Scattered thunderstorms developed across Middle Tennessee during the afternoon and evening of May 27, 2025. While these thunderstorms were non-severe, gusty winds from a thunderstorm in Grundy County downed a few trees.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed across Middle Tennessee during the afternoon and evening of May 27, 2025. While these thunderstorms were non-severe, gusty winds from a thunderstorm in Grundy County downed a few trees.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 27, 11:44 AM CST, 3 hours 59 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1244 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1221 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 - Widespread rain is expected through this evening. Flash flooding will be a threat with heavy rain. Remain weather aware! - Scattered showers and thunderstorms continues Wednesday through Friday. - Severe weather threat is low. If any stronger storms develop, the main hazard will be wind. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1032 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 As a shortwave tracks over the region, a warm front has been lifting north this morning. As it's done so, rain has largely tapered off this morning with even some sun peeking through the clouds. However, as this shortwave continues to track through the area along with a cold front, rain coverage will increase once again this afternoon through the evening hours. There is an abundant amount of moisture out there with the PWAT on this morning's sounding coming in at 1.62" - above the 90th percentile for the date, but falling short of a maximum record. As such, our main concern through the remainder of the day is heavy rain with PWATs remaining around 1.50-1.75 inches. Latest HRRR runs are highlighting our eastern half for the most rainfall, particularly along and near the Plateau, as the front stalls in the area overnight which keeps rain ongoing. Additional rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected, but there is a 20-40% that a few locations manage to pick up near 3 inches, especially under any thunderstorm where rainfall rates will be higher. As far as severe weather, that threat remains very low. CAMs show low instability (500-800 J/kg) managing to build into the area this afternoon. Low-level lapse rates are steep, but the rest of any forecast soundings are unfavorable with poor shear and poor mid-level lapse rates. Won't be surprised if a thunderstorm this afternoon manages to produce gusty winds, but severe weather is not expected. While showers and storms will be slow to diminish across the east tonight, the threat for heavy rain should come to an end by midnight. Lingering showers will continue into Wednesday, especially across the east which will be in closer proximity to the departing shortwave. But rainfall totals are expected to be lighter Wednesday with only a 10-15% chance totals reach a quarter of an inch. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1032 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 A large trough swings through the Midwest Thursday and into Friday. Latest model runs show this low digging farther south than previously advertised which in turn as increased our rain chances to 50-70% through the end of the work week. Forecast rain totals have also trended up to an additional 0.50 to 1 inch Thursday through Friday. Which by itself would not a concern, but with it falling on already saturated soils, a low flooding risk may persist through the end of the week. Fortunately, don't see much of a severe risk at this time with little instability and saturated forecast soundings. A front finally moves through the area late Friday, ending this rainy pattern...at least for one day. Northwest flow sets up overhead as ridging builds to our west. This leads to a return to the 80s for the weekend. But models are picking up on an embedded shortwave that brings a low chance for more rain on Sunday. But as we head into early next week, the ridge axis moves farther east which brings drier conditions and temperatures rising into the mid and upper-80s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Convection is expected to re-develop later this afternoon and into the early evening as a surface boundary eases its way across Middle Tennessee. The bulk of the activity will stay focused east of I-65. Low ceilings and some fog will affect the terminals overnight and into tomorrow before we start to see some sunshine by late morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 64 81 65 80 / 30 20 30 60 Clarksville 62 79 62 79 / 10 10 20 50 Crossville 60 74 59 73 / 80 50 30 70 Columbia 64 79 62 78 / 30 20 50 70 Cookeville 62 75 60 75 / 60 40 30 60 Jamestown 61 75 57 75 / 70 50 30 60 Lawrenceburg 64 79 62 77 / 40 20 50 70 Murfreesboro 64 80 62 79 / 50 30 40 60 Waverly 61 79 61 78 / 10 10 30 60 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Rose
The Northeast Alabama radar (KHTX), 48 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:43 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Strong thunderstorm winds downed a few trees on Chevy Road just south of Clouse Hill Road north of Monteagle. Damage is a rough estimate.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1248995.