Ice Storm in Ohio, February 12 to 13, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
203 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...18z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track from the Lower Mississippi Valley to
Northwest Ohio tonight. This low will depart to the northeast into
Thursday, dragging a cold front across the region early Thursday
morning. High pressure will return Friday before another low tracks
northeast through the Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday.
impacts the Ohio Valley on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12:15 PM EST Update...

Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model
guidance. Expect precip to blossom from southwest to northeast
across our CWA during this afternoon through early evening as
isentropic ascent aloft moistens over our region and precip reaches
the surface fairly quickly via the wet-bulb effect. The winter
WX alerts remain unchanged, but will continue to evaluate trends
in our wintry precip accumulation forecast, including ice
accumulations. Please see discussion below for further details.

Previous Discussion...

A wintry mix is still on track to impact
the region today. The main change with this forecast package was
to upgrade Lucas, Wood, and Ottawa Counties to an Ice Storm
Warning with a quarter inch or more of ice expected. The
heaviest icing will occur this evening with surfaces rapidly
becoming ice covered.

Low pressure will develop over the Lower Mississippi Valley today
and track northeast to near Findlay by midnight and continuing
towards Lake Ontario by Thursday morning. This occurs as shortwave
energy races northeast from Texas while a trough pushing south out
of Canada deepens across the Upper Midwest. Temperatures are
starting off in the 20s across the area this morning. Precipitation
during the daytime hours will be characterized as light as
isentropic ascent in the 925-850mb layer spreads north.
Precipitation type will be tricky today as we lose deeper
moisture during the morning. Some light snow is possible this
morning from Mount Vernon east towards Youngstown before we lose
the deeper moisture. After that a light freezing drizzle or
freezing rain will be possible as we continue to have the
shallow ascent with potentially a lack of ice nuclei in the
cloud. Temperatures are forecast to warm through the day with
southern areas starting to creep above freezing by noon and
expanding north during the afternoon across central and eastern
areas. A light glaze of ice is possible outside of the Winter
Weather Advisory but is expected to be both brief and light
before temperatures warm above freezing and did not feel the
threat of icing was sufficient to expand the Advisory.
Temperatures will be a little slower to warm in Northwest
Pennsylvania and they may hold on to enough deep moisture to
maintain a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain longer.
Temperatures in Northwest Ohio will remain the coldest through
the event and will receive the greatest icing.

Precipitation will increase in intensity late this afternoon
into this evening as the low approaches and forcing ramps up
along a tightly packed baroclinic zone draped across northwest
Ohio. Precipitation will also be enhanced this evening by
entrance region jet dynamics from a 150 knot jet aloft. A
southwest to northeast oriented boundary of snow and sleet
transitioning to freezing rain will pivot northwest this evening
as warm air aloft spreads north until most of northwest Ohio
has primarily freezing rain falling. Snow and sleet
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are still possible in Lucas
County before the ice ramps up. Total qpf amounts for the event
are expected to be around .45 in Northwest Ohio with locally
higher amounts. Locations remaining in the Winter Weather
Advisory may eventually warm above freezing and therefore see a
period of rain tonight, and limit the amount of icing. Locations
within the Ice Storm Warning are forecast to remain below
freezing for the duration of the event, therefore receiving the
highest amounts of ice, along with limited amounts of
snow/sleet. Models over the last 24 hours hours have been
trending gradually upward with the expected amount of ice in the
warning area lending confidence to this placement. Surfaces
will rapidly become slick late this afternoon into this evening
in the Advisory and Warning areas.

As the low tracks across Northwest and North Central Ohio tonight,
winds are expected to be generally less than 15 mph with stronger
winds ahead of the low in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.
Winds in this area will see southeast gusts to around 30 mph except
along the Erie shoreline in Northwest Pennsylvania where downsloping
winds may gust to 40 mph. Winds become more of a concern in the Ice
Storm Warning area behind the cold front on Thursday where westerly
winds will gust to 30 mph. High temperatures for the near term will
occur overnight with portions of Northeast Ohio surpassing 40
degrees. Temperatures will fall through the day on Thursday into the
mid and upper 20s. Some scattered snow showers will accompany the
front but an overall drying trend is expected with localized
accumulations around an inch for portions of the snowbelt and less
than an inch elsewhere. With the breezy westerly winds on Thursday,
wind chills will fall into the teens by afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough axis will cross the area Thursday night, likely
resulting in a brief uptick in lake-enhanced snow showers across NE
OH/NW PA. Additional snow accumulations across the higher terrain of
NW PA will be 1 to 2 inches with less than an inch expected across
the remainder of NE OH/NW PA. Any lingering snow showers should
taper off by mid-morning Friday as surface high pressure and a ridge
aloft build east over the region and a brief period of dry weather
is anticipated through early Friday evening. Cold air advection in
addition to clearing skies across the western half of the area will
result in single digit lows Thursday night with lows in the teens
anticipated elsewhere. Wind chills may drop to near or slightly
below zero late Thursday night into Friday morning. Expect highs in
the upper 20s to lower 30s Friday.

