In mid-January, long-range guidance from the CPC began signaling a period of colder-than-normal temperatures across the central United States, with a slight risk of hazardous cold extending into South Texas around January 20. Although precipitation chances were noted, they were not as prominent as the cold signal.
Every event with a place to put it; 39 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CRP wrote it up.
In mid-January, long-range guidance from the CPC began signaling a period of colder-than-normal temperatures across the central United States, with a slight risk of hazardous cold extending into South Texas around January 20. Although precipitation chances were noted, they were not as prominent as the cold signal. As the event drew closer, medium-range forecasts maintained high confidence in below-normal temperatures, particularly across the eastern U.S., with increasing indications of above-normal precipitation near the Gulf Coast. In South Texas, a moderate risk of dangerously cold temperatures emerged, though no significant signals for heavy snowfall were present. Forecast models showed a 500 mb pattern supportive of sustained cold, driven by upstream Arctic ridging, but the precise configuration remained critical for South Texas impacts. Near the surface, the formation and placement of a coastal trough introduced uncertainty, leading to run-to-run variability in temperature forecasts and limited confidence in precipitation type.
As the event moved into the mesoscale range, mixed precipitation threats began to become clearer, with model soundings suggesting a potential for freezing drizzle or sleet depending on the depth of the cold layer. A strong cold front passed through the area late January 18 into early January 19, delivering a sharp drop in temperatures (over 30 degrees) and establishing a dry Arctic air mass that lingered through Monday, January 20. On Monday, very light wintry precipitation occurred, aided by wet-bulb cooling, before warming and moistening of the atmospheric column later that day. By the 00Z sounding on January 21, a pronounced warm nose (5 C) was present with strong warm advection, though moisture above 700 mb remained limited, hampering ice crystal formation. By 12Z, the warm nose weakened, and a deep subfreezing layer supported sleet, but poor saturation in the dendritic growth zone meant freezing drizzle remained the dominant precipitation type. Over the duration of the event, the office issued 20 long-fused hazard products between January 18 and 22, including Winter Weather Advisories, Winter Storm Warnings, Cold Weather Advisories, Freeze Warnings, and various wind-related products.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Corpus Christi, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 18, 10:32 PM CST, 5 hours 28 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1032 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
The cold front will sweep across the waters tonight increasing
winds to strong to very strong. A Gale Warning has been issued for
the coastal waters from 4 AM to 10 AM Sunday. Small Craft Advisory
conditions will continue ahead of the Gale Warning and will linger
after the Gale Warning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 339 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
Key Messages:
- Cold Weather Advisory late tonight into Sunday morning for
portions of the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Plains.
- Elevated fire weather conditions on Sunday.
- Freeze Watch in effect Sunday night across much of South Texas.
Much drier conditions have developed across South Texas today in the
wake of this morning's front. Relative humidity values have dropped
to less than 40% at most locations, with portions of the Brush
Country registering minimum RH values into the teens. Although
surface winds have been gusty at around 15-20 MPH at times, these
are progged to decouple over the next few hours, ending any existing
fire weather concerns. Minimum RH values will again be in the 20-30%
range areawide on Sunday, while winds will be a bit stronger. Given
this scenario, Elevated fire weather concerns will exist tomorrow.
Temperatures have been very warm today despite the frontal passage.
However, conditions will be quick to change tonight as a surge in
high pressure leads to strong CAA over the area. Overnight
temperatures are forecast to fall into the 30s areawide, while a
few locations may briefly experience freezing temperatures by the
early morning hours of Sunday. In addition, the combination of the
near freezing temperatures and breezy conditions will result in
wind chill values down to around 20-25 degrees F over portions of
the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Plains. A Cold Weather
Advisory is in effect for this area from 4 to 9 AM Sunday.
Highs tomorrow will struggle to get out of the 40s across much of
the area, and by tomorrow night, temperatures are forecast to
plummet into the mid 20s to mid 30s range areawide. A Freeze Watch
has been issued for Sunday night covering all but the coastal and
island portions of the coastal counties. Another Cold Weather
Advisory is likely to be required tomorrow night, but have held off
on its issuance right now as to not confuse the public from the
one issued for tonight. Now with that said, wind chill values could
drop to near 15 degrees F over portions of the inland counties. These
very cold temperatures could lead to hypothermia with prolonged
exposure. Remember to dress in layers, limit your time outdoors,
and don't forget to protect people at risk, pets, pipes, and
plants from these very cold conditions.
No precipitation is forecast to occur through the short-term
period, as PWATs will remain at around 0.25-0.40", and well below
normal. Keep in mind though, there will be a substantial shift in
weather conditions early in the week with wintry precipitation
entering the forecast, so please refer to the long-term
discussion for more information.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
Key Messages:
- Wintry Precipitation possible mainly along and west of HWY-59
beginning Monday evening through Tuesday.
- Widespread Freezing Temperatures expected through much of the
upcoming week.
