Wildfire in Oregon, June 11 to 25, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1013 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.UPDATED AVIATION.

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs...TAFs are forecasted to remain in VFR
throughout the forecast period. Winds remain breezy with most
sites receiving at least winds 15-25 knots. Winds will slow down
going through the evening and overnight hours, but some sites,
like DLS/PDT, will remain on the windier side at 15-25 knots
throughout the rest of the period. Otherwise, CIG and VIS remain
good thanks to mixing and lack of storms with the trough pulling
through. No precip is expected as the disturbance in the eastern
part of the CWA continues to move towards the east into the
Boise area as we go through the morning/afternoon.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 151 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025/

SHORT TERM...today through Friday Morning...Satellite shows
mostly clear conditions across the region, however convection
appears to be forming on the southern part of the CWA close to the
Bend/Redmond and John Day areas. The greatest potential for
thunderstorms will be secluded to Central OR and areas along the
Southern Blues and Eastern Mountains later this afternoon. As the
shortwave pushes through the region, enough uplift and moisture
will help develop isolated thunderstorms later on this afternoon.
Outflow boundaries from these storms can bring some gusty winds
of up to 45 knots. The greatest chance for developing storms will
be between now and 8PM tonight, shortly before sunset.

With the dominant ridging pattern now becoming more trough
focused, temperatures will cool down from the triple digits we saw
today and yesterday to the mid-upper 80s by Thursday in much of
the Basin (>85% chance) and other higher elevated population
centers. Not seeing anything to suggest additional Heat
Advisories are needed in the short term as the Heat Impact Level
drops to 1-2, then mostly to 1 by Thursday. Although the pattern
remains mostly trough oriented, the Basin and the Kittitas remain
fairly dry for the entirety of the short term due to lack of
moisture advection with this system.

Winds will be a bit breezy Wednesday afternoon near the
Dalles/Mountain gaps with DESI advertising >90% chance for wind
gusts greater than 45 mph. Not too confident about issuing Wind
Advisory as the area doesn't seem to be large enough but will keep
an eye if winds in this area trend one way or another or if the
area of impact increases between now and then.

LONG TERM...Friday Morning through Tuesday...Models remain
fairly confident Friday going into Saturday that a trough will sit
just off the Pacific coast and keep conditions dry and
temperatures near normal. However, models greatly diverge as we
head into the weekend going into early next week on how it wants
to handle the incoming trough and its strength. A weaker trough
signifies that the area will see much less precipitation while
the truth remains for the opposite. About 22% of cluster members
want to bring a stronger trough and bring light precip across the
region with hints of light mountain snow across the Blues. One
thing remains certain is that we're not expecting a system with
significant impacts regarding QPF amount (50-70% chance) as
moisture doesn't seem significant even with the most "aggressive"
solutions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  91  55  85  52 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  90  60  84  55 /  10   0   0  10
PSC  94  57  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  94  58  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  93  57  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  89  57  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  85  44  80  42 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  84  52  80  50 /  30  10   0  10
GCD  86  49  82  48 /  50  10   0  10
DLS  85  57  81  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for WAZ690.

&&

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...95