A strong surface low quickly deepened offshore due west of the mouth of the Columbia River and progressed towards the Olympic Peninsula allowing for a tight surface pressure gradient to drive strong to locally high winds region-wide. This surface gradient was also aided by a strong band of west-southwest winds just above the surface (often called a sting jet) which pivoted over the region…
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The episode as NWS PQR wrote it up.
A strong surface low quickly deepened offshore due west of the mouth of the Columbia River and progressed towards the Olympic Peninsula allowing for a tight surface pressure gradient to drive strong to locally high winds region-wide. This surface gradient was also aided by a strong band of west-southwest winds just above the surface (often called a sting jet) which pivoted over the region through the day on Oct. 25th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 25, 2:03 AM PST, 7 hours 57 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
303 AM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Active and wet weather continues as a strong low
pressure system moves onshore through Saturday. This system
will bring additional rain and stronger, possibly damaging
winds. Rain and high-elevations snow showers, along with breezy
winds continue into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Now through Monday Night...Multiple hazards are
in play as a series of weather systems affect the region through
the weekend. Another surface low is quickly deepening west of
the mouth of the Columbia River, and will move toward the
northwestern tip of the Olympic Peninsula through Saturday. As
this deep low approaches the coast, it will yield additional
wind hazards as the surface pressure gradient tightens.
South/southwest winds of 25-35 mph are expected along the coast
and in the Coast Range, and 20-30 mph elsewhere inland. On the
southwestern flank of the low, a strong band of west-southwest
winds, often called a sting jet, will pivot over the region
through the day. This jet will see winds of some 60-70 kt at
only a few thousand feet above the surface, which would be able
to reach the ground with only modest vertical mixing. At the
same time, high- resolution numerical guidance shows very
limited instability, however with sea surface temperatures
remaining relatively warm, destabilization of the surface layer
over the ocean seems to be underrepresented in models. Even just
a few degrees of surface warming could allow for overturning in
the lowest levels sufficient to bring these very strong winds
down to the ground. As such, any heavy shower, not even
necessarily one deep enough to contain lightning, could yield
very strong wind gusts up to 65 mph along the coast and Coast
Range, and the High Wind Warning has therefore been expanded to
cover these areas from 5 AM through 11 PM Saturday. Elsewhere
inland, destabilization from surface heating also remains
possible, however these mid-level winds look to be slightly
lighter after interacting with the Coast Range, but still
capable of gusts reaching 45-50 mph along the I-5 corridor and
across the Cascade foothills. A Wind Advisory has been hoisted
from 5 AM to 11 PM Saturday in these areas to highlight this
risk.
Furthermore, the sting jet will also manifest as strong wind
shear in the lowest levels, which could allow any modest updraft
to easily rotate. In collaboration with the Storm Prediction
Center and neighboring forecast offices, a narrow Marginal Risk
region for severe weather has been added along the Oregon Coast
and Coast Range on Saturday. The very modest but sufficient
instability may support occasional severe wind gusts in even
shallow rain showers regardless of lightning potential,
particularly over higher terrain. Given the robust low-level
shear, a few showers may also develop into low-topped supercells
capable of generating a brief land-falling tornado.
Saturday through Sunday, expect an additional 1.00-2.00 inches
of precipitation along the I-5 corridor, 1.50-2.50 inches for
the Coast and Coast ranger and 1.50-3.00 inches for the
Cascades. Area rivers remain at or near their annual minimum
levels, enabling them to handle this amount of runoff without
widespread flooding concerns.
As Saturday progresses, cooler air aloft in addition to the
wet-bulb effect from the convective nature of the system today,
will result in snow levels lowering towards 3500 ft. Total snow
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, with accumulations of 12 inches
or more above 5500 ft. Also, expect winds gusting as high as 40
to 50 mph on Saturday, with the highest wind gusts on exposed
ridgetops and near any heavier rain showers. Another low associated
with a weak upper-level shortwave will move onshore near the
OR/CA border. This embedded low will keep both rain and snow
showers in the forecast through early Monday. As such, a Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect for the western slopes of
the southern Washington and northern Oregon Cascades from 11 AM
Saturday through 5 AM Monday. Travelers through Cascade passes
should be prepared for winter driving conditions, and recreators
at high elevations should expect significant accumulations and
related impacts. -36/42
.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...A shortwave ridge looks
to provide a brief break from the wettest weather late Monday
into Tuesday. However, this looks to be a very short lived break
as another series of systems is expected to take aim at the
PacNW by mid to late next week. Long-range ensemble guidance
continues to highlight the potential for another impactful
system, for Halloween into the first weekend of November.
