High Wind and Strong Wind in Rhode Island, December 19, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
548 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
High Wind Warnings were expanded across all of Bristol and Plymouth
counties and southeast Providence county. Gale warnings were
upgraded to Storm Warnings for Narragansett Bay and Rhode Island
Sound.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of moderate to heavy rain and strong to damaging winds
  today.

- Turning much colder with gusty west winds tonight, diminishing
  Saturday

- Another round of gusty winds Sunday and Monday with robust,
  back to back low level jets, followed by a significantly
  colder airmass on Monday.

- A weak disturbance may bring a period of light snow Tuesday
  afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Moderate to heavy rain and strong to damaging winds

Rather dynamic system will impact SNE today as robust upper level
trough and attendant strong cold front move into the region. This
system will bring a period of heavy rain and strong to damaging wind
gusts.

Rainfall:

Impressive southerly low level jet ahead of the upper trough
develops and lifts northward into the region. This will transport
anomalous moisture into SNE and strong forcing acting on this
moisture will result in periods of moderate to heavy rain. There is
also marginal instability so can't rule out a few t-storms
especially near the south coast, but at the very least some heavier
convective showers are likely. The good news is it's a quick moving
system so duration of heavy rainfall will be limited and rainfall
rates will be manageable. Some showers are beginning to move into
the region early this morning but more widespread heavier rain will
hold off until after daybreak. The heaviest rain will move west to
east across SNE during the morning through about mid afternoon, with
good drying moving in later this afternoon behind the cold front as
PWATs crash. The rain could end as a brief period of snow across the
Berkshires. Rainfall amounts should range from 0.50 to 1.0 inches
across SNE, with locally higher amounts possible. Not expecting any
flood impacts but there could be some ponding on roadways.

Wind:

Impressive low level jet moves northward into the region later this
morning through mid afternoon before exiting to the east. The peak
of the jet, 70-80 kts, is mostly confined to RI and eastern MA where
strongest gusts are expected. Hi-res guidance indicates the jet
could strengthen to 80-90 kts as it moves along the south coast to
Cape Cod. This jet is near 4SD above normal which is near the max of
CFSR climatology for this time of year. Examination of soundings
show a decent inversion over the Cape/Islands with more of a neutral
temp profile further inland. How mild it gets will play a
significant role in how much wind we can mix down to the surface.
The LLJ is delayed somewhat compared to what guidance showed last
night with core moving through from late morning through mid
afternoon. This could help realize some of the stronger gusts as
temps will have more time to warm and in fact we are looking at
temps reaching upper 50s away from the Cape/Islands. There will also
be impressive pressure falls which could help enhance wind gusts and
any convective elements could help as well.

Soundings suggest we will need temps to reach 57-58F away from the
Cape/Islands and mid 50s for the Cape to get 50+ kt wind gusts down
to the ground. A 2 degree temp difference can make the difference
between 40-50 mph gusts and 55-65 mph gusts, but at this time it
appears we will get mild enough to mix down these stronger winds,
especially across portions of RI and SE MA which may see strongest
gusts as milder temps match up with the northern edge of the
strongest low level winds. As a result we expanded the high wind
warning into Providence, Taunton and Plymouth. We are expecting peak
gusts 55-65 mph in the warning area with highest confidence across
SE MA. Timing of strongest winds will be late morning into early
afternoon, lingering into mid afternoon on the Cape/Islands. One
other thing to note is if temps were to reach 60F across RI and SE
MA, soundings suggest gusts to 70+ mph would be possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Turning much colder with gusty west winds tonight,
diminishing Saturday

Cold front will be east of SNE by this evening with drier air moving
in, but robust upper trough and cold pool move through which will
likely result in scattered rain/snow showers in the evening. Then
clearing overnight as strong subsidence develops behind departing
trough. It will be windy with gusty west winds and turning much
colder in strong cold advection pattern. 850 mb temps fall from near
+10C at 18z to -13C at 06z. Soundings support 35-45 mph gusts and up
to 45-55 mph over higher elevations. Lows will drop through the 20s.