A robust mid-to-upper-level trough will amplify and move through the
southwestern CONUS into Texas on Monday, Martin Luther King Jr. Day,
bringing significant weather chances to the region. At the surface,
a strong Arctic high-pressure system will surge southward,
reinforcing CAA across the area. Meanwhile, a coastal trough
transitioning into a Gulf low, will draw moisture northward,
setting the stage for potential winter weather Monday night into
Tuesday.
Monday will begin cold and mostly sunny, with sub-freezing morning
temperatures. During the afternoon, cloud cover will increase from
south to north as the coastal trough develops, capping highs in the
low to mid-40s and low 50s near the coast. Scattered showers are
expected to develop along the coast by the afternoon.
Precipitation will become more widespread Monday night as the Gulf
low intensifies and moves eastward, interacting with the Arctic
airmass to the north. Initially, the vertical temperature profile
will support a mix of precipitation types. Forecast soundings
indicate a shallow near-surface freezing layer combined with a
modest warm nose aloft. This setup suggests low to medium
probabilities (20-60%) for freezing rain/drizzle and rain as the
dominant precipitation types, with lower confidence in the
development of snow or sleet.
The highest probabilities for snow accumulations are centered in the
Victoria Crossroads region, with the greatest chances for freezing
rain along and west of the HWY-59 corridor. However, areas farther
south and west cannot be ruled out entirely. Confidence in
specific precipitation types and amounts remains low due to
uncertainties in the Gulf low's track and the thermal profile.
Model guidance is currently split on the exact track and extent of
the warm layer aloft, leading to variability in forecasts.
Higher-resolution models coming into range soon should provide
additional clarity. Continued monitoring is advised as details
evolve.
As precipitation diminishes Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will
struggle to rise above the mid 30s to low 40s, and refreezing is
likely overnight. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will bring
the coldest temperatures of the week, with widespread low in the
teens across the Victoria Crossroads with low to mid 20s elsewhere.
A gradual warming trend will follow, with highs reaching the 40s on
Wednesday, 50s on Thursday, and 50s to 60s by the weekend. However,
overnight lows will remain in the 20s to 30s through Friday,
prolonging the potential for freezing conditions.
This extended period of subfreezing temperatures, combined with
wintry precipitation, presents significant hazards. Travel impacts
are likely, particularly on elevated surfaces such as bridges and
overpasses. Minor to moderate disruptions are expected, with
WPC's Winter Storm Severity Index highlighting increased risks
across portions of the Victoria Crossroads, northern Coastal
Plains, and northern Brush Country. Preparations should include
protecting pipes, pets, plants, and people.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1023 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle at area
terminals. Northerly winds will strengthen tonight with gusts to
25-30 knots. Winds will diminish Sunday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 36 49 33 49 / 0 0 0 50
Victoria 32 47 26 44 / 0 0 0 10
Laredo 38 51 31 44 / 0 0 0 10
Alice 35 49 28 44 / 0 0 0 50
Rockport 36 48 35 49 / 0 0 0 40
Cotulla 35 50 27 42 / 0 0 0 10
Kingsville 36 50 31 48 / 0 0 0 60
Navy Corpus 38 48 40 53 / 0 0 0 60
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
TXZ229>234-239>244-246-247.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ231-232-236-
237.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Sunday for GMZ250-255-270-
275.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday
night for GMZ250-255-270-275.
Gale Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM CST Sunday for GMZ250-255-270-
275.
&&
SHORT TERM...LS/77
LONG TERM....KRS/98
AVIATION...LS/77The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
29 cold/wind chill, 5 sleet, 5 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
KALI reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KBEA reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KCRP reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KPKV reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KRAS reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KRKP reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KVCT reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KALI reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KBEA reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KCOT reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KCRP reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KLRD reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KNOG reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KPKV reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KRAS reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KRBO reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KRKP reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KVCT reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
Ice pellets/Graupel are begging to be fall in Victoria. No accumulation at this time.
Freezing drizzle being reported. No accumulations at this time.
Freezing drizzle being reported. No accumulations at this time.
Freezing drizzle being reported. No accumulations at this time.
Ice pellets coming down in Victoria, video shared on social media.
Light glaze of ice on elevated surfaces from freezing rain reported near Ingleside on the Bay.
Glaze of ice noted on elevated surfaces at NWS Corpus Christi (CRP).
Video of sleet coating on ground. Falling and starting to accumulate just north of Orange Grove TX.
Picture of sleet accumulating on cars in Rockport.
Photo of modest accumulation of sleet on a vehicle.
KBEA reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KCOT reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KCRP reported wind chills at or below 15 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KLRD reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KNOG reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KNQI reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KPKV reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KRAS reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KRKP reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KRBO reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
KVCT reported wind chills at or below 25 degC, which is our local Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, January 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1235602, 1235603, 1235604, 1235605, 1235606, 1235607, 1235608, 1235609, 1235610, 1235611, 1235612, 1235613, 1235614, 1235615, 1235616, 1235617, 1235618, 1235619, 1235582, 1235583, 1235584, 1235585, 1235586, 1235587, 1235588, 1235589, 1235592, 1235593, 1235673, 1235674, 1235675, 1235676, 1235677, 1235678, 1235679, 1235680, 1235681, 1235682, 1235683.