which models predict to be around 2000-2500 J/kg. This sets us up for potential severe weather this evening as an MCS is forecast to drop south out of eastern South Dakota, bringing a fairly good damaging wind threat as well as a low hail and tornado threat. In water vapor imagery, you can see the approaching shortwave over central South Dakota this afternoon. This is expected to trigger storms across southeast South Dakota sometime between 3-5 PM. These storms will then congeal, feeding off an ample amount of environmental CAPE to produce a broad MCS that will drop south across our area tonight. While CAMs indicate uncertainty in storm initiation time, based on current observations we would lean towards later arrival times for storms, more likely seeing storms move into northeast Nebraska between 6-7 PM, arriving in the Omaha Metro around 10-11 PM. While environmental shear isn't remarkable, the orientation of 0-3km shear vectors indicates potential for a brief spin-up or two (tornadoes), which will be closely monitored. As the MCS progresses southward, it will be moving into an environment of weaker shear, which likely won't support this system maintaining it's strength lending toward a weakening trend as the line progresses southward. One additional hazard we will be monitoring is the potential for locally heavy rainfall, especially in the later stages of the MCS. PWAT values will be ranging from 1.5 to 1.75 across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, lending toward efficient rain- producing storms. For the most part, storms should be moving well enough to keep from getting heavy enough rainfall totals for flooding, but as the MCS weakens and slows down we may see the boundary stall across southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa. This could lead to storm training along the boundary and locally higher amounts in this area. Tuesday, a meso-high will be in place through most of the day as the atmosphere will be well worked-over from overnight storms. This should keep conditions dry. Temperatures will warm into the mid-to-upper 80s, with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s making it feel muggy. For the second half of the week, the upper-level pattern remains active with a ridge over the Desert Southwest creating northwesterly flow across Nebraska and the Central Plains. This pattern is conducive for MCS development in the summertime, especially with a good enough moisture tap via the diurnal low- level jet, pulling in moisture from the Gulf each evening. This pattern remains in place through the end of the week, with our next MCS forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday morning (20-30% chance), and a higher chance for another MCS Thursday night into Friday(50-60% chance). WPC is already highlighting the Thursday night-Friday morning timeframe with a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall, due to the west-east orientation of the surface boundary, orthogonal to the low-level jet. This supports the potential for training storms with heavy rainfall. Temperatures through the end of the week will remain fairly steady with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s to low 70s. Rain chances drop off Saturday and Sunday as we see the ridge over the Southwest retreat westward over the Coast of California. This will shift the storm track further south and bring in milder temperatures. Highs may only get into the low 80s on Saturday, though we see them warm back up into the upper 80s going into Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1158 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 VFR conditions through this afternoon under partly cloudy skies, with cigs staying elevated. Winds are out of the east or southeast across our area, becoming more southerly with time. A line of storms will approach from the north this evening with strong to severe northerly winds possible in excess of 50kt as they arrive. Window of arrival for KOFK is around 23-02Z, 01-04Z at KOMA, and 02-05Z at KLNK. Storms should be weakening as they travel south, with best chance for severe winds at KOFK. Expect a shift to northerly winds once the line moves through with additional showers and storms possible for a few hours after the leading line moves through. Winds should remain predominantly out of the north through Tuesday morning, though they could become variable at times, staying 5 kt or less. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...McCoy
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 259 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034- 042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-081000- Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont- Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison- Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler- Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline- Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson- 259 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast Nebraska and southeast Nebraska. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A line of storms is expected to move through the area this evening into the overnight period (60-90% chance). Some of these storms could be severe, especially in northeast Nebraska, with damaging winds being the primary threat. Small hail, localized heavy rainfall, and a brief tornado can't be ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Daily 20 to 40% precipitation chances return starting Wednesday through Friday. The severe weather potential will be better addressed in the coming days. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed Monday evening.
The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 158 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:44 UTC.
11 thunderstorm wind, 6 hail, 4 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Trained spotter report of hail nearing tennis ball-size from chaser live stream. Time estimated from radar on Highway 14 West of Winnetoon, NE.
Public report of hail estimated up to quarter sized mixed in with dime sized hail.
Public report of hail measured up to 1.75 inch in diameter.
Public report of hail estimated at 3 to 3.5 inch in diameter.
Trained spotter report of hail measured up to 1 inch in diameter.
Fire department/rescue report of hail measured up to quarter sized, mixed in with mostly penny to nickel sized hail.
KTQE ASOS measured thunderstorm wind gust of 60 mph.
Official NWS observation with a measured wind gust of 61 mph, associated with the outflow boundary of a thunderstorm.
Personal weather station measured wind gust of 62 mph.
Personal weather station measured wind gust of 61 mph.
Personal weather station measured wind gust of 58 mph.
Personal weather station measured wind gust of 58 mph.
Trained spotter report of a measured wind gust of 67 mph.
Trained spotter report of snapped 4 inch in diameter tree branches. Wind gusts were estimated near 60-65 mph.
During the evening of July 7th, heavy rainfall moved through central Antelope county with rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour at times with an estimated 1-3 inches of total rainfall. This led to flash flooding with law enforcement reporting water covering about 40 yards of the east bound land of Highway 275 heading into Clearwater, NE.
Mesonet report of wind gusts measured at 59 mph, associated with the outflow boundary of a thunderstorm.
Personal weather station measured wind gust of 62 mph.
Personal weather station measured wind gust of 59 mph.
During the evening of July 7th, heavy rainfall moved through central Boone county with rainfall rates of 1.5-3 inches per hour at times with an estimated 3-4 inches of total rainfall. This led to flash flooding with emergency management reporting water over Highway 32 between 320th and 330th. This flash flood also continued into Platte and Madison counties.
During the evening of July 7th, heavy rainfall moved through southwest Madison county with rainfall rates of 1.5-3 inches per hour at times with an estimated 3-4 inches of total rainfall. This led to flash flooding with emergency management reporting water over roadways. This flash flood also continued into Platte and Boone counties.
During the evening of July 7th, heavy rainfall moved through northwest Platte county with rainfall rates of 1.5-3 inches per hour at times with an estimated 3-4 inches of total rainfall. This led to flash flooding with emergency management reporting water over the roadway 1.5 miles east of Highway 91 and 45. This flash flood also continued into Boone and Madison counties.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1278703, 1278705, 1278707, 1278708, 1278709, 1278711, 1278714, 1278715, 1278716, 1278721, 1278718, 1278717, 1278720, 1278724, 1278832, 1278732, 1278730, 1278728, 1278828, 1278830, 1278831.