6 miles east-northeast of Parachute, Colorado.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
The Cottonwood Flat Fire started in mid July due to a lightning strike 1.6 miles east-northeast of Parachute, Colorado.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 17, 1:39 PM MST, 2 hours earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 239 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to widespread thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon will be capable of producing strong winds, frequent lightning, hail, and periods of heavy rain. - Conditions dry out early next week increasing the potential for elevated fire weather conditions. - Smoke will continue to ebb and flow around the forecast area this weekend with multiple large wildfires burning in eastern Utah and western Colorado. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 227 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025 With the moisture plume currently centered over southeast Utah and southwest Colorado progged to lift to the north overnight, shower chances will continue tonight along the leading edge of the moisture transport gradient. Cloud cover will also persist overnight, mainly along and north of I-70. The biggest forecast question is how much cloud lingers into Friday morning, especially across the northern half of the forecast area. The hi-res models indicate that these clouds will hang on, limiting the amount of daytime heating at the surface. South of I-70 and in the north if enough clearing is achieved, CAPE values are expected to build to 500-1000 J/kg in the afternoon leading to the potential for some stronger storms. With a jet overhead, shear also looks higher than usual. But with the highest shear draped across the northern half of the forecast area and the highest CAPE in the southern half, we may not get the alignment needed for strong, sustained storms. Strong pulse storms are still likely south of I-70 with the ability to produce half inch to quarter-size hail and strong winds. Flash flooding cannot be ruled out if high rain rates develop over burn scars and steep, hydrophobic terrain, but it is not a primary threat for much of the region given the dry antecedent conditions. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 227 PM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025 On Saturday not much changes to the overall pattern with high pressure still over the Southern Plains and a weak low over southern Cal. One thing notable is that slightly drier air will advect in from the southwest. Although enough moisture remains in place to support afternoon convection especially over the higher terrain. Storms may be capable of producing brief downpours, gusty winds and small hail. The same conditions will be in place for Sunday so expect similar afternoon convection on the higher terrain. Monday looks to be even slightly drier so there should be a decrease in the coverage of showers and storms. This will increase the potential for stronger outflow wind gusts than previous days. By Tuesday a low pressure system moves into the Pacific Northwest with the ridge anchored over the southern US. This is a favorable pattern for moisture advection from the south. In fact, the models are hinting at another moisture surge on Tuesday. This signal is showing up in a few operational models and ensemble means as well. Some of that energy may stay in the PacNW keeping us in southerly flow. Although the models show fairly dry air just to our west and southwest, and that could easily come our way mid week. If that happens the chances for showers and storms will decrease. That seems to be the more likely scenario late next week. With that we would see a slight increase in the temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1118 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon and evening. Primary threats from the thunderstorms is lightning and outflow gusts to 45 kts. Expect generally light winds today becoming southwest with gusts to 20 kts and dropping off to light drainage winds around sunset. There are slight chances for showers and storms overnight. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...KAA LONG TERM...KJS AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 423 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-181030- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-Upper Gunnison River Valley- Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-Northwest San Juan Mountains- Southwest San Juan Mountains-Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 423 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Colorado, southwest Colorado, west central Colorado, east central Utah, northeast Utah and southeast Utah. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Increasing moisture today brings widespread showers and thunderstorms across the southern mountains with coverage more scattered on the higher terrain farther north this afternoon and evening with localized heavy rain and gusty outflows possible in storms. Wildfire smoke remains visible across much of the CWA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. The moisture in the region keeps scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms on terrain in the forecast through Saturday with localized heavy rain possible in some of these storms. Conditions dry out Sunday into early next week with a return of near critical fire weather conditions. Wildfire smoke will remain visible for much of eastern Utah and western Colorado. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight, however spotters are encouraged to report excessive wind or observed wind related damage, and to relay rainfall amounts or any observed flooding to the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Cottonwood Flat Fire started in mid July due to a lightning strike 1.6 miles east-northeast of Parachute, Colorado. The fire grew to 311 acres before it was contained in late July. The estimated cost to date was $2,800,000.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1285482.