Name: Drought in Texas, December 23 to 31, 2025
Start: 2025-12-23T06:00
End: 2025-12-31T23:59
Location: Texas

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 4

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.

Most of South-Central Texas outside of the Hill Country received less than 50% of normal precipitation during the month. This led to worsening drought conditions in 13 counties and unchanged conditions in 11. De Witt and Lee Counties had the largest changes from Moderate (D1) Drought to Extreme (D3) Drought. Atascosa, Bastrop, Dimmit, Frio, Gonzales, Karnes, and Wilson went from Severe (D2) Drought to D3. Bandera, Blanco, Kendall, and Kinney went from D1 to D2. Bexar, Comal, and Medina remained in D3. Caldwell, Fayette, Guadalupe, Hays, Lavaca, Maverick, Travis, and Zavala stayed in D2. The Edwards Aquifer dropped 0.5 feet and was 38.2 feet below normal. Area reservoirs were below normal conservation levels. Medina Lake dropped 0.5 feet and was 84.7 feet below normal. Lake Travis dropped 0.3 feet and was 13.3 feet below normal. Canyon Lake dropped 0.3 feet and was 20.4 feet below normal. The 7-day average streamflow was much below (<10%) normal on the upper Colorado, Lavaca, Blanco, San Marcos, lower Guadalupe, Medina, and Atascosa Rivers; below (10%-24%) normal on the San Antonio, lower Nueces, and Frio Rivers; and normal (25%-75%) on the San Gabriel River. Most water providers encouraged conservation while San Antonio and Universal City imposed stage 3 restrictions and New Braunfels and Austin had stage 2. Of the counties in D2 or worse drought, Atascosa, Bastrop, Blanco, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, De Witt, Dimmit, Fayette, Frio, Guadalupe, Hays, Karnes, Medina, Wilson, and Zavala had outdoor burn bans in effect at the end of the month.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 23, 5:35 AM CST, 25 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

Fog likely this morning with highest confidence in dense fog over the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau.
Unseasonably warm weather continues through the week.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 23, 5:35 AM CST, 25 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
535 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog likely this morning with highest confidence in dense fog over
the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau.

- Unseasonably warm weather continues through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1223 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

A low-lying slug of Gulf moisture is spreading across the region
this morning, bringing atypically muggy conditions, low stratus
clouds, and fog. Fog should continue to develop and spread across
portions of South-Central Texas throughout the night into the
morning hours, with the best chances for more dense and extensive
fog bringing visibilities of a quarter mile or less immediately
along the Balcones Escarpment as the mass of moisture impinges on
the upsloping terrain. The most persistent fog and cloud cover is
favored closer to the Rio Grande and nestled in the river valleys of
the southern Edwards Plateau, with conducive specific humidity
profiles potentially allowing fog to stick around as late as 9-10 AM
before daytime mixing disperses the clouds.

Highly anomalous upper-level ridging is now firmly in place across
the Southern Plains, which should help break apart the clouds this
afternoon. Highs today are forecast to reach the upper 70s to low
80s across the area. A diffuse mid-level disturbance currently
producing shallow convective activity over eastern Mexico is
forecast to slide north into our area during the day, but sinking
motion from the broader ridge should suppress most rain chances.

We'll probably rinse and repeat the same weather for Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Ever so slightly more easterly low-level winds may
make Tuesday night not nearly as muggy, but we still expect lows
generally in the low 60s. Fog will likely develop again, with the
Balcones Escarpment and Coastal Plains favored. Highs Wednesday are
forecast to range from the mid 70s to low 80s, possibly just a notch
under today's highs as the aforementioned mid-level disturbance
brings slightly cooler temperatures aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1223 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

The strong upper level ridge responsible for our abnormally warm
weather continues to hold mid to late week, so we expect to see
continued warm and dry weather with highs in the upper 70s and low
80s, overnight lows close to 60, and dew points in the upper 50s to
60s... all unseasonably high values for late December. "Mele
Kalikimaka" will suit our local weather well for Christmas (indeed,
our forecast temperatures are not far from Hawaii's average December
weather). Persistent southerly flow will continue shaping a pattern
of low clouds and some fog developing overnight with decent clearing
late morning or early afternoon. Towards the end of the week, the
ridge starts to move a little farther east. This should allow warmer
temperatures aloft being built up over drier West Texas and northern
Mexico to move over our area, leading to highs in the low to mid 80s
Friday and Saturday. Forecast values are near near daily record high
territory and potentially the warmest portion of this current warm
stretch.