An impactful system will begin to influence the area starting Friday
night with a warm front lifting across the region as a deep trough
tracks east across the Plains. Isentropic ascent near and ahead of
the front will result in precipitation chances increasing across
western zones Friday night and expanding across the remainder of the
CWA by Saturday morning. Precip will likely start off as snow
(perhaps moderate at times) Friday night before transitioning to a
rain/snow mix across most of the area Saturday morning and rain by
Saturday afternoon. A deepening surface low over the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys will lift northeast into the region or the central
Appalachians Saturday night and cold air advection on the back side
of the low will allow precip to transition to snow towards the end
of the period.

While there's still uncertainty in precipitation onset/transition
timing and the overall track of the low, moist return flow on the
back side of the upper ridge and possibly a weak LLJ over portions
of the area will likely result in periods of moderate (to possibly
heavy) precipitation rates and quite a bit of QPF. By the end of the
short term period, QPF will likely exceed an inch and possibly even
approach an inch and a half, most of which will be from rainfall
Saturday afternoon and evening. Flooding due to excessive runoff and
ice jams is certainly a concern Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night and there is a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across far
southern zones with a Marginal Risk across the majority of the
remainder of the area. The risk of flooding is slightly lower across
NW OH where QPF due to rainfall will likely remain under an inch. As
if the threat of flooding wasn't enough, there's still potential for
a few inches of snowfall (possibly advisory amounts) before precip
transitions to rain Saturday afternoon with several more inches of
snow possible starting Saturday night as moderate to heavy precip
transitions to snow. Still far too much spread in the track of the
low/timing of the arrival of colder temperatures Saturday night to
get specific with snowfall totals, but impactful snow accumulations
remain possible late Saturday into Sunday (see the long term
discussion for details for Sunday).

Lows will be in the upper teens to mid 20s Friday night before warm
air advection allows temps to climb into the mid 30s to possibly
lower 40s Saturday. Saturday night's lows will likely dip into the
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As mentioned in the short term discussion, there's still some
uncertainty in the exact track of the aforementioned surface low as
it moves into to the Northeast or Mid-Atlantic. Either way, the
local area will be on the back/cold side of the low Sunday with
moist mid-level return flow likely persisting through at least
Sunday morning before the upper trough axis crosses the CWA Sunday
afternoon or evening. Moderate to periodically heavy snowfall rates
remain possible Sunday morning and possibly into Sunday afternoon
and additional (possibly impactful) snow accumulations are possible.
The tight pressure gradient may result in breeze northwest winds and
blowing snow may exasperate impacts. Stay tuned for updates on this
system.

Scattered lake effect/enhanced snow showers downwind from both Lake
Erie and Lake Michigan may persist through Sunday with the best
chance of snow across the snowbelt region of NE OH and NW PA Sunday
night into early Monday. Weak surface high pressure may attempt to
build into the region Monday into Tuesday, which could allow any
remaining precip to diminish.

Sunday's highs will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s, but much
colder air will arrive Sunday night into early next week. Expect
highs in the teens Monday and Tuesday with overnight lows in the
single digits expected Sunday night and Monday night. Temperatures
may dip close to zero degrees Monday night. It will remain breezy
Sunday night and wind chills of 10 degrees below zero (or colder)
are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Weather conditions for aviation weather will quickly
deteriorate this afternoon as a warm from lifts northward
across the area. Generally we have MVFR to lower end MVFR
ceilings across the area early this afternoon. But widespread
IFR ceilings will quickly move later this afternoon into the
early evening. There is a some potential for ceilings to drop to
LIFR category for a couple TAF sites like MFD amd CAK late this
evening. We did not mention the possible LIFR in the actual TAF
due to some uncertainty. Light wintry precipitation in the form
of light snow, light sleet, and light freezing rain/drizzle
will also quickly develop this afternoon over the region. All
areas and TAF sites have at least the risk of seeing a light
wintry for several hours later this afternoon and evening.
Locations like MFD, CAK, CLE, and YNG will have a few hours of
that wintry weather threat before temperatures slowly warm up
above freezing this evening with a change over to just light
rain and or drizzle. TOL, FDY, and ERI will have a longer
duration or time for the wintry mix and light freezing rain into
the late evening hours. Light fog and or misty conditions will
also move in this afternoon into overnight with visibilities
lowering 1sm to 3sm. Most of the precipitation will gradually
end from west to east very early tomorrow morning before 12z. A
cold front will slide through late tonight there may be brief
window between 10z and 15z of some light snow behind the front
in the morning with some 2sm to 5sm drop in visibility as well.
Most ceilings will rise from IFR to low end MVFR by the end of
the TAF period late Thursday morning or midday. Winds will start
out from the east and southeast 8 to 13 knots with a few gusts
up to 20 knots this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front.
Winds will shift from a southerly direction tonight to a
westerly direction by early Thursday morning with the cold
frontal passage. Winds will become gusty on Thursday from the
west 12 to 16 knots with gusts over 25 knots.