However, uncertainty remains high as some models and their
ensembles are showing a system bringing upwards of 1.5 inches of
precipitation. It should be noted that these model solutions
are in the minority, but the majority do have at least some
precipitation in the forecast for Thursday and Friday. /42
&&
.AVIATION...An incoming frontal system will bring widespread
VFR/MVFR conditions across the airspace through at least the 12Z
TAF period. These mixed flight conditions will be the result of
showers along with an increasing threat of thunderstorms with the
potential for strong to severe wind gusts through at least 03Z
Sunday. As a result, TAF sites do have periods of PROB30s for
thunderstorms as well as LLWS. South to southwest winds are
expected across the airspace. Along the coast, expect sustained
winds 20-25 kt with gusts up to 50 kt during the day on Saturday.
Inland winds will also be breezy but less than the coast. Expect
sustained winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 40 kt during
the day Saturday.
Any thunderstorms that develop could produced gusty and erratic
winds and lightning. Also, this pattern is favorable for strong wind
shear as well as low-topped supercells capable of generating a
brief funnel clouds or land-falling tornados (FC and +FC). If
these are observed by pilots, please submit a PIREP when able.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect a mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions
through the TAF period, along with widespread showers. There is a
15-20% chance of thunderstorms with potential for strong wind
gusts. Expect south/southwesterly winds that will increase towards
15-20 kt with gusts up to 40 kt during the day Saturday. /42
&&
.MARINE...An active weather pattern will continue into this
weekend with another round of strong Gales and Storm force gusts
expected on Saturday as a strong low pressure system is expected
to impact all waters through Saturday night. The surface low is
expected to move northeast toward either the Washington coast or
Vancouver Island, but there remains considerable uncertainty with
the strength and position of a potentially strong sting jet
rounding the backside of this low. Therefore, a Gale Warning will
remain in place until noon. At that time a Storm Warning will go
into effect for all waters and persist through at least 11 pm
tonight.
Seas will likely linger around 12 to 16 ft into Saturday morning,
but are expected to quickly build towards 24-28 ft by late
Saturday afternoon. Seas are expected to gradually start to
subside late Saturday night, dropping into the mid to upper teens
Sunday morning, and to around 9 to 11 ft by Sunday night. There is
potential for another strong low pressure system to develop in
the NE Pacific early next week, but most guidance suggests that it
will stay well offshore. That said, there is around a 10% chance
of this system approaching close enough to bring gale force wind
gusts and elevated seas. /42-19
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...A High Surf Advisory has been issued for the
central and northern Oregon Coast as well as the southern
Washington Coast for Saturday. Elevated seas of 23 to 28 ft could
result in breakers up to of 35 ft along the beach. Will also need
to monitor for potential minor coastal flooding along the north
Oregon and south Washington coast during the high tide Saturday
afternoon.
Caution should be used when in or near the water. Always keep an
eye on the waves, and be especially watchful of children and pets.
Remember, never turn your back on the ocean! Those participating
in razor clam digs should exercise caution.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 11 PM PDT this
evening for ORZ101>107.
High Surf Advisory from noon today to 5 AM PDT Sunday for
ORZ101>103.
Wind Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 11 PM PDT this
evening for ORZ108>118-123>125.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT
Monday for ORZ126>128.
WA...High Wind Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 11 PM PDT this
evening for WAZ201>203.
High Surf Advisory from noon today to 5 AM PDT Sunday for WAZ201.
Wind Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 11 PM PDT this
evening for WAZ204>208.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT
Monday for WAZ211.
PZ...Gale Warning until noon PDT today for PZZ210-251>253-271>273.
Storm Warning from noon today to 11 PM PDT this evening for
PZZ210-251>253-271>273.
&&
www.weather.gov/portland
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x.com/NWSPortlandThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A peak gust of 75 mph was measured at the Yaquina Bay Bridge mesonet station ODT38 at 1451 PST. This stations was at or near warning criteria from 1000 to 1900 PST.
A 66 mph peak wind gust was measured at the Garibaldi Mesonet station GARO3 at 1430. This stations was at or near warning criteria from around 1100 to 1630 PST on October 25th. Additionally, a 59 mph peak wind gusts was measured at the at Pacific City Mesonet station AT297 at 1428, and AT297 was at or near warning criteria 1200 to 1600 PST.
A peak gust of 64 mph was measured at the Rockhouse RAWS at 1512 PST with winds at or near warning criteria 1200 to 1800 PST on October 25th.
At 1743 PST a peak gust of 60mph was measured by a mesonet station at the Astoria-Megler Bridge. This mesonet station was at or near warning criteria from 1300 to 1930 PST on October 25th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, October 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1297359, 1297358, 1297360, 1297357.