The GEFS, GEPS, and EPS ensemble suites have all trended across
multiple runs towards showing a stronger trough moving across the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest this weekend. That scenario is now
the leading outcome among ensemble members (materializing in about
60 percent of them). While distant, this would dampen the ridge over
our area and set up the opportunity for a cold front arriving around
Sunday, perhaps with some chance for rain as it encounters the
shallow humid air over our area. There is still ample uncertainty
with the strength of the front, but the latest ensemble means and
blended model consensus suggest much more seasonably cool
temperatures could be in store early next week. Given those
uncertainties, continue to monitor the forecast for possible changes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

A rather tricky visibility forecast continues this morning. Have
opted to drop mention of dense fog at SAT and SSF, but the odds of
visbys falling to 1SM or less are still quite high, especially if
winds continue to lighten, reducing turbulent mixing at the
surface. IFR/MVFR ceilings continue through midday before VFR
ceilings along with southwesterly winds develop for the afternoon.
Another round of low clouds and potentially some fog moves in
after 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              80  64  78  63 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  80  64  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     80  64  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            78  63  76  60 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           79  64  77  60 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        80  64  78  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             81  64  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        81  64  80  62 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   81  64  80  62 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       80  65  78  64 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           81  66  79  64 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ183>190-
202>206.

&&

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...MMM

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

4 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Bandera

When: December 23, 6:00 AM CST to December 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Bandera forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 29.747, -99.246 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Most of South-Central Texas outside of the Hill Country received less than 50% of normal precipitation during the month. This led to worsening drought conditions in 13 counties and unchanged conditions in 11. De Witt and Lee Counties had the largest changes from Moderate (D1) Drought to Extreme (D3) Drought. Atascosa, Bastrop, Dimmit, Frio, Gonzales, Karnes, and Wilson went from Severe (D2) Drought to D3. Bandera, Blanco, Kendall, and Kinney went from D1 to D2. Bexar, Comal, and Medina remained in D3. Caldwell, Fayette, Guadalupe, Hays, Lavaca, Maverick, Travis, and Zavala stayed in D2. The Edwards Aquifer dropped 0.5 feet and was 38.2 feet below normal. Area reservoirs were below normal conservation levels. Medina Lake dropped 0.5 feet and was 84.7 feet below normal. Lake Travis dropped 0.3 feet and was 13.3 feet below normal. Canyon Lake dropped 0.3 feet and was 20.4 feet below normal. The 7-day average streamflow was much below (<10%) normal on the upper Colorado, Lavaca, Blanco, San Marcos, lower Guadalupe, Medina, and Atascosa Rivers; below (10%-24%) normal on the San Antonio, lower Nueces, and Frio Rivers; and normal (25%-75%) on the San Gabriel River. Most water providers encouraged conservation while San Antonio and Universal City imposed stage 3 restrictions and New Braunfels and Austin had stage 2. Of the counties in D2 or worse drought, Atascosa, Bastrop, Blanco, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, De Witt, Dimmit, Fayette, Frio, Guadalupe, Hays, Karnes, Medina, Wilson, and Zavala had outdoor burn bans in effect at the end of the month.

Drought, Blanco

When: December 23, 6:00 AM CST to December 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Blanco forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 30.266, -98.400 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Most of South-Central Texas outside of the Hill Country received less than 50% of normal precipitation during the month. This led to worsening drought conditions in 13 counties and unchanged conditions in 11. De Witt and Lee Counties had the largest changes from Moderate (D1) Drought to Extreme (D3) Drought. Atascosa, Bastrop, Dimmit, Frio, Gonzales, Karnes, and Wilson went from Severe (D2) Drought to D3. Bandera, Blanco, Kendall, and Kinney went from D1 to D2. Bexar, Comal, and Medina remained in D3. Caldwell, Fayette, Guadalupe, Hays, Lavaca, Maverick, Travis, and Zavala stayed in D2. The Edwards Aquifer dropped 0.5 feet and was 38.2 feet below normal. Area reservoirs were below normal conservation levels. Medina Lake dropped 0.5 feet and was 84.7 feet below normal. Lake Travis dropped 0.3 feet and was 13.3 feet below normal. Canyon Lake dropped 0.3 feet and was 20.4 feet below normal. The 7-day average streamflow was much below (<10%) normal on the upper Colorado, Lavaca, Blanco, San Marcos, lower Guadalupe, Medina, and Atascosa Rivers; below (10%-24%) normal on the San Antonio, lower Nueces, and Frio Rivers; and normal (25%-75%) on the San Gabriel River. Most water providers encouraged conservation while San Antonio and Universal City imposed stage 3 restrictions and New Braunfels and Austin had stage 2. Of the counties in D2 or worse drought, Atascosa, Bastrop, Blanco, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, De Witt, Dimmit, Fayette, Frio, Guadalupe, Hays, Karnes, Medina, Wilson, and Zavala had outdoor burn bans in effect at the end of the month.

