Scattered showers and thunderstorms began to develop in an area with marginally sufficient shear and ample instability, ahead of a slow-moving cold front moving across central Pennsylvania during the afternoon and evening hours of July 7, 2025. Strong-to-severe thunderstorms continued across portions of Clinton County, where isolated instances of tree damage were observed.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms began to develop in an area with marginally sufficient shear and ample instability, ahead of a slow-moving cold front moving across central Pennsylvania during the afternoon and evening hours of July 7, 2025. Strong-to-severe thunderstorms continued across portions of Clinton County, where isolated instances of tree damage were observed.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 7, 2:41 PM EST, 2 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 341 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Hot and humid today with thunderstorm downpours concentrated in the northwest Alleghenies and near the I-95 corridor * Thunderstorms will be focused primarily over the southeastern half of the Commonwealth Tuesday afternoon * Seasonably warm and muggy for the rest of the week with scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Partly cloudy skies are over all of Central PA this afternoon with the remnants of Chantal now pushing east of the area and more widespread showers and storms along a cold front not quite into our area yet. Hot and humid conditions continue today with max temps in the mid 80s to low 90s or 5-10F above the historical average for early July. Max HX values will approach 100 in many of the central and eastern valleys. The main hazard of concern today will be scattered showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of a slow- moving cold front pushing southeastward from the Lower Great Lakes. Around 25-30kt of effective shear in northwest PA amid a diurnally destabilizing boundary layer will allow for loosely organized multicell clusters capable of producing isolated wind damage (svr tstm risk level 1 out of 5 or MRGL). HREF 3hr QPF PMM signal also highlights a locally heavy rain threat across this area (peaking 18-21Z downwind of Lake Erie) with >1.5" pwats supporting some isolated point amounts of 2+ inches possible. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for much of northwest PA where scattered instances of flooding are possible. Farther southeast, modest instability will continue to sustain some stronger updrafts despite waning shear profiles. Gusty winds and heavy rain are possible with any storms that fire, though it will likely take multiple rounds of storms to produce flooding and wind gusts should be isolated/short-lived. Coverage of showers fades overnight with a good signal for post frontal low clouds over the western mtns and areas of fog across the central and eastern valleys. Another warm and muggy night in most locations with low temps in the 65-75F range. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Max temps drop 5-10 degrees behind the front over the western 1/2 of the CWA on Tuesday. The latest guidance shows the front stalling out or becoming quasi stationary over CPA by 00Z Wed. Latest D2 outlooks from SPC and WPC include an upgrade to slight risk for severe storms(level 2 out of 5) and excessive rainfall (2 out of 4) mainly for areas to the southeast of the frontal zone where there will be plenty of MLCAPE and 70+ dewpoints. Tall or thin profiles suggest heavy rain potential along with water-loading/severe downdraft potential. Latest CAMs depict scattered thunderstorms congealing into a line of storms Tuesday afternoon with an attendant increased risk for damaging straight line winds. Ahead of the rain, there also remains some concern for max HX values to reach or exceed the century mark in the LSV Tuesday afternoon. A heat advy may be needed; for now we coordinated with PHI to not include any of the Lehigh/Lower Susq zones but will continue to highlight in the HWO. Best odds for a thunderstorm on Wednesday remains along the MD line where the best moisture/instability overlay will exist. At this time, t-storms are expected to be non-severe with heavy rain risk shifting to the south of the Mason Dixon line. Max/min temps remain seasonably warm for early/mid July. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PoPs rise again Thursday with the approach of another shortwave trough. The forecast for Friday and the weekend is more uncertain, with some guidance suggesting a break in the unsettled pattern, and others suggesting active weather continues. An active pattern would favor continue heat/humidity while a quieter pattern could support the intrusion of lower dewpoints and more refreshing conditions. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Scattered showers and storms are moving across NW PA this afternoon and briefly into Central PA and the Susq Valley late today/early this evening ahead of a slow moving cold front. Prevailing VFR conditions continue through evening hours bringing a few brief periods of MVFR CIGS and VSBYS in the heavier showers and storms. Patchy fog is possible at all TAF sites late tonight and Tuesday morning. However, cloud cover and a light breeze from the west later tonight will likely negate a significant threat for widespread fog. IFR/LIFR ceilings are favored for several hours at BFD and JST with MVFR likely at IPT, UNV, and AOO. A few showers could develop by midday on Tuesday, but showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread into the afternoon. Brief restrictions are possible everywhere except BFD, with storms starting in the vicinity of a line extending from JST/AOO to UNV to IPT and then moving east-southeastward and affecting MDT and LNS later in the afternoon/early evening. Outlook... Tue PM...Showers fade, fog possible across much of the region into Wednesday morning. Wed...Best chance for storms and restrictions in southern PA. Thu-Sat...Potential for showers and thunderstorms, mainly aftn/eve. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Banghoff NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff LONG TERM...Lambert/Banghoff AVIATION...Lambert/Banghoff
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 355 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 PAZ012-018-019-024>028-033>035-041-042-045-046-049>053-082000- Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair- Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia- 355 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. A few strong thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible this afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall from slow moving storms will also increase the risk of flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ004>006-010-011-017-037-082000- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Tioga- 355 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. A few strong thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible this afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall from slow moving storms will also increase the risk of flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ036-056>059-063>066-082000- Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- 355 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Maximum heat index values will approach 100 degrees this afternoon. There is a moderate risk of heat related impacts especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Maximum heat index values will approach 100 degrees Tuesday afternoon. There is a moderate risk of heat related impacts especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. A few strong thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible Tuesday afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall from strong storms will also increase the risk of flash flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.
The State College radar (KCCX), 63 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:58 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked a large tree down on Hyner Run Road approximately 8 miles south-southwest of Slate Run.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked a tree down at the intersection of PA-44 and Coudersport Pike approximately 6 miles southwest of Canmal.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked a tree down onto wires in the 300 block of Little Plum Run Road near McElhattan.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked multiple trees down in the vicinity of Hunter Hollow Road and Shirk Hollow Road near Dunnstown.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1275002, 1275003, 1275005, 1275004.