Strong to severe thunderstorms developed across western Kansas during the evening of the 19th, near a surface low pressure system and frontal boundary. These storms moved east-southeast, and into northeastern Oklahoma during the early morning hours of the 20th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TSA wrote it up.
Strong to severe thunderstorms developed across western Kansas during the evening of the 19th, near a surface low pressure system and frontal boundary. These storms moved east-southeast, and into northeastern Oklahoma during the early morning hours of the 20th. The strongest storms produced damaging wind gusts. Another round of thunderstorms developed over northern Oklahoma during the evening of the 20th, along the stalled frontal boundary. These storms moved east across portions of northeastern Oklahoma during the late evening hours. The strongest storms produced large hail up to golf ball size and damaging wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 19, 11:45 PM CST, 5 hours 9 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 - Above average temperatures through the weekend and into early next week before a cool-down to near or below seasonal average by midweek. - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will continue this weekend and much of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday and Saturday Night) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 A cluster of storms, currently ongoing across south/southwest KS will likely be ongoing across northeast OK and far northwest AR by sunrise this morning. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible in this cluster of storms this morning, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat and isolated large hail being a secondary threat. Additionally, consensus in CAM guidance indicate the storms may train and produce pockets of heavy rainfall, with pockets of 2 to 3+ inches possible, which may lead to flooding and isolated flash flooding. These storms are expected to become somewhat less organized, but should remain intact with a flooding threat through the late morning and perhaps the early afternoon hours across far northeast OK and far northwest AR as modest to strong warm air advection fuels the storms. Resultant outflow boundaries from the morning storms may generate additional showers and thunderstorms by early-mid afternoon, as well. A secondary mid-level shortwave trough will eject off the Rockies by midday, with the trough axis positioned just west of the forecast area by mid-late afternoon. While cloud cover will remain fairly thick through the morning and into the afternoon over far northeast OK and far northwest AR, much less cloud cover is expected southwest of a line between Tulsa and Fort Smith by midday. This will allow strong daytime heating (lower-90s) and destabilization ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, above a very moist airmass, and will lead to isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop by mid- afternoon. A few storms may develop in the forecast area in eastern OK, but majority of the storms will move into the CWA from central/south-central OK. One limiting factor with regards to the severe potential will be relatively weak deep bulk shear (20-25 knots), with weak mid-level winds. However, pockets of stronger bulk shear may cause a few strong to marginally severe storms. And once again, heavy rainfall with stronger and training storms may lead to nuisance flooding and isolated flash flooding in spots. Lastly, CAMs and global models continue to hint at nighttime cluster of storms/MCS development near the OK/KS and MO/AR borders during the evening and overnight hours Saturday night into Sunday morning, which may also carry a limited severe and flooding risk. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Widespread storm chances will persist Sunday into Monday as a mid- level trough axis gradually moves across the area and a more zonal flow regime transpires aloft behind it. There is still numerous discrepancies in forecast models with regards to the synoptic pattern next week, especially by mid-late week. A series of shortwave troughs/perturbations caught in the zonal flow will maintain moderate-high (40-80%) precipitation chances Monday and Tuesday before its parent upper-level trough/low develops over the Rockies and moves across the Central Plains by midweek. Models continue to suggest a surface cold front moving through the forecast area sometime Tuesday evening/night into Wednesday morning, with lots of uncertainty at this time with exact timing. Rain chances are expected to slowly decrease by the tail-end of the workweek as the mid/upper-level low shifts east of the area, though weather conditions will be highly be dependent on exact track and position of the upper-level low. Overall, the long-term period, especially Wednesday-Friday, is still highly uncertain at this time. However, confidence is high enough to state that the pattern is trending to be wetter and much cooler than this past week has been. Better details to come in later forecast updates. Mejia && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 The main impact over the TAF period will be numerous chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area. A complex of storms is expected to approach NE OK sites this morning and eventually track eastward into NW AR by mid to late morning. Reduced VSBY will be noted in any storms along with lighting impacts at terminals. A lull in activity is expected from late morning through early afternoon before another round of scattered thunderstorms becomes possible mainly across E OK with more storms possible across NW AR sites by the mid to late evening. Exact timing and location is very hard to pin down in this pattern and while storms will not affect sites at all times, chances are there throughout the period, especially across NE OK sites. Winds will generally remain light out of the south outside of any storm induced impacts. Cigs should remain VFR as well through the period. