Hail and Damaging Winds in Idaho, June 11, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1210 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk for severe storms today.

- Flash flood watch over Wapiti burn scar in Custer County this
  afternoon and evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Forecast updated to begin flash flood watch for Wapiti burn scar
at 10 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1256 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Most likely looking at a very active day across east Idaho today. We
will start the day with some overnight showers drifting through the
central mountains and some cloud cover across southern Idaho. Models
remain insistent that enough instability and upper level dynamics
are in place for clusters of thunderstorms to develop over central
Idaho around midday. These storms are expected to rapidly intensify
and move east, possibly congealing into a broken line across east
Idaho before moving into Wyoming. But that may not be all of the
storms as the 3km NAM and HRRR both show another round of storms
emerging from the Lemhi area and into the upper Snake Plain late
afternoon and early evening. Also, the NAM is showing storms
potentially moving into the Bear Lake region around that time as
well. There still remains a threat for severe thunderstorms across
the region with large hail and damaging winds as the main threat.
The most likely time for severe weather is from 12pm to 8pm.
Ensembles are indicating that up to 0.50 inches of rain is possible
in these storms. A flash flood watch is in effect for the Wapiti
Burn Scar near Stanley. If one of these heavier storms would move
through that area, then there is a high chance of debris flows
there. Most of the convection should diminish by late evening.

On Thursday, looking at another round of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms as another shortwave passes through.
However, the strength of this system combined with instability over
the area and upper level dynamics aren't nearly as supportive of
strong storms as we will see today.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Southwest flow is expected across the region through the weekend.
This will allow well above average temperatures to continue. Models
show a weak cold front arriving Monday which may allow temperatures
to return more normal for midweek. The extended forecast looks dry
as systems in the extended look too weak or not enough moisture
around to work with.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

TSRA probabilities for the afternoon have increased to the
point where PROB30 groups are useful. -SHRA has gone nearly
categorical for some this afternoon. By 11/22Z, skies will start
to clear from west to east, so first is KBYI, then KSUN, KPIH,
KIDA, then KDIJ by 12/03Z. Skies for most will be literally
clear, with aonther feature generating clouds late tonight. KIDA
also has a risk of getting some clouds below 2500ft AGL. Wind
will be moderately strong in thunderstorms, with gusts to
35KT-40KT. Precipitation has the potential to be moderate to
heavy at times, with Precipitable Water as high an inch in the
KPIH/KIDA area.

Expecting a return of TSRA on Thu afternoon, but no risk of
severe TS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1256 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

A strong system/trough will move through the area today
bringing widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms late
this morning into the early evening. Moderate to strong
outflows and moderate to large hail are expected with
thunderstorms. Also, expect moderate to heavy brief rainfall
with thunderstorms. Isolated flooding is possible, especially
for the Wapiti burn scar north of Stanley. Temperatures will
drop 4 to 8 degrees (70s to 80s) today and Thursday compared to
yesterday but temperatures will still be above normal. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected Thursday as well. The area begins to
dry out again towards the end of the week and into the weekend
with temperatures rising back to the 80s and 90s by the weekend.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ072.

&&

UPDATE...GK
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...TW