Wildfire in Oregon, October 1 to 24, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1016 PM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025

.DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...01/06Z TAFs...Overall, VFR conditions, with areas of
MVFR conditions, and widespread terrain obsurations will persist
into tonight. Showers will also continue for much of the area
tonight. Along the coast, and at any locations where clouds clear
tonight, could see IFR/LIFR develop in fog and/or low stratus.
Southwest winds will be stronger on the east side in the afternoon.
-BR-y/Hermansen

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 205 PM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025/

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a large swath of rain has moved
onshore and up to the Cascade slopes as of early this afternoon
as a cold front works its way through the region. This front is
forecast to produce widespread light rain, although some periods
of moderate rain are possible along the coast and coastal ranges
and the western slopes of the Cascades. Gusty winds are also
expected today, mainly over high terrain, along the coast, in the
Shasta Valley, and east of the Cascades (especially in the Summer
Lake area). Wind Advisories continue in the Shasta Valley and the
East Side through this evening, with details found at PDXNPWMFR.

The front has lost some of its punch in terms of moisture, and as
a result, rainfall amounts are expected to be less than what we
had with the previous front. Post frontal showers are likely
behind the front tonight and continuing into Thursday as the
upper level trough passes overhead. Showers should taper off by
Thursday evening as the trough exits and high pressure attempts
to rebuild just to our west.

This will usher in a return to dry conditions across the area for
the weekend. With swift northwest flow overhead between the
eastern Pacific ridge and the trough to the east, temperatures
will remain at or just below seasonal normals.

Early next week, a large trough of closed low is expected to
develop over California and the Great Basin, with ridging nudging
into Washington and northern Oregon. This pattern is known to
produce warm and dry conditions with east winds, as an enhanced
thermal trough develops along the coast. The forecast has been
updated to depict this pattern, with temperatures warming to 5 to
10 degrees above normal for early October, and little to no
chance for rain until the pattern shifts later in the week. -Bpn

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday, September 30, 2025...South
gales and very steep seas are expected through this afternoon as a
cold front passes over the area. One the front moves onshore this
evening, winds will diminish some, but will remain breezy through
tonight and Wednesday. Meanwhile, building west swell and
residual wind driven seas will result in continuing steep to very
steep seas. Steep seas will gradually diminish Thursday through
Friday morning.

An upper trough will move from north to south in central Oregon and
in it's wake will be a developing thermal trough resulting in
increasing north winds during the day Friday and could persist
through the weekend and into early next week. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ030-031.

CA...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-
     376.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-370.

&&