Texas, 2025

Drought in Texas, December 16 to 31, 2025

December 16 to 31, 2025 · NWS EWX · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

Most of South-Central Texas outside of the Hill Country received less than 50% of normal precipitation during the month. This led to worsening drought conditions in 13 counties and unchanged conditions in 11.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.

Most of South-Central Texas outside of the Hill Country received less than 50% of normal precipitation during the month. This led to worsening drought conditions in 13 counties and unchanged conditions in 11. De Witt and Lee Counties had the largest changes from Moderate (D1) Drought to Extreme (D3) Drought. Atascosa, Bastrop, Dimmit, Frio, Gonzales, Karnes, and Wilson went from Severe (D2) Drought to D3. Bandera, Blanco, Kendall, and Kinney went from D1 to D2. Bexar, Comal, and Medina remained in D3. Caldwell, Fayette, Guadalupe, Hays, Lavaca, Maverick, Travis, and Zavala stayed in D2. The Edwards Aquifer dropped 0.5 feet and was 38.2 feet below normal. Area reservoirs were below normal conservation levels. Medina Lake dropped 0.5 feet and was 84.7 feet below normal. Lake Travis dropped 0.3 feet and was 13.3 feet below normal. Canyon Lake dropped 0.3 feet and was 20.4 feet below normal. The 7-day average streamflow was much below (<10%) normal on the upper Colorado, Lavaca, Blanco, San Marcos, lower Guadalupe, Medina, and Atascosa Rivers; below (10%-24%) normal on the San Antonio, lower Nueces, and Frio Rivers; and normal (25%-75%) on the San Gabriel River. Most water providers encouraged conservation while San Antonio and Universal City imposed stage 3 restrictions and New Braunfels and Austin had stage 2. Of the counties in D2 or worse drought, Atascosa, Bastrop, Blanco, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, De Witt, Dimmit, Fayette, Frio, Guadalupe, Hays, Karnes, Medina, Wilson, and Zavala had outdoor burn bans in effect at the end of the month.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 16, 5:05 AM CST, 55 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

  • Chance of rain (20-40%) increasing for Tuesday evening into Wednesday
  • Well above normal temperatures expected by late week into the weekend
Area forecast discussion, Dec 16, 5:05 AM CST, 55 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
505 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of rain (20-40%) increasing for Tuesday evening into
  Wednesday

- Well above normal temperatures expected by late week into the
  weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1210 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

West-southwesterly flow aloft will lead to increased mid-level
moisture return ahead of an approaching upper level low over
northern Mexico on Tuesday. The latest GOES 19 imagery shows this
low over the northern Baja at this time, and it will continue to
track slightly south of eastward through northern Mexico over the
next 24 hours. This will continue to funnel in mid to upper level
Pacific moisture to our region. Additionally, southerly to
southeasterly surface flow has started to increase overnight,
leading to increasing dewpoints in response to height falls ahead of
this upper low. While rain chances are not particularly high, our
confidence in some measurable rainfall has increased over the past
24 hours. Most locations along and east of the I-35 Corridor will
stand the best chance at rain and perhaps a quick 1/4 inch of
rainfall before things shift east and out of our region Wednesday
evening. Temperatures will remain cool within the increased cloud
cover, but increasing moisture will result in warmer mornings,
primarily Wednesday morning and beyond into the long term
forecast. Expect any rain to rapidly exit the region by 00Z
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1210 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

For the most part, outside of Friday morning, the long term period
will be very warm with much above normal temperatures and dry
weather. The CPC 6-10 day outlook for temperatures and precip favors
much above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for
late December. As mentioned above, a quick cold frontal passage will
occur Thursday afternoon, and despite a warm day with highs in the
mid to upper 70s and even lower 80s along the Rio Grande, it will be
quite chilly Friday morning, as low humidity and dewpoints result in
sharp diurnal temperature swing. Lows will dip into the upper 30s to
mid 40s Friday morning before rebounding back into the upper 60s for
the afternoon. Beyond Friday, substantial warmth for late December
will continue, with little in the way of that late December chill in
the air. Expect highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Saturday through
Tuesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

At the I-35 sites, conditions deteriorate as lower levels moisten
with MVFR CIGs lowering to IFR/LIFR CIGs tonight. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
will reduce VSBYs tonight, as well. Light S-SE winds become VRBL
tonight. The poor flying conditions and light winds continue on
Wednesday.