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 89 69 86 69 / 60 40 50 60 FSM 91 69 90 70 / 20 20 30 40 MLC 92 68 88 70 / 20 20 50 50 BVO 86 64 84 65 / 70 50 60 60 FYV 85 64 86 65 / 60 40 40 50 BYV 80 64 85 65 / 60 60 50 50 MKO 91 67 87 68 / 40 30 50 50 MIO 81 64 84 65 / 80 60 60 60 F10 92 66 87 67 / 20 30 50 50 HHW 91 67 89 69 / 10 10 30 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...04
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Tulsa OK 454 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000- Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK- Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK- Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK- Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK- Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK- Washington OK-Washington AR- 454 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. RISK...Limited. AREA...Primarily along and north of Interstate 40. ONSET...Ongoing. HEAVY RAIN. RISK...Elevated. AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. ONSET...Ongoing. DISCUSSION... Numerous thunderstorms will spread across portions of northeast Oklahoma and possibly far northwest Arkansas this morning into early afternoon. These storms may produce locally gusty winds with a limited risk of severe weather. Also, locally heavy rainfall is likely as the storm complex spreads eastward. The outflow boundary from the morning storms may become a focus for additional storm development from mid afternoon through the evening. Any storms that develop during this time frame will also pose a limited risk of severe weather. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. SUNDAY through Tuesday...Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Potential. WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential. THURSDAY and FRIDAY...No Hazards. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Daily thunderstorm chances continue Sunday through Tuesday with locally heavy rainfall and isolated severe weather potential. Storms will not be continuous each day however chances will remain present during both the day time and night time hours. A drying trend begins by mid next week. weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
335 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
OKZ054-059-200915-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
335 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL OSAGE AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES THROUGH 415 AM CDT...
At 335 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
southeast of Ponca City, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
around unsecured objects.
Locations in or near the path include...
Pearsonia... Skedee...
Webb City... Hallett...
Apperson... Burbank...
Fairfax... Blackburn...
Ralston... Maramec...
Sooner Lake... Shidler...
Pawnee... Kaw Lake...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3669 9705 3669 9693 3675 9689 3674 9683
3677 9682 3678 9675 3684 9675 3681 9631
3620 9652 3625 9684 3625 9692 3633 9693
3634 9703 3651 9703 3653 9698 3655 9690
3658 9689 3660 9692 3658 9698 3659 9705
TIME...MOT...LOC 0835Z 281DEG 26KT 3669 9698
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
414 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
OKZ054-059-201000-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
414 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL OSAGE AND EASTERN PAWNEE
COUNTIES THROUGH 500 AM CDT...
At 413 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
east of Ralston, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
is possible.
Locations in or near the path include...
Westport... Barnsdall...
Hominy... Skedee...
Walnut Creek State Park... Wynona...
Hallett... Tallant...
Pawhuska... Cleveland...
Sunset Lake... Fairfax...
Blackburn... Ralston...
Osage Hills State Park... Pershing...
Maramec... Osage...
Nelagoney... Shidler...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3626 9681 3679 9668 3679 9611 3616 9621
3616 9627
TIME...MOT...LOC 0913Z 281DEG 25KT 3652 9668
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPHThe Tulsa radar (KINX), 73 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:54 UTC.
6 hail, 3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Oklahoma Mesonet station near Vinita measured thunderstorm wind gusts up to 62 mph.
Half dollar size hail damaged homes and vehicles.
Half dollar size hail damaged homes and vehicles.
Golf ball size hail damaged homes, businesses, and vehicles.
Strong thunderstorm wind snapped large tree limbs.
Thunderstorm wind gusts were measured to 63 mph southwest of Catoosa.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oklahoma in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Oklahoma, September 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1290820, 1292004, 1292003, 1290821, 1292009, 1292017, 1292046, 1292042, 1292027.