Damaging Wind in South Carolina, June 9, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
618 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms crosses our area from
Georgia tonight then moves out of our area early Tuesday. Weak and
mostly dry high pressure controls our weather Tuesday and Wednesday.
A Bermuda high creates a moist southerly flow late this week and
into next week with scattered to numerous showers and storms
affecting our region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 611 PM: Thus far, convection has remained...unimpressive.
Buoyancy has continued to impose a limit on convective potential,
with some isolated cells developing in the western half of the
forecast area, but generally too little forcing for initiation,
and too little CAPE for strong updrafts.  The best chances will
continue to be around the edges of the forecast area, where the
buoyance will approach 1500-2000 J/kg over the next efw hours.
The deeper convection will persist through the evening as a weak
vort lobe approaches the area, so maybe that will spice things up.
Convection upstream over northeast Georgia could, as it arrives
in the southwest Upstate, produce some interesting activity...but
will encounter increasingly CAPE-deficient air as it pushes across
the SC zones.

By late evening, remnant convection dissipates over the mtns and
any lingering storms should move east of the fcst area as the wave
moves overhead. Meanwhile, a weak cold front associated with low
pressure lifting northeastward from the Great Lakes to Ontario will
get pushed over the mtns and will probably stall thru morning. Low
temps will be seasonally mild. Tuesday is a bit uncertain as along
as a boundary remains laid out SW-to-NE across the mtns, which the
GFS shows. If the boundary remains in place, the Marginal Risk on
the Day 2 Outlook looks like a good call. The 15Z RAP develops an
environment with muCAPE around 2500 J/kg to the S and E of I-85
in the afternoon with maybe 25 kt of effective bulk shear, which
is enough to get a few strong to severe storm clusters in that
area. The CAMs depict a similar idea. Keep that idea simmering on
a back burner. Over the mtns and foothills, high pressure would
be building in behind the front, so storm chances would be much
less. The boundary and increased clouds will keep temps down a
few degrees below today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Monday: Upper trough in place over the
Appalachians with exiting front at the start of the short term will
leave dry conditions in place for Wednesday, but with downsloping
and subsidence in the NW flow aloft, temperatures will bump up a
couple of degrees from Tuesday but still rather seasonal as the
front remains well to the south. Meanwhile, a cutoff midlevel low
will be meandering around the Southern Plains, and as it lifts
toward the MO Valley on Thursday, the front will be pulled back
north with it. Southerly return flow around the western periphery of
the Bermuda high will contribute to the increasingly moist airmass,
with temperatures rising slightly higher still on Thursday and a
return of afternoon convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Monday: Upper ridge over the surface Bermuda high
will slowly retrograde west toward the Southeast coast as we
approach the weekend, but operational guidance handles the Plains
mid-level cutoff differently. Ensemble guidance all points to above-
normal temperatures and increased upper support for enhanced diurnal
coverage more than typical summertime convection, especially in the
mountains closer to the shortwaves that will be lifting over the
ridge. However, no real deep-layer shear to speak of and poor lapse
rates due to the mid-level ridging may preclude much in the way of
severe convection despite additional coverage. Will have to evaluate
daily threats for isolated wet microbursts as well as building hydro
potential late in the period.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR at all terminals thru early evening
outside of scattered thunderstorms. Radar shows a broken band of
storms moving northeast from northeast GA, which may affect all
the Upstate terminals and perhaps KAVL in the mid/late afternoon
based on movement. Temporary MVFR can be expected if they hold
together. Wind should stay SW with occasional gusts, but could
be erratic around storms. This evening, guidance develops more
storms over the mtns and the area S/E of I-85, but this is looking
like it would stay either too far west for KAVL or too far S/E
of KGSP and KCLT, so no further PROBs were included. In the wake
of this activity, a moist SW flow will develop a low cloud deck
thru the early morning hours that drops thru MVFR to IFR at many
sites, including KCLT. Confidence is not great, but high enough
to include for now. The clouds should break up in the middle part
of the morning. Wind will be SW once again.

Outlook: Mostly VFR Wednesday. Mainly diurnal thunderstorms
return Thursday and will persist each afternoon/evening into the
weekend. There will be potential for late night and early morning
fog and low stratus restrictions each day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MPR/PM
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
620 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-102230-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
620 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms through tonight are capable of locally heavy
rainfall. A few isolated instances of damaging winds may occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
650 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

SCZ008-013-109-092315-
Cherokee SC-Southern Spartanburg SC-Union SC-
650 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL SPARTANBURG...
CENTRAL CHEROKEE AND NORTH CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM
EDT...

At 648 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Gaffney, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gaffney, Pacolet, Pacolet Mills, Croft State Park, Cherokee Falls,
Draytonville, Thicketty, and Saratt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3485 8185 3498 8188 3511 8152 3497 8148
      3494 8149 3494 8148 3493 8148 3491 8147
      3490 8148 3489 8147 3487 8147
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 254DEG 24KT 3498 8158

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
651 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

SCZ011-019-092330-
Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-
651 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ABBEVILLE AND WEST
CENTRAL GREENWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

At 650 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Abbeville, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Greenwood, Abbeville, Promised Land, Epworth, and Coronaca.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3407 8242 3419 8243 3428 8211 3409 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 260DEG 22KT 3415 8235

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
652 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

GAZ029-SCZ011-092315-
Elbert GA-Abbeville SC-
652 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ELBERT AND SOUTHERN
ABBEVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

At 652 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southeast of Elberton, or near Middleton, moving east at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Abbeville, Elberton, Calhoun Falls, Bobby Brown State Park, Lake
Strom Thurmond, Nancy Hart State Park, Middleton, Lake Russell,
Russell State Park, and Broad River Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 8261 3397 8264 3399 8265 3397 8278
      3399 8283 3398 8286 3399 8287 3415 8289
      3423 8236 3406 8235 3406 8244 3408 8248
      3407 8253 3401 8260 3399 8258 3398 8258
      3396 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 265DEG 32KT 3407 8279

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
656 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

SCZ012-107-109-092330-
Laurens SC-Southern Spartanburg SC-Southern Greenville SC-
656 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAURENS...
SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE AND SOUTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES THROUGH
730 PM EDT...

At 656 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northwest of Laurens, or 8 miles southwest of Fountain Inn,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fountain Inn, Woodruff, Gray Court, Simpsonville, Five Forks, Fork
Shoals, Princeton, and Hickory Tavern.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3448 8225 3455 8236 3483 8219 3470 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 215DEG 30KT 3459 8226

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ARK