Texas, 2025Dense Fog in Texas, January 2, 2025
January 2, 2025 · NWS CRP · 1 event in 1 county or zone
Two people were taken to the hospital with minor injuries following a seven-vehicle chain reaction crash near Aransas Pass just at the start of the New Year, according to the Texas DPS. m.
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 2
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Two people were taken to the hospital with minor injuries following a seven-vehicle chain reaction crash near Aransas Pass just at the start of the New Year, according to the Texas DPS. The incident occurred around 7:50 a.m. on Highway 35 amidst dense fog, which authorities believe contributed to the severity of the crash. A 19-year-old man driving a 2012 Chevy Impala lost control and hit a guardrail, leaving his vehicle disabled in the roadway. A 17-year-old woman driving a 2022 Dodge Ram 1500 then collided with the Impala, disabling her truck. Several other vehicles were involved in subsequent collisions.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Corpus Christi, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 2, 5:34 AM CST, 2 hours 16 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 2, 5:34 AM CST, 2 hours 16 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
534 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2025
A sfc coastal trough is beginning to develop the Lower Texas Coast
to the Middle Texas Coast this morning. Light rain/drizzle is
beginning to develop in response to the isentropic lift on the north
side of the trough mainly south of Baffin Bay at the moment
(07z/Thu). As the low progresses north, the rain shower/patchy
drizzle will continue moving up the coast as well through the day.
By the afternoon, the main part of the Sfc low will be past us, and
the rain looks to mainly stay offshore and move further up the coast
by the evening. Tonight, the main concern is fog, The low level
moisture (PWAT values around 1.00") will be trapped under the
inversion at 850 mb. The question becomes will we get significant
dense fog by Friday morning with the very light north (<4 kts) sfc
flow and the low clouds that are already trapped under the
inversion. UPS fog (crossover temperature method) would suggest that
ALI and CRP would see areas of fog. The models suggest that VCT to
BKS would have areas of fog, and areas east. Looking at the NBM
statistical information, there is a 30-40% chance of widespread fog
with visibilities under 3 miles, and around 20-25% near the coast
and out in the Rio Grande Plains. So will have areas of fog in the
forecast for early Friday morning. By Noon Friday, models suggesting
that the fog and the clouds, to some extent will be out of the
region as the sfc ridge axis moves south, and pushes the low level
moisture back out, over the Gulf. Temperatures on Friday look to
warm into the lower to mid 70s as the clouds and moisture move
out.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2025
Key Messages:
- Medium to High (50-80%) chance of freezing temperatures each
morning from Tuesday through Tuesday across the Victoria Crossroads
and northern portions of the Coastal Plains
- Increasing concern for minor coastal flooding next week
No significant changes in the long term forecast package. South to
southeasterly flow returns Saturday, strengthening through Sunday
morning in advance of a strong cold front. Efficient WAA will allow
for highs to reach the low to mid 80s on Sunday. But this will be
the last time we'll see the 80s for a long stretch (about time...).
Latest guidance has trended sooner for the FROPA timing, looking
more like Sunday afternoon to Sunday night. This cold front will
bring much colder and drier air into South Texas, causing lows to
drop around 25 degrees from Saturday night to Sunday night, ranging
from the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Surface high pressure will shift southward through the Great Plains
into the middle of next week, keeping northeasterly flow and below
normal temperatures intact. An inverted surface coastal trough is
expected to develop over the Lower Texas Coast to northern Mexico
Coast. This low-level feature will enhance moisture up to 850mb in
combination to an approaching amplified mid-level trough moving
eastward from northern Mexico in the middle of next week. Therefore,
low 20-30% rain chances return Tuesday and Thursday and will flirt
with near freezing temperatures at night. It is worth mentioning
that although NBM guidance for freezing temperatures have increased
over South Texas, especially the Victoria Crossroads and northern
Coastal Plains, both the 0Z GFS/ECMWF ensemble probabilities of
freezing temperatures have decreased. I'm leaning more towards the
NBM with the frequent changes of temperatures run to run. All to say
that uncertainty remains high and will not include any mention of
wintry precipitation at this time.
