Drought in Oklahoma, April 1 to 22, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
905 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 902 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

- Strong-to-severe thunderstorms are expected across west-
  central into eastern Oklahoma late Tuesday into Wednesday
  morning. While lower probability, there is additional severe
  weather concern earlier on Tuesday evening. Large hail, damaging
  winds and a tornado risk exist with strongest storms.

- Near-critical to critical fire weather danger returns on
  Tuesday across far western Oklahoma and western-north Texas.
  Additional fire danger is expected on Wednesday behind a front.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue mid-week into next
  weekend. Strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out at this
  time.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Low-impact/pleasant sensible weather will continue over the
coming hours. A reinforcing surface high continues to impinge
across the Southern Plains today. With 60s afternoon
temperatures, mostly sunny skies and light/variable winds,
conditions are excellent for outdoor activities.

A temperate overnight period is expected, with a combination of
increasing southerly winds and high clouds helping to keep
temperatures in the mid to upper-40s. A few wind gusts >35 mph
will be possible across far northwestern Oklahoma towards daybreak
Tuesday.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Tuesday: Potential exists for a high-impact severe and fire
weather day across the region, though uncertainties/caveats do
remain.

A strong longwave trough remains progged to dig across the Desert
Southwest through the day, with a prominent leading shortwave
advancing across the Southern High Plains into the
afternoon/evening. This latter feature is forecast to elicit a
very strong mass response through the day, in advance of an
evolving dryline. The dryline will act as the separation between
notable potential for fire (west/behind) and severe (east/ahead)
severe weather by the afternoon into evening timeframe.

* Fire Weather

A very warm, dry and windy airmass is expected to the west of the
dryline by the afternoon into evening. While there remains cross-
model differences in the position of the dryline by this time,
ensemble/HREF guidance would favor a most likely position
somewhere near or just west of the US Highway 183 corridor. As
such, the aforementioned fire favorable boundary layer (promoting
critical to near-critical condition) may spread into portions of
far western Oklahoma and western-north Texas during the peak burn
period. Expectation for semi-continuous periods of high clouds and
ultimate position of the dryline remain the biggest
uncertainties for this threat.

Still, enough concern persists to upgrade the previous Fire
Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM on Tuesday.

* Severe Weather

The risk for severe weather, including a conditional risk for
significant severe weather, remains evident for much of the WFO
Norman area from Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Potential
for thunderstorm development will be on the upswing by the late
afternoon (4-6 PM), as forcing for ascent/height falls overspreads a
sharpening dryline (and moistening warm sector). The timing of the
lead wave ejection and moisture quality remain the main question
marks for early Tuesday evening potential. If the main forcing
arrives later than currently advertised, and moisture return is
weaker/shallower, then the risk for severe weather will focus
later in the evening (see below). However, if both factors are
timed/weighted correctly, then the development of isolated
supercell thunderstorms is possible, posing a risk for tornadoes,
large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts.

A more likely round of severe convection is likely near and after 12
AM on Wednesday morning, as a cold front begins to advance into
northern/western Oklahoma. A semi-consolidated band of storms is
likely along the front (into at least northern and central
Oklahoma), posing a risk for damaging wind gusts, occasional large
hail and brief tornadoes. A more concerning signal exists across
south-central into southeast Oklahoma, where development of pre-
frontal supercells is possible early on Wednesday morning. Pending
the degree of boundary layer destabilization, in concert with
moisture/theta-e advection, surface-based outcomes (damaging
winds/tornado risk) would be possible here towards daybreak
Wednesday.

* Other Hazards (Non-Thunderstorm Winds/Dust)

Strong southerly winds, with gusts up to 40-45 mph, will be
likely through much of the day on Tuesday. Some uncertainty in
the degree of vertical mixing (into a strong low-level jet) exists
such that a Wind Advisory will not be initiated at this update.
Blowing dust may also be noted across far western areas into the
evening on Tuesday.

Rest of Wednesday/Wednesday Night: The front should slowly progress
east/southeastward into the afternoon on Wednesday, potentially
stalling in far eastern/southeastern zones. Another embedded mid-
level wave is currently advertised to move through the broader
longwave trough late on Wednesday into Thursday morning. This is
likely to yield another round of thunderstorm activity across
western-north Texas into southern/central Oklahoma. At least
isolated instances of severe weather are likely during this period,
with the ultimate magnitude/hazard concern dependent on position of
the quasi-stationary boundary (i.e., warm sector) into early
Thursday.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

This next trough digging into the southeast CONUS going into the end
of the week will bring continued southwesterly flow aloft and
increased mid-level moisture. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
continue Thursday through Saturday. Strong to severe storms are
possible with the upper jet associated with this trough and
eventually closed low providing lift through the weekend. There is a
medium (40-70%) chance of greater than an inch of total rainfall
west of I-44 by the end of the weekend. Meanwhile, east of I-44
there is a high (70-100%) chance for greater than an inch of total
rainfall. There is also a low to medium (30-70%) chance for greater
than 3 inches of total rainfall across southeast Oklahoma by the end
of the weekend. A cold front Friday with the initial trough will
bring cooler temperatures in the 50s for the weekend, coupled with
increased rain chances and cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 902 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

VFR conditions will continue tonight with light winds. Increasing
moisture could lead to MVFR ceilings for a brief period tomorrow
morning, otherwise increasing high clouds are expected. Winds will
strengthen and become southerly by mid to late morning, with gusts
over 30kts expected. Thunderstorm chances still appear too low
(<20%) to include at this time, but can't completely rule out a
storm or two around and after 00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  48  76  56 /   0   0  20  70
Hobart OK         66  47  85  50 /   0   0  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  69  49  85  58 /   0   0  20  60
Gage OK           65  45  84  43 /   0   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     61  44  74  52 /   0   0  20  70
Durant OK         68  49  77  64 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ004-009-
     014-021-033-034-036.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083-084-
     087.

&&

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...08