Drought, Kendall

When: December 23, 6:00 AM CST to December 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Kendall forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 29.945, -98.712 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Most of South-Central Texas outside of the Hill Country received less than 50% of normal precipitation during the month. This led to worsening drought conditions in 13 counties and unchanged conditions in 11. De Witt and Lee Counties had the largest changes from Moderate (D1) Drought to Extreme (D3) Drought. Atascosa, Bastrop, Dimmit, Frio, Gonzales, Karnes, and Wilson went from Severe (D2) Drought to D3. Bandera, Blanco, Kendall, and Kinney went from D1 to D2. Bexar, Comal, and Medina remained in D3. Caldwell, Fayette, Guadalupe, Hays, Lavaca, Maverick, Travis, and Zavala stayed in D2. The Edwards Aquifer dropped 0.5 feet and was 38.2 feet below normal. Area reservoirs were below normal conservation levels. Medina Lake dropped 0.5 feet and was 84.7 feet below normal. Lake Travis dropped 0.3 feet and was 13.3 feet below normal. Canyon Lake dropped 0.3 feet and was 20.4 feet below normal. The 7-day average streamflow was much below (<10%) normal on the upper Colorado, Lavaca, Blanco, San Marcos, lower Guadalupe, Medina, and Atascosa Rivers; below (10%-24%) normal on the San Antonio, lower Nueces, and Frio Rivers; and normal (25%-75%) on the San Gabriel River. Most water providers encouraged conservation while San Antonio and Universal City imposed stage 3 restrictions and New Braunfels and Austin had stage 2. Of the counties in D2 or worse drought, Atascosa, Bastrop, Blanco, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, De Witt, Dimmit, Fayette, Frio, Guadalupe, Hays, Karnes, Medina, Wilson, and Zavala had outdoor burn bans in effect at the end of the month.

Drought, Kinney

When: December 23, 6:00 AM CST to December 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Kinney forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 29.350, -100.418 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Most of South-Central Texas outside of the Hill Country received less than 50% of normal precipitation during the month. This led to worsening drought conditions in 13 counties and unchanged conditions in 11. De Witt and Lee Counties had the largest changes from Moderate (D1) Drought to Extreme (D3) Drought. Atascosa, Bastrop, Dimmit, Frio, Gonzales, Karnes, and Wilson went from Severe (D2) Drought to D3. Bandera, Blanco, Kendall, and Kinney went from D1 to D2. Bexar, Comal, and Medina remained in D3. Caldwell, Fayette, Guadalupe, Hays, Lavaca, Maverick, Travis, and Zavala stayed in D2. The Edwards Aquifer dropped 0.5 feet and was 38.2 feet below normal. Area reservoirs were below normal conservation levels. Medina Lake dropped 0.5 feet and was 84.7 feet below normal. Lake Travis dropped 0.3 feet and was 13.3 feet below normal. Canyon Lake dropped 0.3 feet and was 20.4 feet below normal. The 7-day average streamflow was much below (<10%) normal on the upper Colorado, Lavaca, Blanco, San Marcos, lower Guadalupe, Medina, and Atascosa Rivers; below (10%-24%) normal on the San Antonio, lower Nueces, and Frio Rivers; and normal (25%-75%) on the San Gabriel River. Most water providers encouraged conservation while San Antonio and Universal City imposed stage 3 restrictions and New Braunfels and Austin had stage 2. Of the counties in D2 or worse drought, Atascosa, Bastrop, Blanco, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, De Witt, Dimmit, Fayette, Frio, Guadalupe, Hays, Karnes, Medina, Wilson, and Zavala had outdoor burn bans in effect at the end of the month.

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2025 Every state in 2025 This day in weather history Warnings in Texas, December 2025

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1304665, 1304666, 1304667, 1304668.