A very unstable atmosphere developed over central and parts of western North Dakota where dewpoint values climbed into the 70s. A dryline moved into the area with thunderstorms rapidly developing, many becoming severe.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
A very unstable atmosphere developed over central and parts of western North Dakota where dewpoint values climbed into the 70s. A dryline moved into the area with thunderstorms rapidly developing, many becoming severe. Large hail was the primary threat, with reports of golf ball size hail in Wells, Burleigh, and Hettinger Counties. There were a few severe wind reports, with the strongest reported wind gust of 69 mph occurring in Kidder County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 9, 11:21 AM MST, 2 hours 37 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 121 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions are expected today, with widespread high temperatures in the 90s. Dangerous heat index values expected across south central North Dakota this afternoon into this evening. - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening, and again Thursday afternoon into the night. - Temperatures will cool down to the 70s to end the work week, before warming back up again for the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 120 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Main update is the issuance of Heat Advisory in south central North Dakota this afternoon into this evening. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, combined with highs in the mid 90s, will bring heat index values over 100 degrees. This will continue until a surface front moves through the area this evening, thus have issued a Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT. Otherwise, continue to monitor for the chance of severe weather today. Atmosphere remains capped, although mesoanalysis shows this cap breaking down in the next 2 to 4 hours. If high temperatures can warm even slightly more than forecast, we may also reach convective temperatures by mid to late afternoon. Late morning update from SPC keeps the outlooks and hazards the same. Those with outdoor plans today should stay weather aware. UPDATE Issued at 1005 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Limited updates needed this morning. A few isolated thunderstorms are trying to develop along the warm front this morning. There is plenty MUCAPE already this morning, although shear is limited and the atmosphere overall remains capped. Added some slight pops for a few areas this morning and afternoon to account for this isolated activity. Otherwise look for a hot day for most areas, with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. UPDATE Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 An area of showers and thunderstorms has been trekking across north central North Dakota through the early morning hours, on the nose of a low-level jet and in a narrow swath of uncapped instability. Did have a few storms get pretty strong and had a couple reports of hail around the size of nickels. SPC mesoanalysis page illustrates that deep layer shear is very low, as expected, only around 25 knots, so storms are more of the pulse-type thunderstorm which is what's been observed. Most of the convective activity has been dying out as it moves east through Bottineau and McHenry County area, although we are seeing some increased lightning activity still. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 This morning, a stout upper high was placed over the Desert Southwest, with northwest flow across the Dakotas on the northeast side of this feature and upstream of troughing over the Great Lakes. Further upstream, a closed low and attendant trough are moving onto the Pac NW coast, with a secondary wave in northern British Columbia. At the surface, high pressure was drifting off to our east, while a low centered in the southern Canadian Prairies had a warm front and surface trough extending into central Montana. It will be quite hot and humid today, with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s, and likely seeing a few locations hit 100 F across western North Dakota where humidity is lower and it is closer to the low-level thermal ridge impinging on the region. Apparent temperatures are getting close to Heat Advisory criteria (100 degrees F), although for a relatively limited area across central North Dakota where there is the most favorable overlap between air temperatures and dew points. Looking upstream across the Central Plains, we aren't seeing dew points exceeding 70 F, so thinking NBM dew points are reasonable. Besides the heat and humidity, main focus of today is potential for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms across southwest and central North Dakota. As the warm front moves across the state today, deterministic guidance is advertising a weak impulse moving through flow that turns mostly zonal by this evening. Although there have been some concerns of capping with such warm temperatures in the lower levels, most high-resolution guidance has been consistent in developing convection somewhere across southwest and into south central North Dakota, depending on where the embedded impulse ends up tracking, late this afternoon. As previous discussions have noted, the environment is characterized by extreme instability but quite marginal shear, which will likely limit the upper extent of potential hazards with any thunderstorms that develop. A likely scenario is that there is explosive initial development where large hail is possible, and a tornado can't be ruled out, especially with any initial storms along the boundary. The lack of shear will limit the lifespan of any storms, with severe gusts possible as the storms collapse, with somewhat inverted V soundings due to hot surface temperatures, and DCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg. There are some hints of an eventual cluster/upscale growth that would also favor a wind threat, with current CAMs highlighting this potential across the James River Valley and into eastern North Dakota. Best timing window is 3 to 11 PM CDT, starting in the southwest and ending east. We are also carrying some low POPs across the west late tonight into Thursday morning, with another weak impulse moving through, but with limited instability thinking this will just be showers and a few rumbles of thunder. