Drought in Texas, December 1 to 31, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1056 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1053 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

* Roller-coaster temperature pattern expected to take place through
  next weekend.

* Another cold front arrives Thursday night into Friday with showers
  and thunderstorms developing Thursday through Friday.

* Adverse to hazardous marine conditions to persist through at
  least Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1053 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Progressive/changeable weather pattern featuring multiple temperature
swings, and another cool front that will bring more widespread
chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday is expected
to take place during the forecast period or through next Monday.
Mainly cloudy skies will dominate the week ahead.

Through tonight, blustery northerly winds 10-20 mph with gusts as
high as 30 mph will help to usher in the coldest airmass of the
season (since last February). Despite an abundance of cloud cover in
place to help with insolation, a full cold air advection regime in
place over the region will result in overnight low temperatures
falling into the 40s most places (50s along mid to lower valley and
the coast). Latest radar scans show most of the rain showers over
the Gulf Waters, but through tonight, there could be some lingering
vicinity showers/sprinkles around, especially areas near the coast.
Mist is also possible to due to residual low level moisture
underneath an inversion. Again, this is especially true for areas
near the coast. Otherwise, expect for a cool, rain-free, blustery
night ahead.

Monday through Tuesday night, it still will remain cool though there
will be a gradual moderation in temperatures. On Monday daytime
highs will struggle to make it out of the 50s most places. On
Tuesday, daytime highs will struggle to make it out of the 60s.
Monday night, overnight lows will fall into the 40s across much of
Deep South Texas (50s along the RGV). Tuesday night, lows will be in
the 50s most places. There could be a few lingering
sprinkles/showers around on Monday, but most areas will remain rain-
free under mostly cloudy skies.

Warmer than normal temperatures arrive on Wednesday and continue
into Thursday as a return flow develops out of the south-southeast.
High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will climb into the
lower 80s along the RGV and 70s across the Northern Ranchlands.
Wednesday night, overnight lows will be in the 60s most places
(lower 70s across parts of the RGV).

Thursday night into Friday, forecast models/ensembles are depicting
another cool front that is set to sweep through Deep South Texas and
the RGV. Ahead of the cool fropa, some overrunning combined with
increased sfc convergence and instability will result in the
development of showers and thunderstorms across Deep South Texas and
the RGV Thursday into Thursday night. Coverage is expected to be
more widespread and showers/thunderstorms more robust than what
occurred earlier today. Lingering showers are possible on Friday
through Friday night behind the cool fropa. Currently , we have low
to medium (20-60%) chance PoPs Thursday-Thursday night with the
higher probabilities closer to the coast. Even higher (70-80%) PoPs
are expected over the Gulf Waters. Friday-Friday night, we have low
to medium (20-40%) chance PoPs for lingering, post-frontal
showers with the highest chances again being near the coast.

Daytime highs on Friday is progged to be in the 60s most places
(lower 70s across parts of the RGV). Temperatures moderate/warm once
again Saturday and Sunday. Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s most
places and on Tuesday 80s most places. By Monday, highs are expected
to be in the 70s most places. Thursday night through Monday night,
lows will be in the 50s most places (lower 60s along the RGV
Saturday night through Monday night).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1053 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Through 06z Tuesday....Latest sfc, satellite, and radar observations
depicted an OVC deck of MVFR-IFR stratus clouds with ceilings
ranging between 700-2,300 feet AGL with unrestricted visibilities,
and VCSH nearby.

MVFR-IFR ceilings are expected to prevail through the 06z TAF
period with cloud coverage and ceilings improving marginally
towards the end of the TAF period. VCSH are expected to persist
through through tonight before waning on Monday.

Blustery north-northwest winds are expected to prevail through
tonight with speeds between 10-15 kts or so and gusts between 20-25
kts or so. On Monday, northwest winds will weaken with speeds
between 5-12 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1053 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Adverse to hazardous marine conditions are expected to persist
through Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory has been extended to noon
CST Monday. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions will
then take place on Monday. However, another Small Craft Advisory
may be needed Monday night into Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday, marine
conditons are expected to improve with light to moderate seas and
light to moderate winds and seas persisting through Thursday. A
cold front pushes through Thursday night into Friday and that
could result in more adverse marine conditions developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  52  60  53 /  70  50  20  30
HARLINGEN               75  49  58  49 /  50  40  20  20
MCALLEN                 75  51  59  51 /  30  30  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         72  48  60  50 /  10  40  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      77  58  64  60 /  80  70  30  40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  51  60  53 /  70  50  30  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma
LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma