Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, March 23, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
238 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Key Message:

- Strong to severe storms possible this evening into early Monday
morning for portions of the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor.

A cold front is currently moving through northwest Texas and will
continue to move southward through this afternoon and evening. As
the front moves into portions of the Hill Country shortly after peak
heating, we should see isolated to scattered showers and storms
develop along the front. A weak upper disturbance and decent
instability should allow for a few strong to severe storms to
develop along the front. Recent updates from the SPC Day 1
convective outlook now place most of Williamson, Travis, Bastrop and
Lee counties in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather.
Farther south and west, the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
storms extends across most of the Hill Country into the I-35
corridor near New Braunfels, then eastward to near La Grange. The
main severe weather concern will be large hail, along with damaging
winds. The main time window of concern is roughly 6 PM this evening
until 3 AM Monday morning.

Not much cooling is anticipated behind the above mentioned cold
front on Monday as daytime highs are still expected to reach the 80s
for most locations. We did keep a low chance for late afternoon
showers and storms in the forecast for areas right along the Rio
Grande. At least one or two of the hi-res models show the
possibility of an isolated storm or two over portions of the Hill
Country into the southern Edwards Plateau Monday afternoon and
evening as a warm front lifts northward. For now we will keep the
forecast dry as both large scale forcing and atmospheric winds are
fairly weak. We will continue to monitor and adjust the forecast as
needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Key Messages:

-Hot & dry Tuesday with some mild fire weather concerns

-Best chance of rain in several weeks from late Wednesday through
 Friday, with widespread 1+ inch rains possible

The hottest day of the next week is Tuesday as a large western CONUS
upper ridge extends into TX. Undercutting this upper ridge is a broad
upper disturbance moving east along the US/Mexico border toward TX.
The combined effects of these systems brings not only a hot day but
possibly a breezy one as southerly surface winds increase ahead of
the disturbance. The winds are not expected to particularly strong
like the ones from last week's multi-day fire weather patterns, but
there could be just enough for an afternoon of locally elevated fire
weather conditions. Thankfully, this is is about it for the fire
weather issues for awhile as a near widespread rain event is expected
for Wednesday through Friday.

Initially moisture levels will be limited for daytime Wednesday, so the
initial rain chances will be mostly west of Hwy 281 to the Rio Grande
and fed mostly by elevated Pacific instability and moisture. The
moist and unstable layer becomes more rooted toward the surface by
Thursday morning, and a solid conveyor belt of low to mid level
moisture should bring many hours of good rain opportunity for much of
the area. The latest GFS still shows a scenario of multiple waves of
convection moving through the broad upper trough over TX, but the
amounts have come down to earth compared to what was seen in the 12Z
3/22 run. We still believe that there will be a larger embedded
complex that will provide the bulk of the rain as opposed to multiple
waves, but we'd love to be wrong! Assuming the more conservative
scenario, a solid swath of 1-2 inch rains should temporarily silence
the fire weather concerns for a week or two and usher in a more
definitive green-up that has eluded much our area so far this spring.

Some secondary rounds of showers and storms are depicted as late as
the wee hours Saturday morning, but a mostly dry and mild weekend is
projected. There is a quick-hitting wave of convection possible in
Central Texas Sunday afternoon according to the GFS, but the ECM and
CMC do not reflect this.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

IFR/MVFR CIGs on S to SE winds lift to SCT VFR by early afternoon. A
front brings ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA this evening into night and have
PROB30s at the I-35 sites. Winds shift to N to NE with the frontal
passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              59  85  63  91 /  50   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  58  85  59  90 /  50   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     61  87  61  92 /  40   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            56  83  58  91 /  30   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           65  89  64  93 /  10  20  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        57  84  59  91 /  40   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             61  89  60  92 /  20  10  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        59  85  60  90 /  50   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   62  83  63  88 /  40  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       62  86  63  91 /  40   0  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           64  88  63  92 /  30   0  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...18
Aviation...Platt

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
518 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

TXZ171-188-232300-
Gillespie TX-Llano TX-
518 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Gillespie and southwestern Llano Counties through 600 PM CDT...

At 518 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Crabapple, or 8 miles northwest of Fredericksburg,
moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fredericksburg, Cherry Spring, Prairie Mountain, Enchanted Rock State
Natural Area, Eckert, Crabapple, Willow City, and Oxford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3063 9860 3036 9859 3025 9894 3043 9908
      3050 9900 3050 9897 3053 9896 3063 9884
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 237DEG 9KT 3038 9894

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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