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. As the upper trough base approaches from the Canadian Prairies on Thursday, a trailing cold front will approach from the northwest. Some capping from warm 850mb temperatures will likely keep convection at bay initially, although the approaching wave and attendant cold front will provide more robust synoptic forcing compared to today. It's another case of very high instability in the warm sector, but bulk shear is forecast to be just as low, if not slightly lower, than today, especially in the area of highest buoyancy. Shear starts to increase as the front comes in but there doesn't seem to be much favorable overlap, although the one area that could potentially see higher shear with sufficient instability would be the north central. Some of the higher- res guidance isn't as set on convective development compared to global models, but thinking there is still potential for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms across parts of the state Thursday evening and into the overnight hours. We do have some questions on how far to the southwest we could see severe storms in the area outlined as level 2 out of 5 risk, with some guidance hinting that dew points will be lower and temperatures will be higher than what the NBM has. Things will also be very dependent on the timing of the cold front. Highs on Thursday will be in the lower 80s northwest to lower 90s southeast, with dew points in the 60s central and east that will make it feel pretty humid for another day. Friday will be much cooler and less humid in the post-frontal air mass, with highs dropping down into the 70s. There could be a few isolated showers and non-severe thunderstorms from the influence of cyclonic flow aloft as the upper low exits to the east, but blended POPs are only around 10 to 20 percent and taper off in the afternoon. We then dry out and warm up through the weekend with zonal flow aloft dominating, with highs back into the widespread 80s for Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation chances return to start the work week with temperatures cooling into midweek. NSSL machine learning guidance has some low probabilities for severe weather Monday and Tuesday, and then again looking further ahead to next weekend when the NBM has temperatures warming up again. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 120 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Mainly VFR conditions expected through the forecast period, with some showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening. Look for clear to partly cloudy skies today. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return this afternoon and continue through this evening, mainly for southern, central, and eastern sites. Confidence was only high enough to include PROB30 mention in TAFs at this point. An isolated to scattered severe storm is possible through this evening. Shower and thunderstorm activity becomes isolated tonight into Thursday morning, with confidence not high enough to include precipitation mention. Overall VFR conditions expected through tonight, with brief MVFR conditions possible with any thunderstorm activity. Southerly winds today will eventually become a westerly wind throughout the forecast period as a front moves across the state from west to east. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ019-020-034>036-042-045>047-050. && UPDATE...Anglin DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...Anglin
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND 307 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 NDZ003>005-011>013-018-021>023-025-033-037-040-041-043-044-102015- Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-Dunn-McLean- Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Stark-Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams- 307 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 /207 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms could develop this afternoon and evening. The expected hazards are hail up to the size of golf balls, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and a tornado possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms could develop Thursday afternoon and evening. The expected hazards are hail up to the size of golf balls, damaging winds gusts up to 60 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. NDZ001-002-009-010-017-031-032-102015- Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-McKenzie-Golden Valley-Billings- 307 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 /207 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North Dakota and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible through tonight. Severe weather is not expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms could develop Thursday afternoon and evening. The main expected hazards are hail up to the size of golf balls, damaging winds gusts up to 60 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. NDZ019-020-034>036-042-045>048-050-051-102015- Mercer-Oliver-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan- La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey- 307 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 /207 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central North Dakota and southeast North Dakota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A Heat Advisory is in effect through much of the evening. See more details at www.weather.gov/bis. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms could develop this afternoon and evening. The expected hazards are hail up to the size of golf balls, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and a tornado possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms could develop Thursday afternoon and evening. The expected hazards are hail up to the size of golf balls, damaging winds gusts up to 60 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
238 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025
NDZ041-043-044-092115-
Hettinger ND-Adams ND-Bowman ND-
238 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BOWMAN...SOUTHERN
HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM MDT...
At 237 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Hettinger, moving southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Hettinger, Mott, Reeder, Haynes, Bucyrus, and Gascoyne.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southwestern North Dakota.
&&
LAT...LON 4595 10313 4621 10311 4647 10240 4633 10212
4594 10219
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 297DEG 16KT 4606 10258
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
MDJThe Bismarck radar (KBIS), 167 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:57 UTC.
17 hail, 2 thunderstorm wind, 1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple vehicles were severely dented and roofs were damaged.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1283240, 1283241, 1283242, 1283243, 1283244, 1283245, 1283246, 1283247, 1283248, 1285063, 1285064, 1285065, 1285066, 1285067, 1285073, 1285068, 1285069, 1285070, 1285071, 1285072.