Heat in Oklahoma, August 15 to 20, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
618 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

 - Oppressive heat will continue areawide Friday, with afternoon
   temperatures again climbing into the mid 90s to near 100
   degrees, and heat indices up to 110 degrees.

 - Isolated to widely scattered convection will again be possible
   especially Friday afternoon, which may provide some relief to
   the heat. Locally gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall will
   again be possible from the stronger storms.

 - The oppressive heat will continue through the entire forecast
   period, with heat headlines likely to continue for the region
   each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Isolated convection continues as of this writing over portions of
Caddo Parish/Nrn Harrison County, likely the result of residual
outflow bndrys and their interactions atop a still very moist air
mass characteristic of PW's near/in excess of 2 inches, and
lingering instability. This convection has shown a Nwd track, and
while it was not depicted at all amongst even the hi-res progs,
should eventually diminish in the next hour or so. The early
morning water vapor imagery indicates that much drier air aloft
has entrained ESE ahead of a weak upper trough/shear axis,
extending from SE AR into Wrn LA and along the Sabine Valley into
extreme SE TX. Meanwhile, the H500 reflection of this shear axis
continues to lie farther E from NW MS into Cntrl LA/SE TX, with
upper ridging noted over Wrn KS into NW TX expected to drift E
into the Ozarks/Wrn AR into N TX by this afternoon. Secondary
ridging aloft noted over the Ern Gulf remains progged to
retrograde W across the Nrn Gulf this afternoon as well, with the
weak W-E oriented shear axis expected to linger as is over
portions of N LA. With PW's expected to remain abnormally high
near or in excess of 2 inches this afternoon, and the persistent
weakness aloft, isolated to scattered mainly afternoon convection
should again develop across much of the region, more notably over
Cntrl and NE LA. Thus, low to mid chance pops persist over these
areas, with pops tapering back elsewhere across SW AR/NW
LA/extreme Ern TX. Also went with persistence regarding max temps
this afternoon, with readings again climbing to the mid 90s to
near 100 degrees again areawide. Given very little change in the
moist air mass expected again today, dewpoints will again have
trouble mixing out away from the convection, with resultant heat
indices again reaching Advisory criteria areawide and thus, the
Heat Advisory will remain in place as is through early Friday
evening.

The area of localized organized convection noted on the satellite
imagery over the Wrn Gulf early this morning should have little to
no effect on the sensible weather across our region today as it
moves ashore the NE MX coast or far Deep S TX near BRO later this
afternoon/early evening, with any enhanced seabreeze convection
expected to remain along and just inland of the SE TX/extreme SW
LA coast. Did maintain slight chance pops for the early evening in
VC of the weak shear axis which should linger across N LA this
evening, although the various progs remain consistent with the
Ozarks upper ridging expanding a bit farther E into the Mid-South
region tonight and Saturday, which should help to erode what is
left of this shear axis/possibly allow it to drift farther SSW
into S LA/extreme SE TX by Saturday. Thus, any afternoon
convection should be more isolated, diminishing by sunset.

Heat headlines will likely again be needed areawide again through
the upcoming weekend and into much of next week as max temps
remain persistent in the mid 90s/near 100 degrees, with limited
relief in the offing with the potential for isolated to widely
scattered afternoon convection each day.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the forecast
period. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible after 15/18Z with conditions improving by 16/03Z.
Otherwise, southwest winds to increase to up to 8 knots today,
diminishing to 5 knots or less after 16/00Z. /05/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Spotter activation should not be needed Friday, although the
stronger storms will be capable of producing locally gusty winds
and brief heavy rainfall during the afternoon. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  78 100  78 /  20  20  20  10
MLU  96  76  97  76 /  40  20  30  10
DEQ  96  72  96  72 /  20   0  20  10
TXK 100  77 100  76 /  20  10  20  10
ELD  97  74  97  73 /  30  10  30  10
TYR  97  76  97  76 /  10  10  20  10
GGG  98  75  97  75 /  20  10  20  10
LFK  97  74  97  75 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05