High Wind in Oklahoma, January 5, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
601 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 537 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

- Strong cold front arrives today with strong northerly winds and
  much colder temperatures.

- Chance of accumulating snow and a glaze of ice across northern
  Oklahoma today.

- Dangerous wind chills are expected tonight into Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

An intense mid-latitude cyclone will track eastward across the
Southern Plains this morning. Water vapor imagery shows the parent
mid/upper-level trough entering the Oklahoma and Texas
panhandles. Downstream surface cyclogenesis is resulting in the
development of a surface low across west central/southwest
Oklahoma.

As the surface low accelerates eastward and eventually
northeastward, the trailing cold front will continue to advance to
the southeast this morning. Falling temperatures with gusty
northwest winds will occur behind the cold front. A tight surface
pressure gradient, strong cold air advection, and 40 to 50 knot
925 mb flow with steep low-level lapse rates indicate wind gusts
in excess of 40 mph are likely for much of the area. Some
locations may see wind gusts around 50 mph.

Precipitation will occur across northern Oklahoma, north of the
track of low. The track of the surface low is a little farther
south than previous forecasts. As a result the Winter Advisory was
expanded. With a warm nose aloft, a transition from rain to
freezing rain/sleet to snow is expected. A trace to 2" of snowfall
is expected across the northern two rows of counties with the
highest amounts across far northwest Oklahoma (Harper and Woodward
counties). The 90th percentile (reasonable worse case scenario)
would indicate >3" of snowfall could occur if we see a mesoscale
band across Harper and Woods counties. If a heavier band of snow
were to occur, brief near-Blizzard conditions could occur near the
state line. The most significant snowfall will be north of the
Oklahoma/Kansas state line. Elevated instability may even allow
for some convective elements. Gusty northwest winds will result in
blowing snow, so minor impacts to travel are likely with moderate
impacts possible in the Winter Weather Advisory. Snow should end
from west to east during the morning hours.

Dangerous wind chills will occur this afternoon into tonight,
which will be the main weather story for most locations. Cold air
advection and modest 925 to 850 mb flow will continue breezy
northerly winds even after sunset. As a result, wind chills near
and north of I-40 are forecast to be around -5 to 0 deg F tonight.
A Cold Weather Advisory might be need for parts of the area
tonight.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 343 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

Cold, below-average temperatures will continue Monday and Tuesday
with continued northerly low-level flow. Highs will generally be
in the 20s and 30s deg F and lows in the single digits and teens.
No precipitation is expected during this period.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 343 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

By Thursday into Friday, the evolution of a cutoff low across
Baja California and how part of it phases with the northern stream
will have to be watched carefully. Synoptic-scale ascent ahead of
the feature may provide another chance of precipitation. However,
there remains the chance the system may remain to the south or
weaken/become sheared out. Confidence on its evolution is low. If
precipitation occurs, there might sufficient cold air for winter
precipitation if the phasing of the northern stream and any
attendant cold front are in-sync with the southern stream. In
other words, there's a lot that has to be synoptically be in-
phase for a winter weather event. For now, probabilistic guidance
has the highest probability of snowfall across the south.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

Stratus deck will gradually lift out of western north Texas and
southwest Oklahoma with terminals KSPS and KLAW returning to VFR
conditions by 14-16Z. Otherwise, very low ceilings will persist
across our remaining terminals (except in northern OK) maintaining
LIFR to IFR conditions at least through 16Z with ceilings lifting
slightly to MVFR conditions through the rest of the forecast
period. Our terminals KWWR and KPNC in northern Oklahoma will be
on the far southern periphery of a winter storm moving across the
Central Plains although the impact will be on a lower end with
light sleet changing over to snow before ending by 18Z.  A strong
cold front will continue pushing across our area shifting surface
winds out of the northwest. Expecting sustained winds of 20-30
kts gusting 30-30 kts by 15Z. Will see surface winds and gusts
decreasing after 00Z as the surface low tracks further to the east
weakening the pressure gradient. Northwest surface winds will
still remain breezy after 00Z but gradually weaken toward the end
of this forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  36  14  30  13 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         31  15  36  15 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  40  18  38  17 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           20   8  31  11 /  90   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     34   8  24   7 / 100   0   0   0
Durant OK         59  19  35  17 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
     OKZ004>012.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>006-009>011-
     014>017-021-022.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-023>048-050>052.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...68