VFR to MVFR ceilings

Outlook...Non-VFR may linger with scattered lake effect snow
showers across the snowbelt of northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania Thursday into Thursday evening. Non-VFR is
expected to return with widespread rain and/or snow Friday night
through late Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Unsettled marine conditions will develop today and persist through
the next several days. Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots will develop
over the lake by mid to late morning before shifting to the
southeast as low pressure lifts northeast into the region. Winds
over most of the lake may diminish below 20 knots as the low lifts
across the eastern basin this evening into tonight, but downsloping
off of higher terrain in Erie County, PA will result in southeast
winds of 25 to 30 knots in the nearshore zones east of Conneaut, OH.
Winds quickly shift to the west/southwest behind the low Thursday
morning and increase to 20 to 30 knots east of the Islands by late
morning. Winds peak in the eastern basin Thursday afternoon, but
westerly winds 15 to 25 knots will persist over the entire lake
through early Friday morning. Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots are
expected into Friday afternoon before flow becomes more
southeasterly ahead of an approaching warm front Saturday night and
southerly behind the warm front on Saturday. Low pressure will lift
northeast from the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
Saturday night and winds will likely shift to the north/northwest
and increase above 20 knots behind the low early Sunday morning
through Sunday night.

Most of Lake Erie remains ice covered and waves will be limited in
ice-free areas. Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended
until further notice due to extensive ice cover, but may need to
keep an eye on the water levels in the western basin as
west/southwest winds increase Thursday morning and afternoon. Ice
may break up and/or shift in response to stronger northeast winds
today and as stronger southeast winds develop in the eastern basin
tonight (although the strongest winds will likely occur in areas of
fast ice tonight). Ice will likely break and/or shift due to
stronger winds Thursday and late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Ice Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for OHZ003-006-007.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for OHZ008-009-
     017>019-027-028.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     OHZ010>014-020>023-029>031-036-037-089.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10/Jaszka
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
246 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

OHZ003-006-007-131945-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-
246 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Ice Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Ice Storm Warning.

Locally heavy rain is possible Friday night into Saturday with
accumulating snow possible Saturday night into Sunday. Please stay
tuned for potential impacts over the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ009-019-131945-
Erie-Huron-
246 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Locally heavy rain is possible Friday night into Saturday with
accumulating snow possible Saturday night into Sunday. Please stay
tuned for potential impacts over the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ008-017-018-131945-
Sandusky-Hancock-Seneca-
246 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Ice Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Ice Storm Warning.

Locally heavy rain is possible Friday night into Saturday with
accumulating snow possible Saturday night into Sunday. Please stay
tuned for potential impacts over the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ027-028-131945-
Wyandot-Crawford-
246 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Dense Fog Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Locally heavy rain is possible Friday night into Saturday with
accumulating snow possible Saturday night into Sunday. Please stay
tuned for potential impacts over the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ047-131945-
Knox-
246 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

A light glaze of ice is possible on untreated surfaces this
afternoon before changing to rain by early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Locally heavy rain is possible Friday night into Saturday with
accumulating snow possible Saturday night into Sunday. Please stay
tuned for potential impacts over the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ010>014-020>023-030-031-089-131945-
Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Ashland-Wayne-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
246 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

 Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Locally heavy rain is possible Friday night into Saturday with
accumulating snow possible Saturday night into Sunday. Please stay
tuned for potential impacts over the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ032-033-038-131945-
Stark-Mahoning-Holmes-
246 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A light glaze of ice is possible on untreated surfaces this
afternoon before changing to rain by early this evening

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Locally heavy rain is possible Friday night into Saturday with
accumulating snow possible Saturday night into Sunday. Please stay
tuned for potential impacts over the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ029-036-037-131945-
Richland-Marion-Morrow-
246 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
 Dense Fog Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Locally heavy rain is possible Friday night into Saturday with
accumulating snow possible Saturday night into Sunday. Please stay
tuned for potential impacts over the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ001>003-131945-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
246 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Locally heavy rain is possible Friday night into Saturday with
accumulating snow possible Saturday night into Sunday. Please stay
tuned for potential impacts over the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-131945-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
246 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Westerly winds will increase to 30 knots on Lake Erie on Wednesday.
This could result in some movement of the ice fields and possible
closure of shipping channels. Do not venture onto the ice on Lake
Erie.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.