Drought in Maine, December 1 to 31, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
152 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to push towards the area this evening
with rain and snow showers ahead of it. We will clear out only
briefly before the next storm begins to move in early Tuesday.
This storm will spread snow over the area and bring the first
widespread accumulation to most areas south of the mountains.
Moderate to heavy snow is likely to affect the morning and
evening commutes on Tuesday before snow comes to an end. The
storm track may still change and shift the heaviest snow amounts
around, but most locations are expected to see some
accumulations. Once that storm exits the region Wednesday, the
rest of the week will be cool and breezy with mountain snow
showers lingering.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* On and off snow will become more consistent late this
  afternoon for the mountains. Road conditions will fluctuate
  with elevation across the north as snow will tend to
  accumulate better on the hills and mountains.

Low pressure exiting the Great Lakes will translate northeast
this afternoon, bringing an occluded front along the US/CAN
border. Off of this, a brief warm sector and followup cold front
will pass overhead this evening.

Expect precipitation to be most continuous mid to late
afternoon as the best forcing pushes through. It has taken
awhile for the atmospheric column to saturate so far today, thus
keeping precip at the surface intermittent. While snow will
change to rain across the interior, precip likely remains snow
in the mountains and northern valleys through the event. No
changes in expected accumulation through tonight here, with
greater accums tied to elevation. Dry air will then filter in
aloft west to east later this evening. This will end
precipitation as winds shift west. NW winds in the mountains
will keep mention of snow via upslope processes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Breezy and dry day Monday as high pressure pushes into the
Northeast and temperatures generally fall through the day.
Daytime highs push into the 30s to around 40 along the coast in
the morning. These then look to tumble through the afternoon as
CAA rushes in on NW winds. These will make it feel cooler...like
the 20s along the coast and interior, with teens and single
digits in the mountains.

Winds will tend to become light in the evening, but cold air
mass will just be getting overhead. Overnight lows in the single
digits across the mountains with teens through the interior are
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message: First significant winter storm of the season is
likely Tue into early Wed. Some additional track changes are
expected...but many parts of the forecast area are under threat
of at least 4 to 8 inches of snow.

Impacts:

*Hazardous travel conditions are anticipated both the Tue
 morning and evening commutes due to falling and accumulating
 snow. The first inch is looking more likely by Tue
 morning...which when many snow related vehicle accidents occur.

*Snowfall may be heavy at times with visibility at or below one
 quarter mile. In addition snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour are
 possible.

Forecast Details: A strong and rapidly deepening cyclone will
pass south of New England and skirt the edges of the Gulf of
Maine on Tue. This storm will bring the forecast area its first
widespread accumulating snowfall of the season.

There has not been much change in modeling since
yesterday...with perhaps a slight narrowing of forecast
envelope. That still leaves plenty of uncertainty in track given
the thermodynamic set up.

At a high level overview...models have a strong jet streak
lifting over the Northeast...placing much of the area in the
right entrance region favored for lift. The global suite places
that jet streak over Maine...while the more aggressive NAM is
over the St. Lawrence Valley. These differences carry down thru
the mid levels where the NAM has a closing H7 low over the
forecast area and the GFS/ECMWF remain open waves farther south.
Likewise the -4 C isotherm...a proxy for heaviest snow
location...stays near the coast for a GFS/ECMWF solution but
bisects the forecast area on the NAM.

One consistent feature is that model guidance still favors a
laterally quasi-stationary mesoscale band set up. This is the
primary reason why confidence remains lower than normal. While
it will likely snow a lot underneath that band...snowfall
amounts will drop off quickly to the northwest...and also
southeast where marine influence will be higher. A shift of 25
miles or more at this forecast range is not unreasonable. This
also means that a NAM-like scenario remains a possibility for
locations under the mesoscale band. The 30.12z NAM has over 2
inch QPF in a stripe thru the center of the forecast area. I
think this is overblown...but the training nature of the banding
and what could be intense lift is certainly enough to make a
stripe of a foot or more a possibility. However to keep snow
amounts within reason...I opted for a 50/50 blend between the
mean and 50th percentile QPF.

Based on ensemble guidance and associated forcing features...I
am favoring southern NH and the western Maine coast for the
highest totals. A winter storm watch has been issued for the
entire area south of the mtns. This is a bit broad due to the
uncertainty but also because it will be the first real
accumulation for nearly all of those areas and occuring during
busier travel times.

The snow will wind down quickly early Wed morning...with
northwest winds taking over and upslope snow showers developing.
That will generally continue thru the remainder of the work
week...with another stronger trof arriving over the weekend into
early next week. The rest of the forecast beyond Tue/Tue night
is NBM due to the focus on the storm.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Ceilings trend widespread MVFR this afternoon.
Brief period of IFR slides west to east across terminals into
this evening, but may arrive as SCT...becoming BKN at times.
Mountain downslope helps keep HIE MVFR/VFR unless vis in snow
hinders this evening. RA will be dominant precip type south and
east of LEB/IZG/WVL this evening, with SN to the north. Expect
general improving trend after 00z, with VFR at most terminals
outside of the mtns by 9z. HIE remains in upslope snow into
early Monday morning.

