A tropical wave, southeasterly flow and abundant tropical moisture over the islands promoted t-storm formation. A lightning strike impacted electrical lines in Aibonito, causing a utility pole to fall and result in a power outage.
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The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
A tropical wave, southeasterly flow and abundant tropical moisture over the islands promoted t-storm formation. A lightning strike impacted electrical lines in Aibonito, causing a utility pole to fall and result in a power outage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 2, 3:28 PM AST, 2 hours 13 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 328 PM AST Sat Aug 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * With the axis of the tropical wave now over the Mona Passage, southeasterly flow will continue to steer abundant tropical moisture over the islands through at least Sunday. * Low to moderate concentrations of Saharan dust are expected to arrive from the east on Sunday night into early Tuesday, leading to hazy skies and deteriorated air quality. * Southeasterly flow and high humidity will also increase heat index values. Heat Advisories, or even Warnings, cannot be ruled out during the workweek. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday... A tropical wave crossing the area promoted variable to showery weather over most of the region today. Radar estimated rainfall accumulations since midnight show most of the region with measurable rainfall. As of 2 PM AST, the highest accumulations were observed over Yabucoa, with up to 2.5 to 2.8 inches in several sectors of the municipality. Radar estimated accumulations above 2 inches were also observed over Corozal and Maunabo. Radar estimated accumulations above 1.5 inches were observed over Vieques, Rio Grande, Morovis and Aguadilla. Several thunderstorms were also observed over the waters, with Marine Weather Statements being in effect through most of the day. Heat indices still climbed over the 100s over several areas, particularly the SW quadrant of PR and the USVI. As the axis of the wave moved over the area (currently over the Mona Passage), southeasterly steering flow gradually started to dominate. This steering flow will continue to bring tropical moisture over the area with precipitable water (PWAT) values remaining above 2 inches through at least Sunday night, with PWAT values sharply decreasing on Monday, as more humid air is confined to the lower levels, a stark difference from the weekend. Showers, and isolated thunderstorms will continue to be steered by southeasterly flow tonight, reaching windward sectors of the islands. Low temperatures can reach the the upper 70s to low 80s at coastal and urban areas, and the upper 60s to low 70s at higher elevations. Additional convection will continue to develop tomorrow afternoon and Monday afternoon (here more limited), particularly from interior to northwestern Puerto Rico, and downwind of El Yunque and the local islands. A limited to locally elevated flooding risk will continue tomorrow. By Monday, a strengthening low- to mid-level ridge will establish itself as a plume of Saharan dust also arrives, resulting in hazy skies to start the workweek. 925 mb temperatures will continue at near to above normal values. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday... /FROM PREV DISCUSSION...Issued at 310 AM AST Sat Aug 2 2025/ The long-term forecast begins with lingering instability aloft as an upper-level low continues to exit the forecast area. Although cooler 500 mb temperatures will lead to steeper lapse rates, below-normal moisture levels will somewhat limit shower activity across the region. Nevertheless, surface heating, sea breeze convergence, and orographic lifting will be sufficient to compensate for the reduced moisture, resulting in afternoon convection over interior and western portions of Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, lingering suspended Saharan dust will lead to hazy skies and limited shower activity. Dynamic instability will persist on Wednesday as an induced surface trough moves westward and crosses the northeastern Caribbean. The areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to increase during this period, aided by near-normal moisture converging in the region. For the remainder of the long-term forecast, weather conditions will be variable, with marginal instability. This will be due to a series of weak troughs crossing the region, combined with below-to-near- normal moisture content. Alternating periods of fair weather, showers, and thunderstorm activity will follow the typical seasonal weather pattern. Showers will move onshore at times over windward coastal areas during the night and morning hours, while shower and thunderstorm development is expected over the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico during the afternoon. The southern coastal areas of Puerto Rico are likely to continue experiencing abnormally dry conditions throughout the period, with only occasional, isolated showers, which are likely to be insufficient to bring significant relief to the region. The forecast period will also be characterized by hot temperatures, as 925 mb temperatures fluctuate between near-normal and above climatological normals. These above-normal temperatures, combined with humid conditions, will result in persistently high heat index values. As a result, Heat Advisories, or even Warnings, cannot be ruled out throughout the period. Residents and visitors are advised to stay hydrated, limit outdoor activities during peak heat hours, and monitor official updates for potential heat-related alerts. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF) The axis of the tropical wave is over the Mona Passage, with ESE winds now prevailing over the islands, with sea breeze variations and local effects. TSRA will affect TJBQ through at around 03/20Z. ESE winds (at light to locally moderate) continue to bring showers and possible thunderstorms over the area, these can promote brief periods of MVFR conditions from time to time. && .MARINE... A surface high-pressure over the central Atlantic, combined with a tropical wave moving away from the islands, will promote moderate to locally fresh winds through the weekend. Seas of up to 7 ft are likely for the offshore Atlantic waters where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through this evening. Although the axis of the tropical wave is over the Mona Passage, southeasterly steering flow behind it will bring abundant tropical moisture over the waters, promoting showers and t-storms during the rest of the weekend. Hazy skies due to the arrival of Saharan dust are anticipated Monday. && .BEACH FORECAST... A moderate risk of rip currents will continue during the weekend for northern and eastern PR, as well as Culebra and St. Croix, with a low risk elsewhere. Even if the risk for rip currents is low, life-threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. Abundant moisture from a tropical wave moving away from the islands can result in showers and t-storms under southeasterly flow. Deteriorated air quality is forecast for Monday as a plume of saharan dust moves in. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ711. && MRR/RVT/ERG/MNG