Temperatures will be below normal from Sunday night through
Wednesday night. In fact, there is a medium to high (60-95%) chance
of lows below 40 degrees across all of South Texas during this time
frame. Highs will be dependent on whether CAA from northeasterly
flow remains or more easterly flow from the coastal trough develops.
Right now, Wednesday's highs are expected to be the lower with mid
40s to lower 50s across the region.
As mentioned in previous discussions, there will be an increasing
risk for minor coastal flooding next week due to the persistent
strong northeasterly flow enforcing the Ekman transport mechanism,
and swell periods around 8 seconds. The only good news in terms of
tide levels is we'll be in an astronomical low tide due to being in
the first quarter moon phase.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2025
A coastal low will move up from Lower Texas Coast to the Middle
Texas Coast and then out over the Gulf of Mexico by the
afternoon. as it does, the TAF sites should fall to MVFR CIGs with
light rain showers or patchy drizzle. The CIGS will become VFR
again late in the afternoon, as the clouds begin to clear out.
However, with light winds, clear skies, and low level moisture
that we don't get rid of, fog and low clouds are expected. There
is a 30-50% chance of the VSBY falling below MVFR, and several
models are showing LIFR VSBYs by 09z/Fri. have trend the TAFS that
way with ALI, CRP, and VCT having the LIFR. While IFR clouds move
in over the forecast area, including LRD and COT at the same
time, there is uncertainty that the VSBY falls below MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2025
Weak to moderate northeast flow is expected today. Low to medium
rain chances will develop and remain through tonight. Weak to
Moderate northeasterly flow will continue tonight and Friday.
Weak to moderate northeasterly flow will veer back southeasterly
Saturday. Southerly flow will strengthen to 20-25 knots Saturday
night and continue through Sunday before a strong cold front
pushes through Sunday night. Strong northeasterly flow of 20-25
knots will follow in wake of the front and continue into the
middle of next week. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected
from Saturday night through Wednesday. Low rain chances of 20 to
30 percent will continue into early next week before increasing
slightly heading into the middle of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 69 57 72 59 / 30 0 0 0
Victoria 69 53 74 53 / 10 0 0 0
Laredo 69 55 74 59 / 0 0 0 0
Alice 70 54 74 55 / 20 0 10 0
Rockport 70 58 72 60 / 30 0 0 0
Cotulla 69 54 74 57 / 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 69 56 73 57 / 30 0 10 0
Navy Corpus 69 61 69 63 / 40 0 10 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....EMF/94
AVIATION...JSL/86
Dense Fog, Coastal San Patricio County
- When
- January 2, 7:50 AM CST to 9:40 AM CST
- Where
- Coastal San Patricio County forecast zone
- Injuries
- 0 direct, 2 indirect
- Reported by
- Newspaper
- Coordinates
- 28.009, -97.518 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Two injured after seven-vehicle crash amidst heavy fog in the area.
- Dense Fog
- Fog reducing visibility to a quarter mile or less, filed where it caused accidents or disruption.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Winter Storm and Winter Weather in Montana, January 2 to 4, 20252 deaths · 2 injured · 7 events
- Winter Weather in Iowa, January 2, 202512 events
- High Wind and Winter Weather in Nevada, January 2 to 4, 202576 kt wind · 5 events
- Dense Fog in California, January 2, 20253 events
- Winter Weather in Michigan, January 2 to 4, 20253 events
- High Wind in Wyoming, January 2 to 3, 202556 kt wind · 3 events
- Winter Weather in Iowa, January 2, 20252 events
- Winter Weather in Nebraska, January 2, 20252 events
- Winter Weather in Idaho, January 2 to 4, 20252 events
- Extreme Cold in Alaska, January 2 to 4, 20251 event
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1235768.