Drought in Oklahoma, December 23 to 31, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
501 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 457 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

 - Dry with above/well above average temperatures through the
   week, including some near record or record highs.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

A modified Gulf airmass has been creeping northward for the last 24
hours with mid-50s dewpoints now reaching to the north of I-40. Some
mechanical mixing of that shallow moist layer is likely as the LLJ
cranks late tonight. Still, redevelopment of stratus across
southeast Oklahoma is likely. It also looks like we could be looking
at a localized region of fog across north central Oklahoma just to
the east of a surface low pressure.

A record-strength ridge will build in across the Southern Great
Plains today. In the face of this, the surface low will collapse.
We'll still have some southwesterly component to the surface wind
along and southeast of I-44 on the periphery of a Gulf Coast high.
That will bring the potential for record-breaking highs into
southwest and central Oklahoma and especially southeast Oklahoma
with highs ranging from the 70s to near 80. It will be a little
cooler further to the north where winds will be calmer/have a
northerly component, but the word "cooler" is only relative here.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Don't get your hopes up about any sort of diminution of the ridge
as we move into Christmas and Christmas Day. 500 mb heights on
both days will still be well into the 585+ dam range. We'll only
be spared from threatening record high temperatures on the 24th
because the current records are absurdly high to begin with. That
won't help us on the 25th when we'll get even warmer. Continued
southwest winds, sunny skies, and nearly-unheard of 700 mb
temperatures will bring our Christmas high temps into the upper
70s to mid 80s.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Instead of an abrupt shift/demise, the ridge will be forced out of
here in phases beginning on Friday. The first phase will be a
transition to a seasonably strong zonal jet across the Plains, which
unfortunately will not bring the heat wave to and end. In fact, with
widespread pressure falls across much of the High Plains, Friday
will likely be the hottest day of the entire week.

Relief, such as it is, begins on Saturday as a cold front moves into
the area. We likely won't start to feel a little more like December
until Sunday when a secondary surge of northerly winds pushes in,
though. Precipitation chances continue to look meager through the
upcoming week and really into the end of 2025.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 457 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Fog is affecting KPNC and KLAW early this morning with the most
widespread of lowest visibility is occurring in north central OK.
The fog is expected to dissipate later this morning although there
is a low chance for fog to develop again Tuesday evening/night in
parts of northern OK. However, too much uncertainty at this time
to put in TAF. S to SW winds expected across much of the area
Tuesday, except in northern OK where sfc low and weak boundary
will have an impact on wind direction and speed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  57  75  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         73  49  75  52 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  80  56  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           69  40  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     69  50  75  55 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         78  61  77  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for OKZ007-008-
     012-013.

TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...25