At KDRT, MVFR CIGs prevail with SE winds of 5 to 12 KTs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              62  55  69  61 /   0  20  20   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  63  55  69  61 /   0  20  20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     61  54  69  60 /   0  30  30   0
Burnet Muni Airport            61  53  68  57 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           63  50  72  48 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        62  53  69  60 /   0  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             59  51  71  54 /  10  20  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        62  54  69  60 /   0  30  30  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   65  57  71  62 /   0  20  40   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       60  55  69  61 /  10  30  30   0
Stinson Muni Airport           61  56  69  62 /  10  30  30   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...04

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, De Witt

When
December 16, 6:00 AM CST to December 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
De Witt forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
29.082, -97.357 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Most of South-Central Texas outside of the Hill Country received less than 50% of normal precipitation during the month. This led to worsening drought conditions in 13 counties and unchanged conditions in 11. De Witt and Lee Counties had the largest changes from Moderate (D1) Drought to Extreme (D3) Drought. Atascosa, Bastrop, Dimmit, Frio, Gonzales, Karnes, and Wilson went from Severe (D2) Drought to D3. Bandera, Blanco, Kendall, and Kinney went from D1 to D2. Bexar, Comal, and Medina remained in D3. Caldwell, Fayette, Guadalupe, Hays, Lavaca, Maverick, Travis, and Zavala stayed in D2. The Edwards Aquifer dropped 0.5 feet and was 38.2 feet below normal. Area reservoirs were below normal conservation levels. Medina Lake dropped 0.5 feet and was 84.7 feet below normal. Lake Travis dropped 0.3 feet and was 13.3 feet below normal. Canyon Lake dropped 0.3 feet and was 20.4 feet below normal. The 7-day average streamflow was much below (<10%) normal on the upper Colorado, Lavaca, Blanco, San Marcos, lower Guadalupe, Medina, and Atascosa Rivers; below (10%-24%) normal on the San Antonio, lower Nueces, and Frio Rivers; and normal (25%-75%) on the San Gabriel River. Most water providers encouraged conservation while San Antonio and Universal City imposed stage 3 restrictions and New Braunfels and Austin had stage 2. Of the counties in D2 or worse drought, Atascosa, Bastrop, Blanco, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, De Witt, Dimmit, Fayette, Frio, Guadalupe, Hays, Karnes, Medina, Wilson, and Zavala had outdoor burn bans in effect at the end of the month.

Drought, Lee

When
December 16, 6:00 AM CST to December 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Lee forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
30.311, -96.966 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Most of South-Central Texas outside of the Hill Country received less than 50% of normal precipitation during the month. This led to worsening drought conditions in 13 counties and unchanged conditions in 11. De Witt and Lee Counties had the largest changes from Moderate (D1) Drought to Extreme (D3) Drought. Atascosa, Bastrop, Dimmit, Frio, Gonzales, Karnes, and Wilson went from Severe (D2) Drought to D3. Bandera, Blanco, Kendall, and Kinney went from D1 to D2. Bexar, Comal, and Medina remained in D3. Caldwell, Fayette, Guadalupe, Hays, Lavaca, Maverick, Travis, and Zavala stayed in D2. The Edwards Aquifer dropped 0.5 feet and was 38.2 feet below normal. Area reservoirs were below normal conservation levels. Medina Lake dropped 0.5 feet and was 84.7 feet below normal. Lake Travis dropped 0.3 feet and was 13.3 feet below normal. Canyon Lake dropped 0.3 feet and was 20.4 feet below normal. The 7-day average streamflow was much below (<10%) normal on the upper Colorado, Lavaca, Blanco, San Marcos, lower Guadalupe, Medina, and Atascosa Rivers; below (10%-24%) normal on the San Antonio, lower Nueces, and Frio Rivers; and normal (25%-75%) on the San Gabriel River. Most water providers encouraged conservation while San Antonio and Universal City imposed stage 3 restrictions and New Braunfels and Austin had stage 2. Of the counties in D2 or worse drought, Atascosa, Bastrop, Blanco, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, De Witt, Dimmit, Fayette, Frio, Guadalupe, Hays, Karnes, Medina, Wilson, and Zavala had outdoor burn bans in effect at the end of the month.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, December 2025

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1304663, 1304664.