Tornadoes and Hail in Oklahoma, March 3 to 4, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
542 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 518 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

- Severe storms likely late tonight into Tuesday morning.

- Strong damaging wind gusts possible Tuesday afternoon and
  evening across western Oklahoma/northern Texas.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 249 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

Thunderstorms and severe storms are likely late this evening and
overnight. The overall scenario still looks the same with the
expectation that a line of storms will develop quickly late this
evening, most likely around 10 PM or 11 PM across western Oklahoma
and into western north Texas. This line will advance eastward with
overnight with the potential of severe thunderstorms, mainly
strong thunderstorm winds and the potential of quarters to golf
ball size hail. As the SPC discussed in their late morning update
to the convective outlook, higher surface moisture is spreading
north into the area which can contribute to increased low-level
instability which led to the upgrade to Enhanced Risk of severe
storms overnight.

Initially, the projected orientation of the line of storms is not
ideal for QLCS (quasi- linear convective system) tornadoes, but
there is definite potential for the line to become better oriented
to the wind shear vector with time and the low- level wind shear
is still sufficient that we will be watching for the potential of
QLCS tornadoes as the line advances east. It will be good for
people to have multiple ways to receive weather warnings overnight
while they sleep.

The line of storms will likely be exiting the area around or a
little after sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 249 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

As the storm system that is responsible for tonight's storms moves
toward the area, a surface low deepens to below 990 mb and moves
across Kansas or northern Oklahoma. Very strong winds are expected
Tuesday in response to the increasing pressure gradient over the
area with the deepening surface low. We will keep the High Wind
Watch in the west right now as the wind gusts in the forecast
grids are expected to be near 50 knots, and will let the overnight
shift decide if a High Wind Warning or Wind Advisory is most
appropriate for Tuesday. Farther east, we have expanded the Wind
Advisory that is out to include all of the forecast area that is
not in the High Wind Watch.

With the strong winds, wildfire weather conditions will be
elevated, but will also be moderated by (a) that forecast
relative humidity is not expected to be too low (generally the
afternoon minimum RH is forecast to be above 30 percent), and (b)
any wetting rains from the overnight squall line to make
vegetation and fuels less prone to easily burn. Given the
expectations of where rain is most likely overnight, the area of
concern for fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon would
primarily be across far western sections of Oklahoma and north
Texas where the potential of storms is lower Monday night/Tuesday
morning.

As moisture wraps around the storm system, there will be the
potential of some showers across northern Oklahoma on Tuesday
afternoon, but these should be relatively light.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

At least elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible
through the end of the week. Cooler temperatures (50s and 60s) are
expected into the weekend, with precipitation chances returning
early in the weekend.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

Stratus will maintain IFR conditions across terminals KOKC & KOUN
through 07Z with ceilings finally improving to VFR conditions by
20Z. MVFR conditions currently across terminals KPNC, KSWO, and
KDUA are expected to lower to IFR conditions by 03Z and not
improve to VFR conditions until 15Z. All of our remaining
terminals across western Oklahoma and northern Texas will remain
under VFR conditions at least through 02Z as KLAW & KSPS will
reduce to MVFR to near IFR conditions. A large synoptic storms
system will be moving through tonight eventually pushing a strong
cold front & dryline across our area affecting all terminals. The
timing of the storms would be between 05-12Z with a potential of
severe storms with large hail, damaging winds, and a potential of
a tornado. Will see visibilities briefly reduce in heavy rain
should any storm cells pass over our terminals. After 18Z, the
cold front will be pushing through veering winds out of the
northwest behind the front. Expect very windy conditions behind
the front across all our terminals with sustained wind speeds at
25-35 kts and 35-55 kt gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  50  62  34  52 /  90  30  20   0
Hobart OK         43  60  33  57 /  80  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  49  64  37  59 /  90  10   0   0
Gage OK           38  54  28  55 /  30  30  10   0
Ponca City OK     51  64  32  51 /  90  40  50   0
Durant OK         55  67  38  55 / 100  70   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     OKZ004-005-009-010-014>016-021-022-033>038-044.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for
     OKZ006>008-011>013-017>020-023>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     TXZ083>089.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for
     TXZ090.

&&

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...68