Hail and Damaging Wind in Minnesota, August 15, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
201 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple chances for thunderstorms & showers through Monday.

- Potential of heavy rainfall with localized flooding possible
  tonight through the weekend.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible. Slight risk (2 of 5) across E MN
  & W WI this evening/tonight. Wind is the primary concern.

- A trend to a drier, cooler pattern setting in by the middle of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Latest GOES 19 imagery highlights a plume of remnant convective
debris across the Upper MS valley. Water vapor imagery reveals a
compact shortwave embedded within the mid level jet across SD/NE
early this afternoon. The broad ascent provided by the jet &
shortwave should allow convection to redevelop upstream this
afternoon. SPC did extend the Slight Risk (2/5) further west into
the South Dakota this morning. The uncertainty with our forecast
over the next 12+ hours is tied to multiple remnant MCVs from last
nights convection. We can highlight one over west-central MN & one
in northern Iowa. The lingering cloud cover has slowed the warm up
across portions of central & western MN today, but we're beginning
to see the cloud cover scatter out. Dew points have followed the
forecast and have increased into the low to mid 70s - everybody
loves a 70-something dew point, right? The southern MCV is
immediately favored for convective redevelopment as marked by the
ongoing complex of convection over north-central Iowa at this
moment. There is potential for a few showers or storms to cross into
southern Minnesota as that complex tracks eastward along the mean
flow. The second MCV is going to move into an environment that
appears to remain capped across W/C MN. The last several frames of
visible highlight some roll clouds across W MN that may serve as a
starting point for convective development later this
afternoon/evening if we're able to thread the needle. Forecast
soundings to highlight ample shear with the mid-level jet &
shortwave aloft & the moderate to strong instability suggest we see
any convection that may form, grow quickly upscale into an MCS. This
is why potential for damaging wind will remain the primary severe
concern today.

Given that the starting point is already muddied, the uncertainty
only grows. Meteorologically, the mid-level shortwave should
initiate scattered convection overnight that'll track out of the
Dakotas through MN and by Saturday morning into W WI. These storms
could pose an isolated severe threat, but the bigger concern going
forward will be the potential of heavy rain and localized flash
flooding. PWAT values range between 1.7 to 2.0" this afternoon and
remain elevated through the weekend. Any thunderstorms that are able
to form should produce higher rain rates & heavy rain. Convection
should clear the area by late morning with a few storms lingering
over W WI Saturday AM. By Saturday afternoon, it should quiet down
for a brief break before additional convection fires Saturday night.
There is a better signal for slower moving, and possibly training
convection along the stationary boundary overhead Saturday night
into Sunday. This will require close attention as locations impacted
by heavy rain tonight may need a flood watch issued for
Saturday/Sunday. A SPC Marginal risk remains over the area on
Saturday, primarily driven by wind/hail threat. The bigger story is
the Slight Risk for excessive rainfall issued by the WPC. The
pattern would support heavy rain & localized flash flooding as
mentioned previously.

Convection develops Saturday night with additional storms & showers
through Sunday morning. Additional scattered storms or showers will
be possible during the day Sunday. Highs both Saturday and Sunday
remain in the mid 80s with dew points in the 70s. The more
impressive heat will stay tied to I-90 Saturday & could prompt a
heat headline by future shifts. Sunday night into Monday appears the
best signal for widespread rain & possibly heavy rain as the sfc low
tied to another shortwave will track along the stationary boundary
and into the Upper Midwest by Monday morning. QPF amounts from
Sunday night/Monday morning will likely be another 1 to 2"+ in
addition to what falls now through Sunday afternoon. Overall, there
is still a signal for a broad area of 1 to 3" with more localized
heavy rainfall of 3 to 5" likely for areas to receive rain multiple
times. Looking past Monday, there is a signal that we'll a drier &
cooler (or less humid) pattern will take hold by the middle of next
week. Aloft, we'll see northwesterly flow settle in early to mid
week. This will usher in drier, cooler air that is more favor high
temperatures into the 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

While there is still a large amount of uncertainty baked into
this forecast period, I've made an attempt to highlight the
periods of greatest confidence of TS/RA. Unfortunately, I've
stuck to PROB30s as there isn't a clear answer to what unfolds
this evening into tonight. An ongoing complex of thunderstorms
over over the Iowa/Minnesota border should continue to move east
through Iowa. This should keep our southern TAF sites in the
clear through early evening. Scattered TS should develop this
evening with additional TS overnight into Saturday morning. Otherwise
BKN/SCT mid to high level clouds are present for most of the
period. A few sites could see MVFR cigs/vsby as winds decrease
after sunset but return to VFR by the end of the TAF.

KMSP...The prob30s highlight the two periods of concern, but the
better period is still late tonight into early saturday morning
when an organized cluster of TS should impact MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR, chc MVFR/IFR/TSRA. Wind E 5-10kts.
MON...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SE to N 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NE 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BPH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
236 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
161945-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
236 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
through this evening. Greater chance of widespread heavy rain and
thunderstorms arrives overnight into Saturday morning. Storms may
produce damaging wind gusts and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Heavy rain is the primary threat from multiple rounds of showers
and thunderstorms along a stalled boundary through early next
week. A few storms could also occasionally become severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Strus