Sunshine and diminishing wind Saturday as high pres builds in from
the west with weakening gradient. Near seasonable temps.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Next system moves through late Saturday into Sunday
bringing light rain and gusty winds lingering into Monday.

Another 45-65 kt low level jet pushes into southern New England by
early Sunday morning. Model guidance has begun to hone in on the
core setting up, once again, over the Cape/Islands roughly between
06-12z Sunday, and lapse rates look to remain between 4-6 C/km. This
provides an opportunity for slightly enhanced mixing, bringing 35-45
mph gusts to the surface Sunday. A strong cold front quickly follows
the LLJ on Sunday, bringing a secondary round of winds for Monday.
Robust mid and low level cold air advection will help to mix a 40-55
mph low level jet to the surface, allowing for another round of 40-
45 mph gusts across the coastal plain and higher terrain areas late
Sunday night into Monday morning.

Behind the cold front, a significantly colder airmass sinks down
from Canada on Monday. Confidence is high that 850mb temps will be
around -15C, bringing surface temps to range from the mid 20s to low
30s across southern New England. Combined with the high
northwesterly winds, wind chills on Monday likely range from single
digits in the higher elevations to the low teens across the Cape and
Islands.

KEY MESSAGE 4... A weak disturbance may bring a period of light
snow Tuesday afternoon.

By Tuesday, an upper level disturbance over northeast Quebec helps
form a weak surface low near the international border. Guidance
shows a broad area of warm advection on the southern side of the low
as it moves southeast. Forcing from the warm advection could be
enough for widespread snow showers/light snow Tuesday into Tuesday
afternoon, and ensemble guidance probabilities for greater than 1
inch of accumulation Tuesday are beginning to increase... generally
30-50 percent across the higher elevations and north of the Mass
Pike.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...High Confidence in trends

MVFR/IFR ceilings with widespread rain moving W to E across SNE
this morning. Conditions begin to improve around 21z once the
cold front passes through and southerly winds shift westerly.

Increasing southerly winds this morning. Expecting peak winds
16-20z with gusts 35-45 kts across the interior and 45-55 kts
for the coastal plain and Cape/Islands. Winds shift to W 19-22z.
Wind shear remains a concern through 18-20z as a 70-80 kt LLJ
at 2k ft moves through.

Tonight through Saturday...High Confidence

IFR/MVFR conditions improve to VFR. Gusty west winds around 30 kts
linger into Sat morning then calm Sat and begin to shift SSW Sat
afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

MVFR/IFR through the afternoon. Wind shear likely through the
morning, and rain moves in by early morning. Improving conditions
after 21z Friday.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

MVFR/IFR through the afternoon. Wind shear likely through the
morning, and rain moves in by early morning. Improving conditions
after 21z Friday.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.

Sunday through Monday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SN, chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Saturday...High Confidence.

Storm warnings in effect today for much of the waters.

South winds increase rapidly this morning with a period of 50
kt gusts likely. Seas will build to near 15 ft on the outer
waters. Winds briefly drop off later this afternoon as the low
level jet moves to the east, then another pulse of 35-45 kt
gusts from the W develops tonight behind the cold front. Winds
will quickly diminish through the day Saturday with subsiding
seas. Vsbys will be reduced today in rain and fog. A few
t-storms are possible. Improving wx and vsby tonight.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Sunday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to
11 ft.

Sunday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of
rough seas.

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain likely, chance
of snow.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for MAZ002>006-008>014-
     026.
     High Wind Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ007-
     015>024.
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for MAZ017-018.
RI...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for RIZ001-003.
     High Wind Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for RIZ002-
     004>008.
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for RIZ002.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 3 PM EST this
     afternoon for ANZ230.
     Storm Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ231>236-251.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ237-256.
     Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ250-254-255.

&&

DISCUSSION...KJC/McMinn
AVIATION...KJC/McMinn
MARINE...KJC