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service San Juan PR 414 AM AST Sat Aug 2 2025 AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-030815- San Juan and Vicinity-Northeast-Southeast-Eastern Interior- North Central-Central Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-Northwest- Western Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Southwest-Culebra-Vieques- The nearshore and off shore Atlantic and Caribbean Coastal Waters- 414 AM AST Sat Aug 2 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Puerto Rico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight .Lightning...Isolated thunderstorms, particularly across the region. Stay alert and be prepared to take shelter if storms develop. .Excessive Rainfall...Flooding in urban areas, roads, small streams, and washes, particularly across PR, Vieques, and Culebra. There is a low chance of isolated flash floods. Elsewhere, plan for water ponding on roads and in poorly drained areas. .Excessive Heat...This level of heat affects primarily those individuals extremely sensitive to heat, especially when outdoors without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. These conditions are most likely across coastal and urban areas of PR. .Marine Conditions...Hazardous conditions for small craft in areas with seas of 7 feet or higher, particularly across Offshore Atlantic waters. Small craft should exercise caution elsewhere across the local waters. .Rip Currents...Life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone, particularly across northern and eastern PR, Culebra, and eastern Vieques. Isolated stronger rip currents may occur elsewhere, especially near piers, jetties, and channels. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Excessive rainfall expected through the weekend and into early next week, as a vigorous tropical wave increases the potential for showers and thunderstorms, thereby raising the risk of flooding. Breezy to locally windy conditions will contribute to choppy seas and maintain a moderate rip current risk through most of the period. A Saharan Air Layer with minor to moderate concentrations of Saharan dust will bring hazy skies and drier air early next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is encouraged. Please relay any information about flooding, winds, waves, and rip currents to the National Weather Service in San Juan. AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-030815- St. Thomas St. John adjacent Islands-St Croix- Nearshore Atlantic and adjacent Caribbean Coastal Waters- 414 AM AST Sat Aug 2 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of USVI. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight .Lightning...Isolated thunderstorms, particularly across the region. Stay alert and be prepared to take shelter if storms develop. .Excessive Rainfall...Flooding in urban areas, roads, small streams, and washes, particularly across Saint Thomas and Saint Croix. There is a low chance of isolated flash floods. Elsewhere, plan for water ponding on roads and in poorly drained areas. .Excessive Heat...This level of heat affects primarily those individuals extremely sensitive to heat, especially when outdoors without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. These conditions are most likely across the USVI. .Wind...Breezy conditions (18-22 kts | 21-25 mph), particularly across St. Thomas and St. John. Unsecured items could blow around. .Marine Conditions...Hazardous conditions for small craft in areas with seas of 7 feet or higher, particularly across the Offshore Atlantic waters. Small craft should exercise caution elsewhere across the local waters. .Rip Currents...Life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone, particularly across Saint Croix. Isolated stronger rip currents may occur elsewhere, especially near piers, jetties, and channels. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Excessive rainfall expected through the weekend and into early next week, as a vigorous tropical wave increases the potential for showers and thunderstorms, thereby raising the risk of flooding. Breezy to locally windy conditions will contribute to choppy seas and maintain a moderate rip current risk through most of the period. A Saharan Air Layer with minor to moderate concentrations of Saharan dust will bring hazy skies and drier air early next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is encouraged. Please relay any information about flooding, winds, waves, and rip currents to the National Weather Service in San Juan.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
458 PM AST Sat Aug 2 2025
PRZ001>005-022230-
San Juan and Vicinity PR-North Central PR-Northeast PR-
Eastern Interior PR-Southeast PR-
458 PM AST Sat Aug 2 2025
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE MUNICIPALITIES OF EASTERN
PUERTO RICO, FROM ARROYO TO RIO GRANDE, EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN
INTERIOR AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA THROUGH 630
PM AST...
At 456 PM AST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Naguabo to Maunabo, and stretching into
Rio Grande.
Movement was northwest at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 1845 6589 1841 6577 1826 6572 1801 6584
1793 6615 1793 6621 1794 6621 1795 6617
1796 6620 1794 6623 1795 6630 1805 6631
1813 6622 1819 6626 1825 6627 1828 6621
1832 6621 1833 6627 1836 6628 1844 6623
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 138DEG 17KT 1824 6581 1811 6582 1799 6591
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ERGThe San Juan radar (TJUA), 22 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:40 UTC.
1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
A NWS employee and emergency managers, reported a lightning strike that impacted electrical lines near KM 3.0 of PR-725 in the Los Pinos sector of Barrio Llanos. The incident caused a utility pole to fall and scattered debris in the area, resulting in a power outage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1292486.