A mesoscale convective vortex developed over northern Mexico and sent an outflow boundary into South-Central Texas. Thunderstorms in this complex produced locally heavy rain that led to flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.
A mesoscale convective vortex developed over northern Mexico and sent an outflow boundary into South-Central Texas. Thunderstorms in this complex produced locally heavy rain that led to flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 12:15 AM CST, 2 hours 32 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 115 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Flood Watch remains in effect until 1 PM Tuesday for the Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and portions of the Rio Grande Plains and I-35 corridor. - Additional rainfall of 1-3 inches with isolated higher totals up to 6 inches possible mainly this morning. Additional river rises are possible. - Drier conditions mid to late week with slightly higher temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 113 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 As of about midnight Tuesday, scattered showers and storms associated with an MCV near the Mexican border were beginning to spread northward across the Rio Grande Plains and into the southern Edwards Plateau. This activity is tapping into an overlapping nocturnal intensification of the 850mb low level jet, which is enhancing convergence within a plume of moist air with precipitable water values nearing and exceeding 2 inches, corresponding to values above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Additional showers and storms are expected over the course of the early morning hours, with some of the high-resolution models showing a gradual spread of the rain envelope into the western Hill Country. Boundaries left behind by storms earlier in the evening may also concentrate additional downpours along north-to-south lines. The modeled atmospheric conditions indicate an environment continuing to favor efficient rainfall, leading to high rain rates which could locally reach 2 inches per hour at times. The 00Z HREF LPMM indicated the highest rain totals through this morning could approach 6 inches in localized spots as showers continue to stream northward. Much of Tuesday morning's rains will be falling atop sensitive soils already moistened heavily by Monday morning's rains, leading to an increased potential for runoff which could trigger flash flooding. Given these factors, it is prudent to be weather aware and have multiple methods of receiving weather warnings. Southwesterly deep-layer flow should cause the overall area of heavy rain showers and storms to gradually continue northeast during the morning along with the MCV. Evolution of the MCV itself is uncertain, though most models move its associated vorticity northward. There should be a general decrease in the intensity and coverage of rain late-morning and afternoon as the low-level jet weakens. However, rains may continue to be enhanced near the MCV as it drifts out of our area and draws in more unstable air. Most of the high-resolution guidance has the MCV out of the CWA by Tuesday evening with a subsequent decrease in rain chances over the area, though there could be some reinvigoration of isolated showers with daytime heating over South-Central Texas towards the late afternoon and early evening. As we head into Tuesday night into Wednesday, the growth of subtropical ridging centered over the lower Mississippi Valley is forecast to nudge the corridor of moist air and convergence farther to the west, displacing it away from the Gulf and leading to a reduction in moisture and rain chances. Wednesday looks dry for most, though ridging appears relatively weak and could allow for an isolated shower or storm accompanying onshore flow/seabreeze over the Coastal Plains. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 113 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Continued extension of the mid- to upper-level Gulf coast ridge into our area should generally support an increase in daytime temperatures during the mid to late week with mostly dry conditions. While medium-range ensembles show a summertime ridge pattern developing over the course of the week, we are monitoring a tropical disturbance currently offshore the eastern coast of Florida. As the ridge builds, this disturbance could track west along or parallel to the northern US Gulf coast during the latter part of the week. Most of the model guidance does not bring this feature as far west as our area, though it will be worth keeping an eye on. Aside from this disturbance, which could stick around into the weekend, there is good consensus from ensemble guidance that the broader ridging pattern holds through the weekend and into Monday with near average temperatures. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 113 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 VFR conditions prevail across area terminals as of 06Z, but shortly that changes into MVFR category as a low cloud deck develops. By 07Z, MVFR cigs are forecast for the I-35 sites and remain through at least 15Z Tuesday. MVFR cigs are expected to affect the KDRT around 13Z, however, showers and storms could be affecting the site with cigs coming up and down overnight. VFR conditions return by 16Z for the I-35 airports and by 19Z for KDRT. A southerly flow around 5 to 10 knots is forecast to dominate overnight across the terminals with speeds increasing late Tuesday morning to 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 94 76 96 74 / 10 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 94 75 96 74 / 10 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 95 75 97 73 / 10 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 91 73 92 71 / 20 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 91 77 96 76 / 30 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 93 74 94 72 / 10 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 92 74 96 72 / 30 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 94 74 97 72 / 10 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 93 75 94 74 / 10 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 94 77 96 74 / 10 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 96 77 98 74 / 10 10 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Bandera-Bexar-Blanco- Burnet-Comal-Edwards-Gillespie-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano- Maverick-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-Zavala. && Short-Term...Tran Long-Term...Tran Aviation...17
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1011 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025
TXZ202-203-217-218-150345-
Maverick TX-Uvalde TX-Kinney TX-Zavala TX-
1011 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Kinney,
northeastern Maverick, southwestern Uvalde and northwestern Zavala
Counties through 1045 PM CDT...
At 1010 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Paloma to 11 miles southwest of La Pryor.
Movement was north at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Brackettville, Spofford, Dabney, Blewett, Paloma, Anacacho, Standart,
Darling, Radar Base, Fort Clark Springs, and Laughlin AFB Aux Field.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 2936 10066 2924 9989 2876 9988 2885 10050
TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 171DEG 27KT 2890 10043 2883 9998
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
TranThe Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 30 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 08:46 UTC.
8 flash flood, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. The fire department made a high water rescue of a driver of a semi-trailer truck that was swept off Hwy 55 at the Nueces River.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding closing Ray McDonald Ranch Rd. at the Nueces River north of Camp Wood.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding sending five feet of water from Camp Wood Creek over RR 337 northeast of Camp Wood.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. Montell Creek overflowed sending four feet of water over Hwy 55 south of Montell.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. A driver was rescued from rising floodwater at CR 416 and the Nueces River northeast of Montell.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding closing RM 335. The emergency manager estimated four feet of water over the road.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding closing several roads in county including RM 481, RM 1572, and RM 334.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. One person died at RM 187 and the Frio River when their vehicle was submerged at a low water crossing. The Frio River levels rose due to heavy rainfall upstream on the 14th and 15th.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding closing FM 187 at the Sabinal River. The emergency manager reported about 1.5 feet of water over the road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1280573, 1280574, 1280575, 1280576, 1280580, 1280582, 1280585, 1280591, 1280782.