Scattered thunderstorms impacted Middle Tennessee during the afternoon and evening hours of July 17, 2025. A thunderstorm in Stewart County downed a few trees in the area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms impacted Middle Tennessee during the afternoon and evening hours of July 17, 2025. A thunderstorm in Stewart County downed a few trees in the area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 17, 6:05 PM CST, 1 hour 46 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 705 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 702 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - A Heat Advisory is in effect for this afternoon as Heat Index values are expected to climb over 105F in several locations west of the Cumberland Plateau. - Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will continue for the foreseeable future. - The risk of severe weather is low, however, heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be possible with any storm. && .UPDATE... Issued at 702 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 A few scattered thunderstorms have popped up across the area but the more widespread activity has remained well to our north over KY. Additional thunderstorms may pop up over the next few hours as outflows continue to move across the area. Heavy rain is going to be the primary threat with any thunderstorms and localized flash flooding will be possible with them. Can't rule out some gusty winds but overall that threat is very low. Mainly dry overnight and humid with lows in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tonight) Issued at 1114 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Hot. Muggy. Dare I say, disgusting? Meh. For me anyway. At 10 am, BNA it was 87 with mid 70s dew points. If we use the 10 at 10 method we're on our way to solidly verifying this Heat Advisory today. It runs until 7 pm. This really should be the main story of the day. I'm looking over these rain chances today and if you go off the CAMs, the heat really is the only story as they depict the bulk of rain chances remaining off to the north in Kentucky. However, looking at surface obs across the area and visible satellite, there's an evident boundary laying across the mid-state just north of I-40. In fact, we're already starting to see some showers bloom on the northern Plateau along this boundary. Without much model guidance suggesting convective development in this vicinity this afternoon, I don't have much to go off of. WPC does have our northern tier of counties highlighted for excessive rainfall as part of a larger swath of a Slight Risk off to our north. I have to imagine the thinking is outflows coming off storms to our north and sparking convection along and north of I-40 and this seems to be the most logical conclusion as the energy associated with this upper trough remain off to our north. With the lack of confidence in where storms will initiate this afternoon, I'm not inclined to do anything widespread like a Flash Flood Watch, however, interests north of I-40 will want to closely monitor any storms this afternoon. PWs of close to 2 inches (1.9" from the 12Z OHX sounding) could support rain rates up to 3 inches/hour. That said, the effects of storms like this should be very localized and it's a really long-winded way of saying there's a low to medium chance of diurnal storms (best chance north of I-40) with heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds today. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1114 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 As we move into tomorrow and the upcoming weekend, the story doesn't change much. Diurnal showers and storms will plague the forecast. Afternoon highs shouldn't be *quite* as warm, which should drop us out of Heat Advisory territory, but Heat Index values should remain 100-105F west of the Plateau each day. Extended guidance keeps low to medium daily rain chances in the forecast, however as we roll into the middle of next week, signals for afternoon highs climbing into the mid to upper 90s persist. This is due to an upper ridge exerting itself over the mid-south. Storm coverage probably won't be quite as high, if this ends up verifying, but isolated storms can't be ruled out with the typical summertime concerns of gusty winds, lightning and copious rainfall. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 VFR conditions continue for the period, with the exception of in TS conditions. TS/SH will be possible into the early evening hours at all TAF sites. Winds will go light and variable and stay that way through about 18z Fri. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 76 93 76 92 / 60 60 20 60 Clarksville 76 91 75 90 / 40 50 20 50 Crossville 69 86 69 84 / 40 70 30 70 Columbia 74 91 74 90 / 20 50 20 60 Cookeville 72 88 72 85 / 60 60 30 70 Jamestown 71 86 70 84 / 60 70 30 80 Lawrenceburg 73 90 73 89 / 20 60 20 60 Murfreesboro 74 92 74 91 / 30 60 20 60 Waverly 74 90 74 89 / 40 50 20 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && UPDATE.......Mueller SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Holley
The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 60 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:51 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A strong thunderstorm moving through the Dover area downed a few trees at a campground in the area. Size of the trees downed is unknown. Damages are a rough estimate.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1266641.