Long Term...Conditions rapidly deteriorate Tue morning as snow
moves into the area. Widespread IFR to LIFR is expected for most
of the TAF sites. Storm track remains lower confidence at this
time and could dictate which TAF sites see IFR or lower
conditions. Farther north and HIE would experience more
IFR...but rain may allow some MVFR conditions to creep into
coastal terminals like PSM...PWM...and RKD. Conversely a farther
south track may keep HIE MVFR or VFR while bringing a longer
period of IFR or lower to coastal sites. Once the storm pulls
away and winds turn northwesterly VFR returns quickly to places
south of the mtns...while HIE will likely see a continuation of
upslope clouds and snow showers with local MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...No significant changes to forecast with
today/tonight's system. Window of gales will be shortlived as
front passes over this evening. These slacken towards midnight,
but will tend to have some gusts to Gale on the outer zones
through tonight and into Mon as NW winds increase behind the
system.

Long Term...Strong and deepening low pressure will pass near the
entrance to the Gulf of Maine on Tue into Wed morning.
Strengthening northeast winds and building seas are anticipated.
Depending on the storm track gale force wind gusts are possible
for the outer waters...especially Tue night into Wed. Winds will
remain gusty on the waters thru the end of the work week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for MEZ012>014-018>028-033.
NH...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for NHZ004>015.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ150-152.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this
     evening for ANZ151.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ153-154.

&&

NEAR TERM...Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Legro
AVIATION...Cornwell/Legro
MARINE...Cornwell/Legro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
130 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

MEZ012>014-018>028-033-NHZ004>015-011830-
Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-
Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-
Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-
Interior Cumberland Highlands-Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-
Southern Carroll-Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-Cheshire-
Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham-
Western And Central Hillsborough-
130 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,
southwest Maine, western Maine, New Hampshire, central New
Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MEZ007>009-NHZ001>003-011830-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Northern Coos-
Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-
130 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Maine, western
Maine and northern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A storm will pass offshore Tuesday into Wednesday and spread snow
over much of the forecast area. At this time confidence is lower on
snowfall totals in the mountains as these will be highly dependent
on the track of the storm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ150-152-011830-
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM-
130 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

A strengthening nor'easter is forecast to pass along the edge of the
Gulf of Maine Tuesday night. Another period of gale force gusts is
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ151-011830-
Penobscot Bay-
130 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A strengthening nor'easter is forecast to pass along the edge of the
Gulf of Maine Tuesday night. Another period of gale force gusts is
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ153-154-011830-
Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
130 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A strengthening nor'easter is forecast to pass along the edge of the
Gulf of Maine Tuesday night. Another period of gale force gusts is
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
1141 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

MEZ012>014-018>028-033-NHZ006-008>010-012>015-010900-
Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-
Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-
Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-
Coastal Waldo-Interior Cumberland Highlands-Southern Carroll-
Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-Eastern Hillsborough-
Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham-
Western And Central Hillsborough-
Including the cities of Bethel, Bryant Pond, Hanover,
Locke Mills, Milton, Newry, Rumford, Norway, Fryeburg, Oxford,
Farmington, New Sharon, New Vineyard, Temple, Wilton,
Chesterville, Jay, Athens, Cornville, Skowhegan, Palmyra,
Pittsfield, Embden, Madison, Hollis, Alfred, Lebanon, Sanford,
Goodwins Mills, Buxton, Limington, Berwick, New Gloucester, Gray,
North Windham, Gorham, Greene, Lewiston, Sabattus, Wales, Minot,
Turner, Auburn, Livermore Falls, Augusta, Sidney, Windsor,
Vassalboro, Waterville, China, Palermo, Brooks, Jackson, Knox,
Liberty, Montville, Morrill, Waldo, Winterport, Unity, Biddeford,
Saco, Old Orchard Beach, Kittery, Portland, Cape Elizabeth,
South Portland, Westbrook, Yarmouth, Brunswick, Arrowsic, Bath,
Phippsburg, Bowdoinham, Topsham, Bowdoin, Whitefield, Dresden,
Alna, Bremen, Bristol, Damariscotta, Newcastle, Boothbay Harbor,
Wiscasset, Waldoboro, Owls Head, Rockland, Appleton, Camden,
Hope, Rockport, Thomaston, Belfast, Northport, Searsmont,
Lincolnville, Bridgton, Harrison, Naples, Wakefield, Bridgewater,
Brookfield, Ossipee, Tuftonboro, Wolfeboro, Moultonborough,
Boscawen, Canterbury, Concord, Dunbarton, Loudon, Hooksett,
Laconia, Gilford, Meredith, Barrington, Rochester, Dover,
Rollinsford, Somersworth, Durham, Madbury, Manchester, Pelham,
Nashua, Salem, Atkinson, Newton, Plaistow, Chester, Derry,
Hampstead, Exeter, Greenland, Portsmouth, Rye, Hampton,
Hampton Falls, North Hampton, Seabrook, Amherst, Milford,
Mont Vernon, Goffstown, Peterborough, Sharon, and Weare
1141 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

...SLIPPERY SPOTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...

Clearing skies, light winds, and temperatures slowly dropping
into the lower to mid 30s in is allowing for the formation of icy
spots. Drivers and pedestrians are urged to use caution while out
and about overnight as icy spots can creep up unexpectedly.

MLE