Hail in Tennessee, March 23, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1232 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

- Rain and thunderstorms today and tonight. Some storms could be
  severe during the late afternoon and evening, posing a threat
  for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a low tornado threat.

- Elevated fire danger for areas east of I-65 this afternoon due
  to low RH values and gusty winds. Outdoor burning is highly
  discouraged.

- Fair weather returns tomorrow and persists for much of the
  upcoming week, temperatures run above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1102 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

There's been plenty of sun across Middle Tennessee this morning
but showers have moved into the northwest over the last hour.
After this wave of showers and storms in the northwest we'll have
break before the main wave of showers and storms this afternoon
and evening. We are waiting for the low level moisture return to
ramp up as dew points across the area are still sitting in the
upper 20s to mid 30s. High res guidance continues to show a surge
of moisture ahead of the cold front that will approach this
afternoon. Dew points are forecast to approach the low to mid 50s
west of I-65 by mid afternoon. This along with mid level lapse
rates around 7-7.5 C/km will yield CAPE values around 500-800 J/kg
during the mid to late afternoon. Shower and storm activity will
increase ahead of the front starting around 21z. Wind profiles
will be characterized by a veered hodograph but still some
directional and speed shear. Effective bulk shear will be more
than ample to support organized updrafts and the low level
helicity values do support a low end tornado threat especially if
a cell can remain discrete for a time. The main threat will be
damaging winds and with the steep mid level lapse rates, large
hail. The general time for the window of greatest severe threat
will start around 4 PM in the west with storms moving through
Nashville initially around 6 PM and the final activity clearing
around 10 PM. The severe threat should decrease after 9 PM
areawide as instability drops off. The overall rainfall from this
event will vary depending on who gets the heaviest cells but the
general thinking for QPF is around a little less than half an
inch to around an inch.

The front will clear the area by Monday morning with high pressure
building in from the west and northwest flow aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1102 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Northwest flow aloft continues to start the extended period with a
weak clipper moving through Kentucky on Tuesday. There is a very low
chance of a shower along the northern plateau but the majority of
the area will be dry. High pressure builds back in on Wednesday with
the northwesterly flow aloft persisting. Upper ridging will build in
on Friday which looks like the warmest day of the week with highs in
the upper 70s to perhaps 80 degrees. Rain chances increase later on
Saturday as a weakening wave lifts through Texas towards the
Midwest. A stronger system will bring higher rain and storm chances
on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

A cluster of pre-frontal showers is currently tracking across
northern Middle Tennessee. Some of the winds ahead of these cells
are quite gusty, but the enhanced velocities are relatively
short-lived. Meanwhile, a cold front continues to approach the
mid state from the northwest. We expect a line of storms to move
through with the front during the late afternoon and evening, and
we have used the latest HRRR output to time the storms' passage
across the area. The good news is that once the surface boundary
comes through and the storms exit the region, ceilings should
quickly improve to VFR. Look for gusty surface winds until the
fropa occurs, then winds will diminish while shifting to the NW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      47  68  47  73 /  80   0   0   0
Clarksville    44  67  47  70 /  50   0   0   0
Crossville     44  62  40  65 / 100   0   0  10
Columbia       47  68  45  73 /  90   0   0   0
Cookeville     45  63  42  66 / 100   0  10  10
Jamestown      44  62  41  65 / 100   0  10  20
Lawrenceburg   48  67  45  73 /  90   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   47  67  44  72 /  90   0   0   0
Waverly        44  67  47  71 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Rose